Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Quad Cities, IA

217 
WWUS53 KDVN 070318 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
918 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

IAC107-183-070400-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170307T0400Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-
918 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR KEOKUK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 916 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kalona to near Harper to near Martinsburg, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Trained spotters have reported 60 mph 
         with this storm in Keokuk County. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Sigourney, Kalona, Wellman, Riverside, Hedrick, Brighton,
Richland, Ainsworth, Crawfordsville, Keswick, South English, Harper,
Martinsburg, Kinross, Hayesville, Coppock, Richmond, Keota and Ollie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Iowa. A tornado watch also remains in effect until
400 AM CST for southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4151 9222 4151 9153 4150 9151 4148 9150
      4147 9151 4143 9148 4116 9149 4116 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 261DEG 30KT 4151 9175 4131 9207 4115 9226 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

UTTECH

047 
WWUS53 KDVN 070336
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
936 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

IAC107-183-070400-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170307T0400Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-
936 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR EASTERN KEOKUK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 936 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kalona to near Washington to near Wayland, moving
east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This storm has a history of 
         producing damaging winds.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Kalona, Wellman, Riverside, Brighton, Richland,
Ainsworth, Crawfordsville, Kinross, Coppock, Richmond, Keota, West
Chester, Noble, Washington Airport, Marr Park, Haskins, Lake Darling
State Park, Talleyrand and Washington County Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Iowa. A tornado watch also remains in effect until
400 AM CST for southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4151 9153 4150 9151 4148 9150 4147 9151
      4143 9148 4116 9149 4116 9203 4151 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 259DEG 52KT 4151 9167 4136 9172 4116 9162 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

UTTECH

113 
WWUS53 KDVN 070342
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
942 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

IAC107-070352-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170307T0400Z/
Keokuk IA-
942 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Iowa. A tornado watch also remains in effect until
400 AM CST for southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9185 4151 9188 4151 9153 4150 9151
      4148 9150 4147 9151 4143 9148 4116 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 267DEG 52KT 4151 9164 4139 9158 4116 9151 

$$

IAC183-070400-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170307T0400Z/
Washington IA-
942 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 942 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kalona to 6 miles south of Riverside to near
Olds, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This line has a history of 
         producing damaging winds.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Kalona, Wellman, Riverside, Brighton, Ainsworth,
Crawfordsville, Coppock, Richmond, West Chester, Noble, Washington
Airport, Marr Park, Haskins and Washington County Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Iowa. A tornado watch also remains in effect until
400 AM CST for southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9185 4151 9188 4151 9153 4150 9151
      4148 9150 4147 9151 4143 9148 4116 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 267DEG 52KT 4151 9164 4139 9158 4116 9151 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

UTTECH

262 
WWUS53 KDVN 070354
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
954 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

IAC183-070404-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170307T0400Z/
Washington IA-
954 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 1000 PM CST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Iowa. A tornado watch also remains in effect until
400 AM CST for southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9185 4151 9188 4151 9153 4150 9151
      4148 9150 4147 9151 4143 9148 4116 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 270DEG 41KT 4152 9156 4140 9150 4117 9143 

$$

UTTECH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
544 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Deep 980 mb surface low was located just south of Grand Forks, ND.
Extending from the low was a dryline through eastern NE all
the way to West TX, with a cold front not too far behind the
dryline. Convection over far eastern NE into western IA has
rather quickly evolved into a QLCS, with several reports of
marginal severe hail around 1 inch and damaging winds to 60 mph
with these storms... an idea of the threat that exists here
this evening. Tornado watch 61 issued earlier covers a good
portion of Iowa and extends as far east as roughly a Manchester
to Fairfield line until 10 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Hi-res convecting allowing models have been pretty consistent on
depicting a broken line of storms sweeping across the area
from west to east after 6 pm through midnight ahead of the cold
front as it overtakes the dryline. A corridor of at least
moderate instability (SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg) and strong deep
layer shear (0-6km 50-60 kts) will surge into the cwa prior to
the arrival of the storms supportive of a severe threat with
storms capable of wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to around quarter
size. Given the strong environmental shear aided by strengthening
low level jet will also come a threat for tornadoes, mainly
along the leading edge of any line segments with favorable
orientation of 0-3km shear vector to storm motion or with any
backing of surface winds aided by mesoscale processes. Storms
will be moving quite fast at likely around 50 mph or higher making
for much less reaction time, thus imperative to have that action
plan ironed out now ahead of the storms arriving this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Forecast focus on very high winds and extreme/dangerous grass fire
conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, major pattern
change with winter roaring back with the potential for several
snowstorms within the next 10 days.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Intense cyclone (968 mb) will be slowly
tracking from near Winnipeg, Manitoba to Hudson Bay during this time
frame. Tight gradient around this cyclone will bring very strong
winds to the cwa. On Tuesday, there is very deep mixing to about 500
mb which will tap 40-50 knot winds at the top of the mixed layer
with excellent downward momentum transfer. West winds should be
sustained at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph, possibly to
50 mph. These values should also occur on Wednesday. Later shifts
will need to consider at least a wind advisory, if not a high wind
warning in some portions of the cwa. Decided not to issue a high
wind watch or wind advisory yet due to the severe weather threat to
deal with this evening. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will be in
the 50s, with highs on Wednesday in the 40s north and 50s south.
There will also be an extreme grass fire risk Tuesday and Wednesday
during the afternoon. See fire weather section below.

