River Flood Warning 16, NWS Charleston, SC

920 
WGUS82 KCHS 111444
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

GAC109-121444-
/O.CON.KCHS.FL.W.0015.170912T0530Z-000000T0000Z/
/CNOG1.3.ER.170912T0530Z.170913T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 1.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by early Tuesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* At 16.0 feet, several homes will be impacted by flood waters along 
  Highway 169 near the Canoochee River.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-121444-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.170912T1430Z-000000T0000Z/
/REDG1.2.ER.170912T1430Z.170914T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 2.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by late Tuesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 17.9 feet by Thursday morning. Additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* At 17.5 feet, water enters the ground level of homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community. The access road becomes covered with water.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

761 
WGUS82 KCHS 120252
FLSCHS

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1052 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

SCC015-043-089-130252-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0017.170912T1948Z-000000T0000Z/
/JAMS1.1.ER.170912T1948Z.170913T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Santee River near Jamestown.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to rise above flood stage
  by Tuesday afternoon and continue to rise to near 11.6 
  feet by early Wednesday afternoon.
* At 12.0 feet, several dirt logging roads are impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 8002 3354 7998 3325 7937 3321 7938
          3320 7951 3329 7976         

$$

GAC109-130252-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0015.170912T2100Z-170915T0600Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170912T2100Z.170913T1200Z.170914T1800Z.NO/
1052 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 10 PM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Tuesday
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 11.9 feet by Wednesday morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-130251-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.170912T0614Z-000000T0000Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T0614Z.170913T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 PM Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early
  Tuesday morning and continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by Tuesday 
  evening.
* At 14.0 feet, flooding of several riverside unimproved roads and 
  some agricultural land occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

798 
WGUS82 KCHS 121417
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

GAC109-131417-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0015.170912T2200Z-170915T0600Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170912T2200Z.170913T1200Z.170914T1800Z.NO/
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 11.9 feet by Wednesday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-131417-
/O.CON.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1448Z.170913T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue 
  to rise to near 15.0 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* At 14.0 feet, flooding of several riverside unimproved roads and 
  some agricultural land occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

SCC015-043-089-121447-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170912T1417Z/
/JAMS1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1017 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Santee River near Jamestown.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river crested below flood stage at 8.6 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 6.1 feet by Wednesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3347 8002 3354 7998 3325 7937 3321 7938
          3320 7951 3329 7976         

$$

676 
WGUS82 KCHS 130145
FLSCHS

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
945 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

GAC109-140145-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170915T0300Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170913T0030Z.170913T1200Z.170914T1500Z.NO/
945 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 11.8 feet by Wednesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Thursday 
  morning.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-140145-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170914T1545Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1200Z.170914T0345Z.NO/
945 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 12.7 feet by Wednesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday night.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

694 
WGUS82 KCHS 131436
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1036 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

SCC019-029-035-141436-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0018.170913T1433Z-000000T0000Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 10.9 feet by early Thursday 
  morning then begin a slow fall.
* At 11.0 feet, Weeks Landing in Canadys is not accessible.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC109-141436-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170915T1600Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170913T0030Z.170913T1800Z.170915T0400Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will remain near 11.9 feet this afternoon, then
  begin a slow fall to below flood stage early Friday morning.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-140930-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170914T0930Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1400Z.170913T2130Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage late this
  afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

288 
WGUS82 KCHS 140121
FLSCHS

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
921 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

SCC019-029-035-150121-
/O.CON.KCHS.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
921 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 10.9 feet by early Thursday 
  afternoon then begin a slow fall.
* At 11.0 feet, Weeks Landing in Canadys is not accessible.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC109-150121-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170915T0800Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170913T0030Z.170913T1300Z.170914T2000Z.NO/
921 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage Thursday 
  afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

GAC267-279-150121-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170915T0210Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1800Z.170914T1410Z.NO/
921 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage late 
  Thursday morning.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

696 
WGUS82 KCHS 141511
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

SCC019-029-035-151511-
/O.CON.KCHS.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 10.8 feet by this afternoon 
  then begin a slow fall.
* At 11.0 feet, Weeks Landing in Canadys is not accessible.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC267-279-151500-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170915T1500Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1800Z.170915T0300Z.NO/
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage tonight.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

GAC109-141541-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170915T0800Z/
/CNOG1.1.ER.170913T0030Z.170913T1300Z.170914T1230Z.NO/
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Canoochee River near Claxton.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 8 AM Thursday.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall to 10.1 feet by Friday 
  morning.
* At 11.0 feet, several homes are flooded along Parker Springs Road in
  Canoochee Properties.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8199 3222 8189 3222 8182 3215 8183
          3215 8189 3215 8198         

$$

702 
WGUS82 KCHS 150221
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1021 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

SCC019-029-035-160221-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170917T1800Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T0915Z.170917T0600Z.NO/
1021 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 9 PM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage early 
  Sunday morning.
* At 11.0 feet, Weeks Landing in Canadys is not accessible.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC267-279-160221-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170916T0800Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1800Z.170915T2000Z.NO/
1021 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 PM Thursday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage Friday 
  afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

817 
WGUS82 KCHS 151448
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1048 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

