Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
410 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold
front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier
conditions for the weekend. Unseasonably cool weather will
continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Early afternoon heating has resulted in showers and
storms.

Storms have been going up and down rather fast. Several
SPS so far. Shear is weak.

Adjusted grids more.

Expect activity to weaken by early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday looks like more of the same with warm and humid
conditions and scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Shear remains weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
20Z update...

No major changes were made to the Fri-Wed forecast. The main
focus remains severe storm potential on Friday per SPC SLGT
risk outlook. Updated the HWO to include mention of severe
storms with damaging winds/large hail and added severe wording
to wx grids and zone text/web forecast. Models are showing
somewhat better agreement with the system for Monday so added
10-15 percent to pcpn probs based on a blend of NBM/WPC and
ECENS MOS.

Previous discussion...
The main player in the medium range will be a relatively strong
cold front that will be approaching the region Friday and
moving through the area Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Falling heights and strengthening winds aloft will
combine with moderate-strong instability to support the risk of
severe storms. Models show CAPEs in the 1000-2000J range by
afternoon along with increasing deep layer shear. The GFS/ECMWF
even paint a relatively broad area of enhanced low level EHI's
by afternoon and evening which should support some of the storms
becoming supercells.

Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

Sunday will be dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure slides
over the state. The cooler than normal conditions will continue
into at least early next week.

A new shortwave and frontal system are made to approach by
later Monday into the overnight. There are the usual timing
differences in features between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF so I
used a model blend for POP guidance which brings a new surge of
showers into the area during the day.

Drier air is slated to return into midweek as the frontal
system is moved off to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have VCTS in some of the TAFS, as storms went up rather
fast today, compared to yesterday.

Expect activity to weaken by sunset.

Some fog later tonight, fcst based on models and tendency
of last night.

.OUTLOOK...
Thu...AM valley fog. Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA with local impacts.
Fri...Stronger and more widespread storms possible with front,
mainly late.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/La Corte
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

PAZ059-064>066-031645-
Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024>026-033>035-031645-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-027-028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058-063-
031645-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
319 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ019-027-049-050-021945-
Union PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-Southern Centre PA-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE...MIFFLIN...
SNYDER...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Poe
Valley State Park, moving east at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belltown, Milroy, Coburn, Woodward, Weikert, McClure, Poe Valley
State Park, Spring Mills, Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Reeds Gap
State Park, Siglerville and Wagner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 7759 4085 7763 4093 7727 4069 7727
      4069 7729 4066 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 261DEG 8KT 4078 7752

Jung

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW SALEM               39.90N  76.79W
08/02/2017                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701320

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE PINE ACRES        40.32N  76.73W
08/02/2017                   DAUPHIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701321

TYBURSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
408 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ027-050-022045-
Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
408 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MIFFLIN AND SNYDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Belleville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Highland Park, Belltown, Yeagertown, Alfarata, Belleville,
Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Milroy, Burnham, Strodes Mills, McClure,
Reeds Gap State Park, Wagner, Siglerville and Maitland.

LAT...LON 4060 7775 4083 7743 4084 7737 4083 7736
      4081 7735 4081 7733 4073 7724 4053 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 230DEG 24KT 4061 7766

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
503 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ042-022130-
Sullivan PA-
503 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Lincoln Falls. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dushore and Forksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 7664 4155 7636 4142 7652 4155 7667
      4158 7665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 302DEG 3KT 4155 7660

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
629 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ042-022315-
Sullivan PA-
629 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
northwest of Ricketts Glen State Park. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dushore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7625 4138 7630 4142 7647 4154 7641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 105DEG 2KT 4146 7637

DeVoir