Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...Updated Short and Long Term Sections...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Latest subjective surface analysis depicts a nearly stalled front
stretching from west-central KS near Syracuse into north-central
KS. Anomalously high boundary layer moisture for October via
dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 ahead of this front already is
triggering MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg. The 18 UTC DDC
sounding is still showing a decent level of inhibition around
800-hPa that will keep convection from developing through 20-21
UTC. However, as a vigorous upper wave currently over the Rockies
approaches the region later this afternoon, this cap will
disappear quickly.

With 0-6 bulk shear over 40 kt, supercells look likely and with
elongated hodographs via strong upper trop winds, any supercells
that develop could drop baseball or larger hail. In addition, with
backed low-level winds along the front for locations near and
west of highway 283, a few tornadoes will also be possible as 0-1
SRH exceeds 150. The best threat for tornadoes will exist from
3-6 pm, especially along a Johnson to Garden City to Jetmore line.
With this stated, given that the mean cloud layer winds are
nearly parallel to this front, upscale growth of the convection
into line segments is very likely by early evening. Strong winds
will be the main driving force by that point. Final issue will
involve training of convection with rain rates producing some
potential for flooding. Given nearly saturated soils along and
east of highway 183, a flood watch has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For details on thunderstorms and severe convective threat see Meso
discussion above. Otherwise, aforementioned front will slide
quickly southeast through Kansas this evening to overnight as the
main upper trough moves into the Great Plains. This will
effectively shut down precipitation chances from west to east
during the late evening to early overnight. The pressure jump
behind this front will trigger a brief period with higher gusts
via an isallobaric wind but otherwise winds will ease gradually
overnight with low temps in the 40s to lower 50s expected. This
will set the stage for a mild and dry Saturday as subsidence
behind the exiting upper wave dominates while surface high
pressure allows winds to turn light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Sunday will be a transition day between upper waves moving across
the region as the next large upper trough digs into the
Intermountain West. This will allow the lee trough to deepen with
associated south to southwest winds bringing mild temps. This
will then set the stage for another active weather day Monday into
early Tuesday as the system mentioned above plows into the Great
Plains. This will push a strong cold front through the region
Monday into Monday night. While threat for severe weather looks
minimal with this event a chance for rain will still exist over
most of the region. Main question behind this front will be
potential for some patchy frost Monday night and possibly again
the next night as a clear sky, light winds, and very dry air
promotes temps in the 30s.

Remainder of the week will then see the pattern repeat yet again
with the wave from Mon/Tue exiting to the east while another system
digs into the Intermountain West. This will result in dry conditions
with temperatures rebounding back above normal Wednesday and
Thursday but then a chance of storms returning by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Active late afternoon to evening expected for the southwest into
central KS terminals. Specifically, a cold front will push through
the region later today into tonight with thunderstorms likely
including several severe storms. Highest threat for storms will
exist between 6 to 10 pm this evening as individual storms
congeal into a line. Outside of these storms ceilings will remain
at worst in the MVFR range. Behind this front winds will turn to
the north and become gusty this evening to early overnight and as
cloud clear during the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  77  50  79 /  90   0   0   0
GCK  47  77  47  78 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  47  77  48  79 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  50  78  48  80 /  90   0   0   0
HYS  50  75  49  78 /  90   0   0   0
P28  55  77  51  81 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
KSZ031-046-065-066-079.

&&

MESOSCALE...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...AJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
252 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 /152 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Conditions continue to favor a risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms starting later this afternoon and continuing into
the evening hours. For locations along and west of highway 183,
the risk will be mostly confined between 4 to 8 pm. These storms
will be capable of producing very large hail with maximum hail
size of at least baseballs highly probable with some potential for
even larger hail. In addition damaging winds up to 70 mph and
even a few tornadoes will exist with these storms. For locations
east of highway 183, the risk will be confined more into the 7 to
11 pm time frame with damaging winds up to 80 mph possible along
with hail up to golf ball size. Very heavy rainfall may result in
some localized flooding for areas along and east of highway 183
during the evening where a wet and saturated soil already exists
from rainfall in the last week.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Monday night and again Tuesday night may see temperatures drop to
near freezing for locations mainly west of highway 283.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Freeze: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE GARDEN CITY        37.99N 100.85W
10/06/2017                   FINNEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            2" TO 4" TREE BRANCHES DOWN. SHINGLES OFF
            ROOFS.

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             10 NW GRAY              38.27N 99.75W
10/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             10 S BAZINE             38.31N 99.68W
10/06/2017  E1.25 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             5 SE ASH VALLEY         38.26N 99.15W
10/06/2017  E2.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY 1.5 INCH HAIL, BUT THE LARGEST WAS
            2.25".

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
10/06/2017                   FINNEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            ONE 15 FOOT DIAMETER SPRUCE TREE DOWN.
            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN. FENCES BLOWN
            DOWN, PARTS OF A GARAGE ROOF AND SHINGLES
            GONE. BENT FLAG POLE.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSZ061>063-074>077-084-085-087-070030-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Stevens KS-
Hamilton KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-Morton KS-
628 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHEASTERN MORTON...SOUTHERN KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY...GRANT...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...EASTERN STANTON...NORTHWESTERN STEVENS...WESTERN
GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT/630 PM MDT/...

At 627 PM CDT/527 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Ulysses, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Ulysses, Lakin, Sublette, Satanta, Holcomb, Deerfield,
Pierceville, Copeland, Big Bow, Plymell, Hickok, Ryus, Tice, Garden
City Regional Airport, The Lowe Elevator and The Milepost Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3769 10172 3823 10073 3744 10041 3733 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 235DEG 37KT 3757 10140

UMSCHEID