Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of convection is expected this morning and again
this afternoon. Tonight Low Pressure will track across Central
Lakes late tonight dragging a cold front across the forecast
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We remain in the warm sector with the warm front stretching
across the Central Lakes with a series of lows tracking along
the boundary. The showers and thunderstorms which develop from
the Upper Midwest into the Plains last night, will move across
the forecast area this morning. Should be a break from mid
morning on. The second wave of convection will redevelop this
afternoon as capes rise to near 3000 j/kg. There will also be a
weak ll jet and a little additional lift from 300 mb jet moving
across the Central Lakes. With so many boundaries floating
around convection could occur anywhere, but best chances will be
in the southern 2/3 of the forecast area.

Entire area remains in flash flood watch. With dew points in the
70s precipitale water is between 1.5 and 2 inches. Plus with and
East to West orientation training is a possiblity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will track near the thumb of
Michigan this evening. The low forecast to reach lake Ontario by
daybreak Friday. The low will drag the boundary now north of us
south as a cold front. This will finally give a quick break to
the convection and usher in some drier and cooler conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Humidity values drop off as we head into the weekend with high
pressure expanding over the area on Saturday then shifting south on
Sunday. Another vigorous shortwave trough will move southeast out of
Canada into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the area on Sunday ahead of
the feature. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs near 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With the trough over Lake Erie and northeast Ohio on Monday, will
hold onto a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the south
and east as the front moves through. Locations with an earlier
frontal passage will only have highs in the upper 70s with warmest
temperatures near 80 in the southeast. High pressure and dry
conditions returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Warm advection ramps up
towards mid-week with temperatures trending back to the mid and
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Thunderstorms moving into NW IN will move across the forecast
move across the western portions of the forecast area overnight
and the east this morning. Thunderstorms coming into a less
sheared and unstable environment so will gradually weaken as
moves across the forecast area.  Scattered thunderstorms will
redevelop across the forecast area this afternoon. SPC has area
under slight risk this afternoon as model have capes of 2-3.5k
j/kg.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR in showers and thunderstorms through Friday
then again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Large convective complex will move across the lake this morning and
will impact winds on the lake today. Southwest winds will generally
be in the 10-15 knot range. Low pressure over the Central Great
Lakes will shift east overnight into Friday with winds shifting to
the northwest at 15-20 knots behind the front. Wave are expected to
hold in the 2 to 4 foot range but could need a Small Craft Advisory
for a brief window if they end up being a little stronger.

High pressure will build in on Saturday with improving conditions.
Another cold front will move across the lake on Monday but high
pressure will build in quickly behind it.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Earlier showers produced a range of 0.5-2.5" across the region.
Rainfall over the past week has saturated top soils with standing
water in some areas of the western CWA. Dew points across the region
this afternoon are in the lower 70s with high moisture content
throughout the air column. A front will drop back south toward
the region tonight into Thursday, and then gradually move
southward early Friday. The warm cloud depth at times reaches
over 13k feet, anomalously high even for July. This will support
very high rainfall rates, likely 4"/hr or greater in strong
storms. This combined with the flow parallel to the boundary
will support back building/training. Some of the region will
see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but those areas worked over with
repeating storms could easily pick up 3 to 5 inches if not more.
Wet antecedent conditions will support rapid runoff. All
combined conditions favor a high risk of flash flooding just
about anywhere the heavier showers develop. Concerns will then
shift to subsequent river flooding.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-140830-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms This afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

Spotter activation may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-140830-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms This afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
331 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHZ006-008-017-018-027-028-036-130830-
Crawford-Seneca-Wyandot-Marion-Wood-Hancock-Sandusky-
331 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SENECA...
MARION...WESTERN SANDUSKY...WYANDOT...WESTERN CRAWFORD...WOOD AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 328 AM EDT, radar indicated a area of strong thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall was located along a line extending from
near Weston to Forest to near Bellefontaine. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Winds around 30 mph are also possible with in the most
intense portions of these thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Marion, Bowling Green, Tiffin, Fostoria, Bucyrus, Upper
Sandusky, Bluffton, North Baltimore, Gibsonburg, Woodville, McComb,
Weston, Forest, Arlington, Prospect, Sycamore, La Rue, Arcadia and
Rawson.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cleveland.

LAT...LON 4141 8388 4151 8343 4150 8335 4146 8334
      4143 8328 4100 8301 4049 8296 4048 8302
      4043 8303 4044 8325 4051 8325 4051 8342
      4068 8342 4070 8344 4071 8349 4082 8351
      4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 269DEG 25KT 4129 8383 4081 8348 4037 8360

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
453 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHZ027-131000-
Wyandot-
453 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WYANDOT COUNTY...

At 452 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Vanlue to near Morral. Movement was
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms. Torrential
rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Upper Sandusky, Sycamore, Morral, Marseilles, Carey, Nevada, Wharton,
Harpster and Kirby.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4091 8349 4095 8348 4095 8346 4099 8346
      4099 8311 4070 8312 4070 8330 4069 8331
      4069 8344 4070 8344 4071 8349 4079 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 272DEG 19KT 4091 8342 4074 8324

Clark