Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS State College, PA

844 
WWUS51 KCTP 052051
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

PAC001-041-052058-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-170905T2115Z/
Adams PA-Cumberland PA-
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ADAMS AND CENTRAL CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 3993 7695 4010 7705 4017 7697 4017 7691
      4019 7693 4019 7691 4020 7692 4022 7690
      4022 7684 4017 7675 4013 7674 4006 7666
      4005 7653 3995 7648 3991 7639 3987 7638
      3972 7624 3972 7698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 263DEG 31KT 4008 7676 3979 7675 

$$

PAC133-052115-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-170905T2115Z/
York PA-
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR YORK COUNTY...

At 448 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Manchester to Glen Rock, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Parkville, Red Lion, Spry, Weigelstown, Dallastown, York, Lower
Allen, New Cumberland, York Airport and Siddonsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 7695 4010 7705 4017 7697 4017 7691
      4019 7693 4019 7691 4020 7692 4022 7690
      4022 7684 4017 7675 4013 7674 4006 7666
      4005 7653 3995 7648 3991 7639 3987 7638
      3972 7624 3972 7698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 263DEG 31KT 4008 7676 3979 7675 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Jung

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will progress very slowly across the region this
evening and practically stall overhead tonight. A deepening
upper level trough will swing slowly across the Great Lakes
Wednesday and Thursday. The high pressure which will build in at
the surface late this week will provide a quiet weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms run in two lines - one along the front
which is rather narrow and has little thunder at all. The lead
area of storms does have some taller cells, and WW 480 has been
issued. The CAPE is over 1500Joules on the RAP 0-hour, with
D-CAPE much lower. The temps and dewpoints do support the high
CAPEs and bulk shear is very high at 50kts over the SE counties.
No cu out ahead of this main line, so the possibility for
development ahead of the line is very low at this time.

These storms will continue to the east steadily, and could make
isolated damaging wind gusts and, less likely, large hail. The
forcing and best upper level wind passes to the east very
quickly, so the severe threat should be over before sunset,
except for far Srn Lancaster Co.

Rainfall could be locally heavy, but flash flooding not expected
as cells are moving and the line is, as well, and not parallel
to each other. Main threat is damaging wind, but there is a
small possibility of weak spin-up type tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Worries for later tonight are two. One, fog and low stratus
development and, second, the possibility/expectation of a wave
of low pressure riding northward along the coast and rain
redeveloping back in the colder/stable air. The wet and calm air
will not be dried much by the air moving in behind the cold
front. Have kept the forecast very continuous with previous
with higher than chc POPs bubbling up from the S later tonight.

Mins tonight rather mild in the SE but around 50F in the NW
where some clearing is already occuring. The rain falling over
the eastern half of the area on Wed should keep the temps down
well below normals in the L-M60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will be exiting the area from south to north Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The best chance for showers on
Thursday will be over the far north as the upper level trough
swings through. Southern areas begin to clear by afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary clips the northern counties on Friday
but precipitation diminishes by evening and doesn't progress any
further south. High pressure will build into the region for the
weekend making for plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the
60s.

Any effects from possible moisture from Hurricane Irma would be
at the tail end of this forecast period and would be based on
the ultimate forecast track.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Significant TSRA are through all but MDT and LNS. They will be
producing very heavy rain and some gusty winds. But, they should
be to the east of those two terminals by 22-23Z. The few showers
left in a thin line to the north of and parallelling the main
line seems to be the cold front. The wind shift is there, but no
gustiness to the winds there. After some brief improvement to
the flying conditions over much of the area, the CIG and VIS
will lower again later this evening/tonight. Have taken many
sites down to IFR in fog and the western terminals may go down
below FL010 on the CIG. A shield of rain may bubble up from the
south late tonight and affect mainly places to the east of UNV.
This rain may linger much of the day on Wed, but will confine
the IFR mentions to overnight and very shortly after sunrise.

Front pushes far enough to the east to allow for improvement
late in the day Wed and Wed PM. Upper level trough swinging
through the Upper Great Lakes will create some mainly-daytime
showers across the northern tier/half of PA Thu-Fri.

.Outlook...
Thu/Fri...MVFR north. VFR elsewhere. Sct showers mainly north.

Sat-Sun...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Tyburski
AVIATION...Dangelo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-061930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-061930-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any significant weather or damage to
the NWS through normal reporting methods.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

PAZ026>028-034>036-056-063-064-051930-
Perry PA-Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Adams PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD...ADAMS...
HUNTINGDON...FRANKLIN...MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...FULTON...CUMBERLAND...AND
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Doylesburg to Berkeley Springs. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chambersburg, Waynesboro, Shippensburg, Greencastle, Carlisle, St.
Thomas, Plainfield, Wayne Heights, Ickesburg, Fort Loudon, Locust
Grove, Barnes Gap, Mercersburg, New Bloomfield, Guilford, Willow
Hill, Big Cove Tannery, Rockhill Furnace, Big Spring State Park and
Spruce Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7849 4051 7766 4058 7706 3972 7744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 239DEG 41KT 4023 7771 3962 7824

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

PAZ036-056-057-063-065-052030-
Perry PA-York PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Dauphin PA-
337 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF DAUPHIN...YORK...
FRANKLIN...CUMBERLAND...AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Bloserville to near Shippensburg to
Scotland. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Plainfield and Bloserville around 340 PM EDT.
  Walnut Bottom and Newville around 345 PM EDT.
  Carlisle, Schlusser and Carlisle Springs around 350 PM EDT.
  Hogestown, New Kingstown and Wertzville around 400 PM EDT.
  Mechanicsburg and Mount Holly Springs around 405 PM EDT.
  Camp Hill, Lemoyne and Lower Allen around 410 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Orrstown, York
Haven, Three Mile Island, Dauphin and Landisburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 7772 4036 7739 4045 7667 4023 7658
      4019 7660 4015 7670 4012 7672 4011 7671
      4006 7681 4004 7708 4006 7709 4007 7714
      4003 7719 3995 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 263DEG 34KT 4023 7732 4008 7751 3998 7760

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW WAYNESBORO         39.72N  77.62W
09/05/2017  M51 MPH          FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701446

DNM