Areal Flood Warning 16, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Michigan will track slowly eastward through
tonight. A cold front will move across northern Ohio and NW PA
late tonight into Friday. High pressure will begin to build into
the area on Saturday. The next cold front may move into the
area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Main area of showers/thunderstorms is exiting the region.
However 7H jet remains over the southern half of the area with
lift near it. Current thinking is that any of the heavier
showers/thunderstorms will be located near and south of a line
from Findlay to Warren. Will leave the Flash Flood Watch in its
current configuration with this update. However locations north
of the line from Hancock county to Trumbull county may be
removed from the watch around noon if current trends continue.

Otherwise have only made minor changes to the timing of the
rainfall across the region through the day.

Previous discussion...
We remain in the warm sector with the warm front stretching
across the Central Lakes with a series of lows tracking along
the boundary. The showers and thunderstorms which develop from
the Upper Midwest into the Plains last night, will move across
the forecast area this morning. Should be a break from mid
morning on. The second wave of convection will redevelop this
afternoon as capes rise to near 3000 j/kg. There will also be a
weak ll jet and a little additional lift from 300 mb jet moving
across the Central Lakes. With so many boundaries floating
around convection could occur anywhere, but best chances will be
in the southern 2/3 of the forecast area.

Entire area remains in flash flood watch. With dew points in the
70s precipitable water is between 1.5 and 2 inches. Plus with
and East to West orientation training is a possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Humidity values drop off as we head into the weekend with high
pressure expanding over the area on Saturday then shifting south on
Sunday. Another vigorous shortwave trough will move southeast out of
Canada into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the area on Sunday ahead of
the feature. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs near 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With the trough over Lake Erie and northeast Ohio on Monday, will
hold onto a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the south
and east as the front moves through. Locations with an earlier
frontal passage will only have highs in the upper 70s with warmest
temperatures near 80 in the southeast. High pressure and dry
conditions returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Warm advection ramps up
towards mid-week with temperatures trending back to the mid and
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move east of the forecast area
by late morning. Thunderstorms will redevelop later this
afternoon. SPC continues to have the area in a slight risk for
severe TSRA this afternoon as capes forecast to rise to between
2-3k j/kg. Models not in good agreement on location and timing.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR in showers and thunderstorms through Friday
then again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Large convective complex will move across the lake this morning and
will impact winds on the lake today. Southwest winds will generally
be in the 10-15 knot range. Low pressure over the Central Great
Lakes will shift east overnight into Friday with winds shifting to
the northwest at 15-20 knots behind the front. Wave are expected to
hold in the 2 to 4 foot range but could need a Small Craft Advisory
for a brief window if they end up being a little stronger.

High pressure will build in on Saturday with improving conditions.
Another cold front will move across the lake on Monday but high
pressure will build in quickly behind it.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB/KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-140830-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms This afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

Spotter activation may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-140830-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
426 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms This afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
453 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHZ027-131000-
Wyandot-
453 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WYANDOT COUNTY...

At 452 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Vanlue to near Morral. Movement was
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms. Torrential
rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Upper Sandusky, Sycamore, Morral, Marseilles, Carey, Nevada, Wharton,
Harpster and Kirby.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4091 8349 4095 8348 4095 8346 4099 8346
      4099 8311 4070 8312 4070 8330 4069 8331
      4069 8344 4070 8344 4071 8349 4079 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 272DEG 19KT 4091 8342 4074 8324

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
509 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHZ007-008-018-131015-
Seneca-Ottawa-Sandusky-
509 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OTTAWA...SENECA AND
SANDUSKY COUNTIES...

At 508 AM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing very heavy
rain were located along a line extending from near Port Clinton to
near Bloomville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Fremont, Fostoria, Port Clinton, Bellevue, Clyde, Oak Harbor,
Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Elmore, Green Springs, Bloomville, New
Riegel, Ballville, Catawba Island, Attica, Bettsville, Bay View and
Republic.

LAT...LON 4161 8341 4161 8309 4154 8292 4161 8288
      4161 8279 4147 8280 4147 8281 4144 8285
      4100 8283 4099 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0908Z 257DEG 32KT 4156 8300 4102 8307

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
547 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE FINDLAY           41.03N 83.58W
07/13/2017  M4.10 INCH       HANCOCK            OH   OTHER FEDERAL

            USGS GAUGE AT FDLO1 MEASURED 4.10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 1
            AM.

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
07/13/2017  M3.39 INCH       HANCOCK            OH   ASOS

            FINDLAY AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED 3.39 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 1
            AM.

&&

SEFCOVIC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
604 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHZ014-023-033-PAZ003-131100-
Mahoning-Trumbull-Ashtabula Inland-Crawford-
604 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
MAHONING...EASTERN TRUMBULL...SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 603 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Orwell to near Canfield. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Youngstown, Warren, Boardman, Niles, Campbell, Hubbard, Canfield,
Cortland, Kinsman, Vienna Center, Hilltop, Adamsville, Maplewood
Park, Atlantic, Austintown, Struthers, Girard, Vienna, McDonald and
Mecca.

LAT...LON 4149 8000 4149 8052 4097 8052 4099 8075
      4155 8079 4160 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 271DEG 31KT 4149 8079 4107 8076

Lombardy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     FLOOD            FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
07/13/2017                   HANCOCK            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED WITH UP TO 1-2 FEET OF WATER.

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
07/13/2017                   HANCOCK            OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MANY ROADS FLOODED WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF STALLED
            VEHICLES AND STRANDED MOTORISTS.

0600 AM     FLOOD            TIFFIN                  41.12N 83.18W
07/13/2017                   SENECA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN TIFFIN WITH WATER OVER US 224 AND
            SR 53.

&&

CLARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
837 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N TIFFIN              41.15N 83.18W
07/13/2017  M3.28 INCH       SENECA             OH   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

&&

NG