Convection Tuesday afternoon: Have added isolated thunder in our
north half due to very steep low level lapse rates (8c/km) and very
cold air aloft (-33c at 500 mb). Inverted-V shown on forecast
soundings would promote enhanced surface winds if a shallow storm
can develop, in addition to the very strong gradient winds.

Thursday: Starting to turn cooler as 1050 mb high begins building
out of western Canada. Northeast winds of around 10 mph will be over
the cwa with maximum temperatures in the 40s north and 50 south.

Friday through the weekend: Anytime you have a very intense cyclone
you know a major pattern change will take place. 850 mb temperatures
of -40c were noted in northwest Canada and this very cold airmass
will settle southward across the northern United States.  A storm
system is expected to track from southern KS to the mid Atlantic
states Friday night and Saturday, on the leading edge of the arctic
air. This has the potential to spread accumulating snow across much
of the cwa with highs in the 30s. However, it is too early for exact
amounts. Sunday should be dry with high pressure over the cwa.

Early next week: A clipper system looks to spread more accumulating
snow in our northern cwa, with a cold rain in our south. However,
low confidence a week away in regards to the track/intensity of this
system. Also, low confidence in temperatures depending on snow
cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

A fast moving cold front will pass through the terminals between 07/02Z
and 07/04Z. Expect a period of MVFR/IFR conditions in brief heavy rain
and wind gusts over 40 MPH. After the line passes, skies will clear
with westerly winds of 15 to 30 MPH. South winds of 20 to 35 MPH will
occur until the front passes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Grassland Fire Danger Index values will be in the extreme category
for Tuesday and Wednesday, during the afternoon hours.

Dry vegetation combined with low humidity values and windy
conditions will result in an extreme risk of grass fires Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rainfall this evening will moisten the ground somewhat
but sunshine, low humidity, and very windy conditions on Tuesday
will quickly dry out the ground.

Winds Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to gust up to 45 mph,
possibly to 50 mph. Minimum relative humidity levels both days are
forecast to be 20 to 30 percent, with temperatures in the 50s. Any
grass fire would quickly get out of control.

Did consider a fire weather watch for the entire cwa but due to this
evenings severe weather threat decided to wait. Conditions certainly
seem extreme for later shifts to issue a red flag warning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The overall trend of the Mississippi River forecasts has been
slightly lower. The current forecasts for minor flooding at most
points on the Mississippi River between L&D 15 and Burlington, IA do
take into account predicted rainfall this afternoon and evening. Due
to the fast movement of the storms this evening rainfall should have
little to no effect on river levels for areas that have already
crested and minimal effects for those areas that are at or
downstream of the crest.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols
FIRE WEATHER...Haase
HYDROLOGY...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities Ia IL
401 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071015-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
401 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Light precipitation and increasing low level moisture will help
to limit the fire weather threat today. However, a south wind
gusting near 40 mph and abundant dry fuels suggest any grass fires
that do develop would spread rapidly.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with
widespread thunderstorms this evening. Expect scattered severe
storms, with the highest risk between 7 pm and midnight. The
primary threats are damaging winds around 70 mph and isolated
tornadoes. The secondary threat is hail up to quarter size.

Minor flooding is occurring or forecast on portions of the
Mississippi River. Please see the latest Flood Statements and
Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Winds will gust up to 45 mph Tuesday and up to 40 mph on Wednesday.

The strong winds combined with low humidity levels will result in a
very high risk of uncontrolled grass fires Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 7 pm and midnight
tonight.

RP Kinney/08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
553 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-070500-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney,
Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington,
Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll,
Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin,
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
553 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

...Strong south winds expected until mid to late evening...then
strong storms to pass...

South winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH will occur ahead
of a cold front with associated storms and showers. The front will
pass between 8 PM and midnight from west to east. These storms may
produce winds over 45 MPH.

Individuals should ensure all loose items are secured outside.
Motorists, especially in high profile vehicles, should drive
defensively and expect winds to impact vehicles.

Nichols

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BELLE PLAINE        41.90N 92.29W
03/06/2017  M70 MPH          BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
831 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     KEYSTONE                42.00N 92.20W
03/06/2017  M70 MPH          BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
835 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W MARENGO             41.80N 92.09W
03/06/2017  M80.00 MPH       IOWA               IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
836 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W STANLEY             42.64N 91.89W
03/06/2017  E60 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PETERS