Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
913 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The synoptic pattern through Sunday will be characterized
by upper level troughing over the northern plains and upper
midwest and a baroclinic zone across the southern and central
plains. A component of the mid level flow across the Rockies
will result in weak low level troughing over the southern high
plains and low level moisture inflow into southwestern Kansas
along with weak cold fronts approaching from the north before
stalling. Unseasonable strong mid to high level flow across the
Rockies with embedded disturbances can be expected. There is no
sign even after this weekend of upper level ridging returning to
the plains. Instead, a mainly zonal flow pattern with embedded
disturbances will develop and persist, along with continued ample
low level moisture from the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated grids and forecast products through tonight to align with
current trends and thinking. Presently, weak thunderstorms are
entering western Morton county, with stronger activity in eastern
Colorado approaching Hamilton county from the west. Included some
pops in the short term to accomodate this activity. HRRR/12z NAM
solutions spread this activity into the SW zones through midday,
and will probably need to increase pops again for this scenario.
Storm intensity will likely increase by afternoon as instability
increases. Much more concerned about severe potential this evening
and tonight. New 12z NAM shows continuity from many of its
previous runs, showing MCS generation starting near the KS/CO
border north of Syracuse around 7 pm, with a severe forward-
propogating MCS blasting its way SE across SW KS this evening and
tonight, exiting the southern zones (Oklahoma border) by 4 am.
Included large hail and damaging winds in the grids for the NW
zones this afternoon. More importantly, included damaging winds
and heavy rain in the grids for all zones this evening and
tonight. A high end damaging wind event is possible, given the
strong convective /QPF signal 12z NAM is displaying. Along with
increasing severe mention in products, will be enhancing severe
risk in social media, perform a conference call with emergency
management around midday, and coordinate with SPC to increase
severe risk categories (particularly for wind and for tonight).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A weak cold front will approach western Kansas this evening as
a disturbance in northwesterly flow passes to our northeast.
Ample low level moisture, surface heating and 40-50kt 0-6 km
bulk shear all point to the possibility of thunderstorms,
some severe. Supercell structures are possible this afternoon
and early this evening before the convection evolves into a
large cluster, possibly accompanied by damaging wind. This event
will end in the late evening hours along the Oklahoma state line.
Hail as large as tennis balls and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph
are expected with the strongest storms. Highs today should reach
into the 80s after the morning fog burns off. Temperatures tonight
will fall back into the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

There are chances for thunderstorms every day, except perhaps
for Sunday. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern although
given the aforementioned upper level pattern with upper level jet
persisting, severe weather certainly can't be ruled out.
Placement of low level boundaries and air mass recovery will be
key to any severe episodes and these won't be known with much
detail until perhaps the day before. High temperatures will be
mainly in the upper 70s to 80s unless it happens to be raining in
the afternoon. Lows should be in the lower to middle 60s given
that dewpoints should stay close to that range along with light
nighttime winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

LIFR stratus and areas of LIFR fog can be expected at Hays
through 14z Thursday. Low clouds and fog will also be possible
around Garden City, Dodge City, and Liberal but at this time it
does not appear that the fog will be as dense as what is currently
expected at Hays early this morning. The LIFR/IFR stratus will
gradually improve through late morning from southwest to northeast
with VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites by 18z Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an upper
level disturbance this afternoon as it exits the Central Rockies
and moves out into the Western High Plains. Areas most favorable
for this convection will be along a surface cold front that will
be cross southwest Kansas between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
Models indicating VFR conditions likely this afternoon and early
tonight but mvfr to possibly even a brief period of IFR conditions
will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. These stronger
storms will also producing very heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  83  66 /  40  70  20  50
GCK  85  62  81  65 /  50  70  20  50
EHA  87  62  80  64 /  30  80  20  50
LBL  90  65  82  67 /  20  80  20  50
HYS  84  62  82  65 /  50  60  10  50
P28  90  67  85  68 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-075>079.

&&

UPDATE...Turner
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110915-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 /311 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms with localized heavy rain are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening. These could be severe with hail as
large as tennis balls and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. An
isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Fog: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There are chances for thunderstorms with locally heavy rain every
day, with the lowest chance on Sunday. Severe storms with hail
and damaging wind can't be ruled out.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storms spotters will be needed this afternoon and early tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
857 AM MDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ061-101600-
Hamilton KS-
857 AM MDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM
MDT...

At 857 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Holly, or 20 miles west of Syracuse, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse, Coolidge and Medway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10157 3780 10156 3779 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 268DEG 25KT 3803 10212

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1023 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ061-074-101615-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
1023 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND STANTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT/1015 AM MDT/...

At 1023 AM CDT/923 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles northwest of Manter, or 18 miles northwest of
Johnson City, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City and Big Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10204 3782 10154 3743 10155 3759 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 278DEG 16KT 3772 10204

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1108 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ074-075-085-101700-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-
1108 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORTON...WESTERN
GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON CDT...

At 1107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles south of Big Bow, or 11 miles east of Johnson City, moving east
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Big Bow, Hickok and The Milepost Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 10158 3761 10120 3729 10135 3738 10156
      3739 10156 3739 10157 3744 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 289DEG 30KT 3751 10156

TURNER