Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS State College, PA

770 
WWUS51 KCTP 051930
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

PAC057-051939-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-170905T2000Z/
Fulton PA-
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved east of the Fulton 
county. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 3972 7794 3994 7791 4004 7723 3972 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 266DEG 31KT 3993 7777 3973 7780 

$$

PAC001-041-055-052000-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-170905T2000Z/
Adams PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 329 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from St. Thomas to near Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Marion around 330 PM EDT. 
  Chambersburg, Greencastle, Guilford and Scotland around 340 PM 
  EDT. 
  Waynesboro, Wayne Heights, Rouzerville, Fayetteville and Mont Alto 
  around 350 PM EDT. 
  Carroll Valley, Cashtown and Orrtanna around 400 PM EDT. 

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Arendtsville, Quincy, Biglerville, Williamson, State Line,
McKnightstown, Upton, Fairfield, Bendersville and Liberty Mountain
Resort.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7794 3994 7791 4004 7723 3972 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 266DEG 31KT 3993 7777 3973 7780 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Lambert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will progress very slowly across the state during
the day today, bringing showers and some strong thunderstorms.
A deepening upper level trough will march east across the
commonwealth Wednesday into Thursday, leading to cooler than
normal temperatures and scattered showers. That will be followed
by a dry but cool weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
More showers developing along the cold front which has not yet
passed through KBFD. Tough to pick out short wave/vort max
moving overhead on sat pics, but models do have some spin and
good lift is flaring up convection over the SW. Current sunshine
and good heating in the SE are all in line with going fcst. have
only tweaked the POPs and wx grids slightly. Temps seem pretty
solid as well. Dewpoints were too low in the NW where the front
has yet to pass. Storms still expected to get worst in the SE,
as RAP

Prev...
Remnants of earlier convection sliding off to the NE early this
morning. But additional convection continues off to the west and
SW ahead of slowly approaching cold front. This front will
continue to be the focus for showers/thunderstorms today - with
convection strengthening midday over central and southern
mountains and becoming strong to severe as it shifts to the
Susq Valley. Trough digging over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
will keep strongest mid-level flow (~70kts) aligned over the
front. Best deep-layer shear and heating begins in a corridor
over the Susq Valley stretching to the NE, which looks to be
enough to strengthen convection enough to justify a Slight Risk
there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper flow gradually backs to the southwest on Wednesday
helping to slow the cold front to a crawl with an area of
anafrontal rain blossoming and moving NE across the southeast
part of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday - gradually
shifting eastward Wed night. The clouds and rain showers will
keep temps below normal during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Would expect most of the showers and storms to be out of the
area Thursday, but still some chance of a shower across the
north into Friday morning as the upper level trough finally
swings across.

Large high builds into the area for next weekend. Weather looks
to be dry but temps will remain on the cool side.

After that, heading into early next week, interaction between
the departing high pressure area and Hurricane Irma will
determine the track it will take as it approaches the U.S East
Coast. Still quite a wide variation of solutions forecast by
longer term guidance after it slides by the northern Bahamas, so
stay tuned for now.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STill some thunder lingering over BFD as the cold front has not
yet passed there - wind still from the SW dewpoint 63F.
SHRA/TSRA already flaring up over SWrn PA and zipping very
quickly to the ENE - these should begin to affect JST/AOO/UNV
within the next hour or two and IPT not long after that. MDT/LNS
have sfc-based cu already developing as the temps are getting
into the m70s. High clouds should keep the heating rather slow -
but cu will likely become TSRA around or shortly after 18Z in
the SE. Will add some timing for TS in the TAFs, but still keep
it rather broadbrushed for now - esp with the speed of the cells
being so quick.

Prev..
Ceiling reductions are mainly at BFD as the progression of the
southern end of the line of showers has stalled. However as of
the 12Z radar showers continue to spread slowly into central
PA. Expect some SHRA at JST and then at AOO and UNV by mid
morning. These showers will make there way east and will
encompass much of NW half of CWA. These spread into central and
SE portions on Tue as numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms impact those regions as the front stalls nearby.
The line will strengthen through the SE this afternoon bringing
SHRA and TSRA to the Eastern TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z. Have
left TSRA out of the TAFS due to timing however MDT and LNS
could see periods of IFR from TSRA late this afternoon.

After frontal passage some showers should linger this evening
into the overnight hours.

.Outlook...
Wed...Reductions poss in SHRA - mainly NW mtns and east of Susq
River.

Thu/Fri...Widespread MVFR north. VFR elsewhere. Sct showers
mainly north.

Sat...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Gartner/RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
507 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037-060915-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Tioga-
507 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-018-019-024>027-033>036-041-042-045-046-049-060915-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
507 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail
are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest
updates on this situation.

PAZ028-050>053-056>059-063>066-060915-
Juniata-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
507 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large
hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon and
evening. An isolated weak/brief tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest
updates on this situation.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

PAZ026>028-034>036-056-063-064-051930-
Perry PA-Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Adams PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD...ADAMS...
HUNTINGDON...FRANKLIN...MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...FULTON...CUMBERLAND...AND
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Doylesburg to Berkeley Springs. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chambersburg, Waynesboro, Shippensburg, Greencastle, Carlisle, St.
Thomas, Plainfield, Wayne Heights, Ickesburg, Fort Loudon, Locust
Grove, Barnes Gap, Mercersburg, New Bloomfield, Guilford, Willow
Hill, Big Cove Tannery, Rockhill Furnace, Big Spring State Park and
Spruce Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7849 4051 7766 4058 7706 3972 7744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 239DEG 41KT 4023 7771 3962 7824

CR