Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Dodge City, KS

706 
WWUS53 KDDC 102204
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSC145-185-102245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-170810T2245Z/
Pawnee KS-Stafford KS-
504 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL PAWNEE AND STAFFORD COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Seward, or 10
miles south of Great Bend, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Saint John, Stafford, Hudson, Seward, Radium, Dillwyn, Zenith and Big
Salt Marsh at Quivira Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3784 9888 3826 9900 3826 9858 3794 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 315DEG 25KT 3821 9883 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

964 
WWUS53 KDDC 102228
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

KSC145-102238-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-170810T2245Z/
Pawnee KS-
528 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3809 9890 3819 9871 3798 9848 3794 9847
      3784 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 323DEG 22KT 3808 9876 

$$

KSC185-102245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-170810T2245Z/
Stafford KS-
528 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL STAFFORD COUNTY...

At 528 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Hudson, or 5 miles north of Saint John, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Saint John, Stafford, Hudson, Dillwyn and Zenith. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9890 3819 9871 3798 9848 3794 9847
      3784 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 323DEG 22KT 3808 9876 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
344 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Initial thunderstorm complex across SW KS currently will continue
eastward and will regenerate to some extent this afternoon,
particularly along its southern periphery (likely near or south of
the Oklahoma border). Severe threat from these storms has been
marginal, with wind gusts to near 60 mph, some hail, and locally
very heavy rainfall. Satellite imagery shows sky clearing rapidly
behind this initial convection, with full sun across western
counties and eastern Colorado. As such, still expect 80s area wide
this afternoon, with the atmosphere recovering and CAPE
rebuilding. In other words, thinking is this initial activity will
not deter the expected thunderstorm event this evening. Speaking
of which, still expecting a significant forward-propagating MCS
across at least portions of SW KS this evening and tonight. 12z
NAM is very aggressive with this scenario, and assuming the
boundary layer will recover this afternoon, it appears reasonable.
Thunderstorms will redevelop along the CO/KS border late this
afternoon, then propagate SE. Shear/CAPE combination will support
supercells initially, especially across WFO Goodland's CWA, and
some of this large hail potential will likely impact the NW zones
early this evening. During the 7-10 pm timeframe, thunderstorms
are expected to grow upscale into the MCS, with NAM/GFS and other
models seeming to want to favor the SW zones (west and south of
Dodge City) for the highest impact. Bowing line segments will
deliver strong to damaging winds, and continued to mention this
damaging wind potential in the grids for all zones through late
tonight. In addition, heavy rainfall will accompany this MCS.
Scott City measured rainfall rates of 3-4"/hour earlier, and high
PW will support widespread rainfall from the expected organized
complex. Given Goodland and Wichita are issuing a flash flood
watch, will go ahead and connect the dots to include SW KS. Storm
movement should accelerate as the MCS matures, limiting the
flooding threat to at least some extent.

Cold front/convective outflow combination will race through SW KS
this evening with winds becoming strong and gusty NE. High
confidence of post-frontal stratus/fog/mist developing across all
zones through Friday morning, and included areas of fog in the
grids. Feel NE winds will remain elevated enough to deter dense
fog formation, but with a saturated soil and boundary layer, it
won't take much to reduce visibility. Expected MCS to exit into
Oklahoma during the 4-7 am timeframe.

Friday...Cooler and more stable, and only mentioned isolated rain
showers in the morning. Stratus and fog will hold for at least the
first half of the day, but may not break all day across the SW
zones. Max temperature grids in the lower 80s are dependent on
some afternoon sunshine, but kept mid to upper 70s across the
SW zones.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Thunderstorm chances continue throughout the long term as weak
shortwaves move through the area. Timing of these disturbances
will be a challenge. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern
although given the aforementioned upper level pattern with upper
level jet persisting. Severe weather also can't be ruled out with
large hail and damaging winds. Well below normal temperatures are
in store during the long term, with highs only reaching the low to
mid 80s through early next week then mid to upper 80s as we head
into the beginning of next week. Lows are expected to range from
around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 60s across
south central Kansas each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Complicated TAF package with convection likely impacting aviation
at various times through tonight, followed by IFR/LIFR stratus
cigs Friday morning. Tried to keep the 18z TAFs simple for now,
acknowledging that many amendments will be needed over the next 24
hours based on convective/radar/stratus trends. Strong convection
will impact LBL/GCK and surrounding areas through midday. Primary
convective event is expected during the 00-09z Fri time frame,
when models depict an organized convective complex impacting most
if not all of the airports. Primary risk from this convection will
be outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 kts. Inserted convective
TEMPO groups in the 18z TAFs when storms are most likely.
Convective outflow-reinforced cold front will also pass this
evening with gusty NE winds, gusting to near 30 kts even outside
of convection. Finally, have high confidence that flight
categories will degrade after 06z Fri, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs
expected. Reduced vis in BR/FG also expected Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  82  65  83 /  70  20  40  60
GCK  62  81  64  83 /  70  20  40  50
EHA  62  78  64  85 /  70  30  40  30
LBL  65  81  66  85 /  70  30  50  50
HYS  61  82  64  81 /  60  10  30  50
P28  68  85  67  82 /  70  20  40  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Friday morning for KSZ043-061>063-074>078-080-081-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110915-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 /311 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms with localized heavy rain are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening. These could be severe with hail as
large as tennis balls and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. An
isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Fog: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There are chances for thunderstorms with locally heavy rain every
day, with the lowest chance on Sunday. Severe storms with hail
and damaging wind can't be ruled out.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storms spotters will be needed this afternoon and early tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.88W
08/10/2017                   TREGO              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED AT DARI QUEEN, 521 BARCLAY AVE,
            WAKEENEY, KS 67672. SIDING TORN OFF AND
            WRAPPED AROUND NEIGHBORS TREE.

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             2 SE WAKEENEY           39.00N 99.86W
08/10/2017  E2.50 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE WAKEENEY           39.00N 99.86W
08/10/2017                   TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BROKEN AT HOUSE. EST. WIND 60 MPH.

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WAKEENEY            39.02N 99.95W
08/10/2017                   TREGO              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON I-70 AT
            MM130. TIME IS APPROXIMATE.

&&

MLG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 W ANTONINO            38.79N 99.56W
08/10/2017                   ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            ~60 MPH WIND.

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             3 W TIMKEN              38.47N 99.24W
08/10/2017  E1.50 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&