Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

531 
WGUS63 KDDC 110947
FFADDC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017


KSZ043-061>063-074>078-080-081-084>090-111100-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170811T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Scott-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-
Kiowa-Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake, Syracuse, 
Lakin, Deerfield, Garden City, Johnson City, Ulysses, Sublette, 
Satanta, Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, Greensburg, Haviland, 
Pratt, Elkhart, Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, Plains City, Fowler, 
Ashland, Minneola, Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, 
Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
447 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017 /347 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwestern Kansas has 
been cancelled. The heavy rains have moved out of the area and 
additional flooding is not expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Initial thunderstorm complex across SW KS currently will continue
eastward and will regenerate to some extent this afternoon,
particularly along its southern periphery (likely near or south of
the Oklahoma border). Severe threat from these storms has been
marginal, with wind gusts to near 60 mph, some hail, and locally
very heavy rainfall. Satellite imagery shows sky clearing rapidly
behind this initial convection, with full sun across western
counties and eastern Colorado. As such, still expect 80s areawide
this afternoon, with the atmosphere recovering and CAPE
rebuilding. In other words, thinking is this initial activity will
not deter the expected thunderstorm event this evening. Speaking
of which, still expecting a significant forward-propogating MCS
across at least portions of SW KS this evening and tonight. 12z
NAM is very aggressive with this scenario, and assuming the
boundary layer will recover this afternoon, it appears reasonable.
Thunderstorms will redevelop along the CO/KS border late this
afternoon, then propogate SE. Shear/CAPE combination will support
supercells initially, especially across WFO Goodland's CWA, and
some of this large hail potential will likely impact the NW zones
early this evening. During the 7-10 pm timeframe, thunderstorms
are expected to grow upscale into the MCS, with NAM/GFS and other
models seeming to want to favor the SW zones (west and south of
Dodge City) for the highest impact. Bowing line segments will
deliver strong to damaging winds, and continued to mention this
damaging wind potential in the grids for all zones through late
tonight. In addition, heavy rainfall will accompany this MCS.
Scott City measured rainfall rates of 3-4"/hour earlier, and high
PW will support widespread rainfall from the expected organized
complex. Given Goodland and Wichita are issuing a flash flood
watch, will go ahead and connect the dots to include SW KS. Storm
movement should accelerate as the MCS matures, limiting the
flooding threat to at least some extent.

Cold front/convective outflow combination will race through SW KS
this evening with winds becoming strong and gusty NE. High
confidence of post-frontal stratus/fog/mist developing across all
zones through Friday morning, and included areas of fog in the
grids. Feel NE winds will remain elevated enough to deter dense
fog formation, but with a saturated soil and boundary layer, it
won't take much to reduce visibility. Expected MCS to exit into
Oklahoma during the 4-7 am timeframe.

Friday...Cooler and more stable, and only mentioned isolated rain
showers in the morning. Stratus and fog will hold for at least the
first half of the day, but may not break all day across the SW
zones. Max temperature grids in the lower 80s are dependent on
some afternoon sunshine, but kept mid to upper 70s across the
SW zones.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

There are chances for thunderstorms every day, except perhaps
for Sunday. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern although
given the aforementioned upper level pattern with upper level jet
persisting, severe weather certainly can't be ruled out.
Placement of low level boundaries and air mass recovery will be
key to any severe episodes and these won't be known with much
detail until perhaps the day before. High temperatures will be
mainly in the upper 70s to 80s unless it happens to be raining in
the afternoon. Lows should be in the lower to middle 60s given
that dewpoints should stay close to that range along with light
nighttime winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Complicated TAF package with convection likely impacting aviation
at various times through tonight, followed by IFR/LIFR stratus
cigs Friday morning. Tried to keep the 18z TAFs simple for now,
acknowledging that many amendments will be needed over the next 24
hours based on convective/radar/stratus trends. Strong convection
will impact LBL/GCK and surrounding areas through midday. Primary
convective event is expected during the 00-09z Fri time frame,
when models depict an organized convective complex impacting most
if not all of the airports. Primary risk from this convection will
be outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 kts. Inserted convective
TEMPO groups in the 18z TAFs when storms are most likely.
Convective outflow-reinforced cold front will also pass this
evening with gusty NE winds, gusting to near 30 kts even outside
of convection. Finally, have high confidence that flight
categories will degrade after 06z Fri, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs
expected. Reduced vis in BR/FG also expected Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  65  82  66 /  50  80  20  50
GCK  85  62  81  65 /  80  70  20  50
EHA  88  62  78  64 /  40  70  20  50
LBL  91  65  81  67 /  80  70  30  50
HYS  84  61  82  65 /  50  50  10  50
P28  90  68  85  68 /  50  80  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110915-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 /311 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms with localized heavy rain are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening. These could be severe with hail as
large as tennis balls and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. An
isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Fog: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There are chances for thunderstorms with locally heavy rain every
day, with the lowest chance on Sunday. Severe storms with hail
and damaging wind can't be ruled out.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storms spotters will be needed this afternoon and early tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1023 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ061-074-101615-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
1023 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND STANTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT/1015 AM MDT/...

At 1023 AM CDT/923 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles northwest of Manter, or 18 miles northwest of
Johnson City, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City and Big Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10204 3782 10154 3743 10155 3759 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 278DEG 16KT 3772 10204

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1108 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ074-075-085-101700-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-
1108 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORTON...WESTERN
GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON CDT...

At 1107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles south of Big Bow, or 11 miles east of Johnson City, moving east
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Big Bow, Hickok and The Milepost Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 10158 3761 10120 3729 10135 3738 10156
      3739 10156 3739 10157 3744 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 289DEG 30KT 3751 10156

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1121 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ043-101700-
Scott KS-
1121 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL NOON CDT...

At 1120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across western Scott county, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Modoc, Grigston, Shallow Water, Pence, Manning, Scott
State Lake and The Tractor Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 10071 3828 10072 3828 10112 3868 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 273DEG 37KT 3846 10093

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1136 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ075-076-085-086-101715-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
1136 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT...EASTERN STEVENS AND SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
PM CDT...

At 1135 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moscow, or 11 miles northeast of Hugoton, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Hugoton, Moscow, Cave and Woods.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 10143 3745 10126 3735 10077 3700 10090
      3700 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 287DEG 41KT 3728 10120

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSZ044-045-063-064-076>078-101800-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Haskell KS-Ness KS-Ford KS-
1203 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORD...EASTERN FINNEY...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT...WESTERN NESS...WESTERN HODGEMAN...LANE...GRAY
AND NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms east
of Scott City and Garden City. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Cimarron, Ness City, Dighton, Jetmore, Pierceville,
Ingalls, Ransom, Healy, Ensign, Utica, Alamota, Charleston, Arnold,
Shields, Beeler, Howell, Pendennis, Kalvesta and Amy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9992 3811 9988 3755 10005 3766 10079
      3812 10068 3865 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 282DEG 29KT 3858 10056 3809 10055 3770 10063

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW WOODS             37.12N 101.14W
08/10/2017  E60 MPH          STEVENS            KS   PUBLIC

            TWO TO THREE INCH TREE LIMBS WERE BROKEN.
            THE TIME WAS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

LEE