Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Des Moines, IA

972 
WWUS53 KDMX 282249
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
549 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

IAC079-083-282259-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-170628T2245Z/
Hardin IA-Hamilton IA-
549 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDIN AND
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
north central Iowa.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Des Moines .

LAT...LON 4236 9314 4240 9352 4254 9353 4256 9318
      4256 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 277DEG 39KT 4239 9286 

$$

REV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
319 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

19z radar had a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over north
central Iowa that was being aided by a PV anomaly moving across
southern Minnesota and to a lesser extent 850mb warm air advection.
18z SPC mesoanalysis showed 1500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the warm
sector with around 30 to 40 knots of shear. A subtle shortwave
moving through central Nebraska will help to provide lift for
scattered thunderstorms. While discrete cells with all modes of
severe weather is possible initially, expect storms to become more
linear with more of a damaging wind and hail threat through this
evening. Some of the short terms models have shown the possibility
for heavy rainfall over southern Iowa overnight as a cold front
stalls out. This is shown with the HRRR, RAP, WRF-ARW and NMM cores
having 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. This may lead to
isolated flash flooding threat tonight and even if that does not
come to fruition, this rainfall along with expected rainfall in the
coming days may prime southern Iowa for flash flooding.

Next concern is Thursday afternoon convection which is expected to
bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall to the
state, especially southern portions. By late tomorrow afternoon,
CAPE values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/kg with deep layer shear
of 40 to 50 knots, which is more than sufficient for supercells.
With this in mind and warm front draped across the area, supercells
with the potential for isolated tornadoes and large hail will be
possible in the afternoon and early evening.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The pattern will remain active through the period although the
severe potential should not be as great with gradually building
heights and weaker flow through the cornbelt. An MCS could very
well be ongoing at onset somewhere around a warm frontal boundary
sitting along the IA/MO border as the current NW CONUS short wave
lift reaches the Midwest. With MLCAPEs 2500-4000 j/kg and 0-6km
shear 30-50kts that instability/shear parameter space would
certainly suggest discrete supercells, at least initially, are
possible with the potential for the current Enhanced Risk to be
expanded eastward with time. 0-1km shear and SRH values near the
boundary would also support tornadoes, and these values increase
into the evening with the increasing low level jet so all modes of
severe weather are possible. Heavy rain parameters are not
climatologically extreme based on the 00z NAEFS percentiles but it
may not take that considering what normals are for late June and
the aforementioned synoptic lift. Many models are also suggesting
1-2” maxes so will add heavy rain mention considering the
airmass and degree of moisture transport. The triple point and
front will not move quickly, still likely over southern IA by 06z.

The synoptic scale lift should exit to our south and east into
Fri morning although some weak convection may still develop in the
base of the trough and broad lingering low level cyclonic flow,
which could potential also repeat northeast during peak heating
Sat. This should be followed by brief surface ridging and lull and
then quick return flow recovery into Sun ahead of another weak NW
flow wave. This will bring varied degrees of thunderstorm chances
back into the forecast early next week, although neither shear,
instability and heavy rain parameters look remarkable for now.
This will also usher in decreased confidence with the models
having difficulty handling the weakening flow and short wave
progression. The ECMWF and GFS both depict a weak Missouri Valley
wave into Monday with the GFS slower and stronger than suggested
by the GEFS, the EC and its ensembles so some token PoPs will
linger to account for these possibilities through Tue Night.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms were moving over the northern
terminals early this afternoon and have handled these with VCTS.
Additional storms are expected to develop later this afternoon
ahead of a cold front and move east this evening over central Iowa
terminals. These storms will pose a strong to severe wind gusts
and hail threat for the terminals. While most of the showers and
storms will have ended by mid-evening, they may persist over the
southern terminals tonight as the cold front stalls.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ansorge
LONG TERM...Small
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
452 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-291000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
452 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A few strong storms remain possible this morning with the main
concern of locally heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds are possible.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes
remain possible. Locally heavy rain is also anticipated and may
lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
forecast Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds and even a few isolated tornadoes are possible. Heavy rain
will again pose the threat of flash flooding Thursday night.

More storms are possible Sunday night into Monday. The
predictability for severe weather remains low at this time, but
locally heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely needed this afternoon and tonight and
again Thursday afternoon and evening.

KLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
424 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S FONTANELLE          41.25N 94.56W
06/28/2017                   ADAIR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
431 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TORNADO          4 S EARLHAM             41.43N 94.13W
06/28/2017                   MADISON            IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
432 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TORNADO          4 S EARLHAM             41.43N 94.11W
06/28/2017                   MADISON            IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
438 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TORNADO          3 SW DEXTER             41.48N 94.26W
06/28/2017                   ADAIR              IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 MILES SOUTH OF I80, 4 MILES EAST OF P26.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
449 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             ELKHART                 41.79N 93.51W
06/28/2017  M0.25 INCH       POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
458 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             4 SE NEW MARKET         40.70N 94.85W
06/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CW