Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
134 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold
front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier
conditions for the weekend. Unseasonably cool weather will
continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon heating has resulted in showers and
storms.

Storms have been going up and down rather fast. Several
SPS so far. Shear is weak.

Adjusted grids more.

Expect activity to weaken by early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Thursday looks like more of the same with warm and humid
conditions and scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Shear remains weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main player in the medium range will be a relatively strong
cold front that will be approaching the region Friday and moving
through the area Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Falling heights and strengthening winds aloft will combine with
moderate-strong instability to support the risk of severe
storms. Models show CAPEs in the 1000-2000J range by afternoon
along with increasing deep layer shear. The GFS/ECMWF even
paint a relatively broad area of enhanced low level EHI's by
afternoon and evening which should support some of the storms
becoming supercells.

Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

Sunday will be dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure slides
over the state. The cooler than normal conditions will continue
into at least early next week.

A new shortwave and frontal system are made to approach by
later Monday into the overnight. There are the usual timing
differences in features between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF so I
used a model blend for POP guidance which brings a new surge of
showers into the area during the day.

Drier air is slated to return Tuesday as the frontal system is
moved off to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have VCTS in some of the TAFS, as storms went up rather
fast today, compared to yesterday.

Expect activity to weaken by sunset.

Some fog later tonight, fcst based on models and tendency
of last night.

.OUTLOOK...
Thu...AM valley fog. Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA with local impacts.
Fri...Stronger and more widespread storms possible with front,
mainly late.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Chance of showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
July 2017 was the 2nd and 7th wettest July on record at
Harrisburg and Williamsport respectively. The monthly rainfall
total at Harrisburg was 9.53", with 7.45" of rain being measured
at Williamsport.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

PAZ059-064>066-031645-
Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024>026-033>035-031645-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-027-028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058-063-
031645-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
126 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ065-066-021800-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
126 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER AND YORK
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Yorklyn, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
York, Columbia, Weigelstown, Elizabethtown, Spry, North York, Mount
Wolf, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Valley Green, Bainbridge, East York,
Yorklyn, Hallam, Yorkana, Tyler Run-Queens Gate, Marietta, Maytown,
Manchester, Emigsville and Wrightsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 7693 4018 7677 4017 7675 4013 7674
      4012 7672 4016 7670 4015 7668 4017 7666
      4017 7663 4004 7648 3991 7665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 131DEG 5KT 4003 7665

Steinbugl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PLEASANT MILL     40.72N  77.01W
08/02/2017                   SNYDER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES/WIRES DOWN IN WEST PERRY TWP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701318

STEINBUGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
154 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ052-021830-
Northumberland PA-
154 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Port Trevorton, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leck Kill, Urban, Rebuck, Trevorton, Port Trevorton, Dalmatia and
Herndon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 7662 4066 7671 4065 7680 4062 7684
      4063 7686 4061 7689 4061 7691 4060 7692
      4062 7694 4064 7694 4072 7686 4080 7685
      4081 7661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 274DEG 12KT 4070 7693

Steinbugl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE RICHFIELD          40.72N  77.09W
08/02/2017                   SNYDER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES/WIRES DOWN IN WEST PERRY TWP

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701318

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHADLE                  40.71N  77.00W
08/02/2017                   SNYDER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN PERRY TWP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701319

STEINBUGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
241 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ019-027-049-050-021915-
Union PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-Southern Centre PA-
241 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE...MIFFLIN...
SNYDER...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Poe
Valley State Park, moving east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belltown, Coburn, Beaver Springs, Weikert, Millheim, Troxelville,
Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Aaronsburg, Woodward, Laurelton
Center, McClure, Poe Valley State Park, Reeds Gap State Park,
Richfield, Beavertown, Siglerville and Hartleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 7728 4069 7730 4071 7755 4089 7756
      4097 7716 4069 7711 4068 7716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 268DEG 20KT 4081 7747

Jung