Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
348 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled over southwestern PA will lift to the northeast
as a warm front today and Friday. This will keep the mention of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into the weekend.
Heavy rain is possible later today and tonight. A cold front
will push through early next week and lower the humidity and
temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms firing
off the Allegheny ridges are being aided by convergence along a
warm front across the region and lift from approaching short
wave aloft. Convection will continue into the evening hours with
the overall area expected to shift southeast while most
individual cells move generally to the northeast. A second ling
of storms is also developing farther west in Eastern Ohio which
is expected to progress into

Relatively slow moving storms within an area of high sfc
moisture will present a threat for heavy rain into the evening
hours. Earlier outlook from WPC for MRGL risk of rainfall
exceeding FFG over the western half of the area today and
tonight, has been upgraded to a SLGT risk across parts of
northcentral PA. While most flash flood guidance is better
than 2"/3 hrs in the west and more than 3"/3hrs in the central
mountains and even higher in the east, with western part of CWA
with the moisture axis, have issued a Flash Flood Watch through
the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Showers/storms are more than likely tonight for most of the
area. The SE may continue to stay dry all night. The threat for
heavy rain is greatest tonight when the deep moisture plume gets
farther into the area. Thus far, it has remained to our west.
The 1.5+" PWATs will be in place and there will be a period of
time this evening and early tonight when the relative inflow of
moisture will match/balance the storm motion. This can lead to
heavy rainers. But, with no specific locations primed with very
wet soil, still some time to go, and some uncertainty of where
heavy rain is most likely, no flash flood watch will be issued
on this shift. The day shift will have a better look at it as
the meso models/CAMs begin to reach into that time frame. At
this point, the NAM drops point amounts of 2+" QPF in the W and
NC mtns. The GFS is lower and more washed out on the QPF
amounts. Will hold basin-average QPF to around an inch total in
the west and NC mtns. Will continue to mention heavy rain in the
wx grids.

The most potent trough aloft will be off to the east by sunrise,
and forcing wanes. But, lingering boundaries could be foci for
SHRA/TSRA on Fri. The LI's don't get negative in the northeast
on Fri per the NAM and GFS, but dewpoints still high in the east
and south, and the CAPE is again progged to be above
1000joules. Will continue to mention thunder with the entire
area in general thunder on the SPC Day2 prog. Expect temps to be
a little warmer on Friday in the west where it may dry out in
the afternoon. The sparse coverage of showers/storms on Friday
should preclude any further worries of flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement on the
development of a modestly strong mid/upper level trough over the
Great Lakes by Monday, with multiple waves progressing around
the base of the trough and ejecting northeast into Canada. The
most likely period for showers and thunderstorms (Sun-Mon) will
focus along the associated surface cold front which is progged
to slowly push southeast and reach the Mid Atlantic coast by
20/12z. Precipitation will be focused mainly to the west of the
Appalachians on Sunday before shifting east on Monday. Temperatures
are fcst to trend above average over the weekend with max
readings in the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday. Max heat index is
projected to reach the mid/upper 90s across portions of the mid-
lower Susquehanna Valley. Unlike the recent heat episode, the
duration of hot temperatures will be shorter and last 2 days at
most (limited area-SEPA). Lower humidity and near average
temperatures are likely following the cold frontal passage into
the middle part of next week. Another shortwave is fcst to
rotate through the trough around midweek before the upper level
pattern turns more zonal by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers/storms will affect the western and central TAF
sites through the afternoon and early evening hours and
possibly eastern TAF sits by later this evening.

Deteriorating cigs appear likely tonight, as moist southeast
flow, rainfall from earlier today, and residual showers affect the
region. Latest SREF guidance support widespread MVFR cigs by
late evening and IFR cigs possible early Friday morning.

.OUTLOOK...

Fri...Low cigs, showers/tstorms possible, mainly in the AM.

Sat...AM fog possible.

Sun...Patchy AM fog poss east. PM tsra impacts poss west.

Mon and Tue...Tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gartner
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1234 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-161645-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
1234 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible during
the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ019-026>028-035>037-041-045-046-049-050-161645-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
1234 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ042-051>053-056>059-063>066-161645-
Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1234 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE HOME CAMP         41.10N  78.64W
06/15/2017                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG HOME CAMP ROAD IN UNION
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701206

EVANEGO

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