Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Dodge City, KS

494 
WWUS53 KDDC 062217 RRA
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSC135-195-062245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0333.000000T0000Z-171006T2245Z/
Ness KS-Trego KS-
517 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN NESS AND SOUTHERN TREGO COUNTIES...

At 517 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Arnold, or 17 miles northwest of Ness City, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Ransom, Utica, Arnold, Trego Center and Cedar Bluff Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9963 3851 10003 3857 10019 3870 10025
      3870 10015 3890 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 209DEG 28KT 3869 10004 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

638 
WWUS53 KDDC 062233
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSC135-195-062243-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0333.000000T0000Z-171006T2245Z/
Ness KS-Trego KS-
533 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NESS AND SOUTHERN
TREGO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3888 9963 3851 10003 3857 10019 3870 10025
      3870 10015 3890 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 209DEG 28KT 3880 9996 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...Updated Short and Long Term Sections...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Latest subjective surface analysis depicts a nearly stalled front
stretching from west-central KS near Syracuse into north-central
KS. Anomalously high boundary layer moisture for October via
dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 ahead of this front already is
triggering MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg. The 18 UTC DDC
sounding is still showing a decent level of inhibition around
800-hPa that will keep convection from developing through 20-21
UTC. However, as a vigorous upper wave currently over the Rockies
approaches the region later this afternoon, this cap will
disappear quickly.

With 0-6 bulk shear over 40 kt, supercells look likely and with
elongated hodographs via strong upper trop winds, any supercells
that develop could drop baseball or larger hail. In addition, with
backed low-level winds along the front for locations near and
west of highway 283, a few tornadoes will also be possible as 0-1
SRH exceeds 150. The best threat for tornadoes will exist from
3-6 pm, especially along a Johnson to Garden City to Jetmore line.
With this stated, given that the mean cloud layer winds are
nearly parallel to this front, upscale growth of the convection
into line segments is very likely by early evening. Strong winds
will be the main driving force by that point. Final issue will
involve training of convection with rain rates producing some
potential for flooding. Given nearly saturated soils along and
east of highway 183, a flood watch has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For details on thunderstorms and severe convective threat see Meso
discussion above. Otherwise, aforementioned front will slide
quickly southeast through Kansas this evening to overnight as the
main upper trough moves into the Great Plains. This will
effectively shut down precipitation chances from west to east
during the late evening to early overnight. The pressure jump
behind this front will trigger a brief period with higher gusts
via an isallobaric wind but otherwise winds will ease gradually
overnight with low temps in the 40s to lower 50s expected. This
will set the stage for a mild and dry Saturday as subsidence
behind the exiting upper wave dominates while surface high
pressure allows winds to turn light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Sunday will be a transition day between upper waves moving across
the region as the next large upper trough digs into the
Intermountain West. This will allow the lee trough to deepen with
associated south to southwest winds bringing mild temps. This
will then set the stage for another active weather day Monday into
early Tuesday as the system mentioned above plows into the Great
Plains. This will push a strong cold front through the region
Monday into Monday night. While threat for severe weather looks
minimal with this event a chance for rain will still exist over
most of the region. Main question behind this front will be
potential for some patchy frost Monday night and possibly again
the next night as a clear sky, light winds, and very dry air
promotes temps in the 30s.

Remainder of the week will then see the pattern repeat yet again
with the wave from Mon/Tue exiting to the east while another system
digs into the Intermountain West. This will result in dry conditions
with temperatures rebounding back above normal Wednesday and
Thursday but then a chance of storms returning by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Active late afternoon to evening expected for the southwest into
central KS terminals. Specifically, a cold front will push through
the region later today into tonight with thunderstorms likely
including several severe storms. Highest threat for storms will
exist between 6 to 10 pm this evening as individual storms
congeal into a line. Outside of these storms ceilings will remain
at worst in the MVFR range. Behind this front winds will turn to
the north and become gusty this evening to early overnight and as
cloud clear during the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  77  50  79 /  90   0   0   0
GCK  47  77  47  78 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  47  77  48  79 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  50  78  48  80 /  90   0   0   0
HYS  50  75  49  78 /  90   0   0   0
P28  55  77  51  81 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
KSZ031-046-065-066-079.

&&

MESOSCALE...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 /152 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Conditions continue to favor a risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms starting later this afternoon and continuing into
the evening hours. For locations along and west of highway 183,
the risk will be mostly confined between 4 to 8 pm. These storms
will be capable of producing very large hail with maximum hail
size of at least baseballs highly probable with some potential for
even larger hail. In addition damaging winds up to 70 mph and
even a few tornadoes will exist with these storms. For locations
east of highway 183, the risk will be confined more into the 7 to
11 pm time frame with damaging winds up to 80 mph possible along
with hail up to golf ball size. Very heavy rainfall may result in
some localized flooding for areas along and east of highway 183
during the evening where a wet and saturated soil already exists
from rainfall in the last week.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Monday night and again Tuesday night may see temperatures drop to
near freezing for locations mainly west of highway 283.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
415 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW CHARLESTON        37.88N 100.61W
10/06/2017  E60 MPH          GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
421 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             5 SSW PIERCEVILLE       37.81N 100.72W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL WAS JAGGED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             6 SW KALVESTA           37.99N 100.35W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE AT CROSS SECTION OF B
            RD. AND HIGHWAY 23.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             9 NE CHARLESTON         37.96N 100.45W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             10 NW KALVESTA          38.15N 100.43W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
453 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             JETMORE                 38.09N 99.89W
10/06/2017  E1.75 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WITH NICKEL TO GOLF BALL SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

MR