SCC019-029-035-161448-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170917T0600Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T0915Z.170916T1800Z.NO/
1048 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 10 AM Friday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* At 10.0 feet, water affects the ends of numerous river access roads 
  including Happiness Lane, Canon Road, Cardinal Lane, Huckleberry 
  Hill Lane, and Gator Walk.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC267-279-161200-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170916T1200Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1800Z.170916T0000Z.NO/
1048 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 AM Friday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river is expected to drop below flood stage this 
  evening.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

854 
WGUS82 KCHS 160243
FLSCHS


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1043 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

SCC019-029-035-160313-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170917T0600Z/
/GIVS1.1.ER.170913T0915Z.170914T0915Z.170915T2315Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Edisto River near Givhans Ferry.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 7 PM Friday.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall.
* At 10.0 feet, water affects the ends of numerous river access roads 
  including Happiness Lane, Canon Road, Cardinal Lane, Huckleberry 
  Hill Lane, and Gator Walk.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8065 3311 8062 3308 8036 3275 8036
          3275 8050 3302 8044         

$$

GAC267-279-160313-
/O.CAN.KCHS.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170916T1200Z/
/REDG1.1.ER.170912T1952Z.170913T1800Z.170915T2137Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Ohoopee River near Reidsville.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 6 PM Friday.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall to 9.2 feet by Sunday 
  morning.
* At 11.0 feet, water enters the back yards of some homes in the Joy 
  Bluff community.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8225 3217 8217 3205 8212 3190 8207
          3192 8217 3204 8221         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
951 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Powerful Hurricane Irma will accelerate north along the west
coast of Florida into Monday, then move into southwest Georgia
and Alabama Monday Night. Warmer weather will return during the
middle to end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
For the mid evening update, we initialized will some lower temps
and dew points across inland areas as some evaporative cooling
effects were ongoing. POPs in good shape and we are working on
the new winds for the next advisory as we speak. Overall, No
more than a few tweaks required for most forecast elements.

The area remains in a complex synoptic situation that features
Canadian high pressure in the Great Lakes that dips SE, while
powerful Hurricane Irma heads steadily northward along the western
side of the Fl peninsula to near the states Big Bend area by
morning. A stationary front extending from over NE FL to off the SE
GA coast will lift northward as the hurricane also gains latitude.

There is a continued feed of deepening tropical moisture from off
the Atlantic and coincides with boundary layer winds of 35-40 kt by
12Z Monday, even higher along the coast and over parts of SE GA.
PWat will increase to higher than 2 inches N and to greater than 2.5
inches S. And the initial dry air in place across our N and NW zones
will give way to increasing convective rain chances through the
night, with widespread rains everyone before dawn.

POP: With 100% coverage all counties to occur by the end of the
night, Soaking rains have already moved into around southeast GA
zones and will only get heavier overnight. Otherwise most of
the rain will be light or moderate then intensity will pick up
during the post-midnight period.

Rainfall: See HYDROLOGY section below.

Severe Weather: We're fortunate that there is little if any
instability as the shear is extremely high, and we're generally
stuck in a wedge type environment. But as the stationary front lifts
N and Irma also moves steadily northward, some of the instability to
the S and over the Atlantic will start to spread onshore. After
about 3-5 am we find MLCAPE up to 400-600 J/kg over coastal sections
of SE GA. That occurs in conjunction with 35-45 kt of 0-1 km Bulk
Shear, 500-600 m2/sec2 of 0-1 km SRH, an EHI in excess of 2.0,
SHERBS3 up to 1.0 and SIG TOR of 2 to 3. This supports an increased
risk for some tornadoes to move onshore prior to daybreak on
Monday, especially east of US-17 in SE GA. We would anticipate a
Tornado watch being issued at some point later tonight.

Winds: Tropical Storm force winds will start impacting coastal
sections this evening, with Tropical Storm force gusts to then occur
over much of the southern and eastern CWFA prior to morning. As
spiral rainbands around Irma move in late, winds could occasionally
gust as high as 50 or 60 mph at times, as models are showing at
least 45-50 kt of 925 mb winds.

Temps: Very little change is anticipated through the night due to
thick and overcast skies. In fact some locations east of US-17 in SC
and from the Savannah metro to the south could actually rise
after midnight, depending upon the inland progression of the
coastal warm front (or stationary front).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There continues to be only minor changes to our forecast through the
period, especially regarding large and powerful Hurricane Irma.
Impacts are expected to peak Monday with the strongest winds,
greatest storm surge, heaviest rain and greatest tornado threat. See
below for details regarding the different hazards. It is important
to note that the wind fields remain large owing to the strong
pressure gradient between Irma and high pressure to the north. Thus,
our expectations for significant tropical storm impacts persist.
Conditions across the area will improve significantly Monday night
and especially Tuesday as Irma is forecast to weaken and move
farther north and west of the area.

Winds: Winds will veer easterly and then southeasterly through the
day on Monday. The period of strongest winds, and tropical storm
conditions, is expected through Monday afternoon, mainly highest
near the coast south of Edisto Beach where there is still a small
chance for gusts to hurricane force, especially in heavier squalls.
Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are anticipated with gusts to
around 60 mph. Winds will decrease quickly Monday night below
tropical storm force for all areas, although could see some tropical
storm force wind gusts in lingering squalls at least into the
evening, especially across SC. Such winds with wet soil could cause
downed trees and some power outages.

Tornadoes: On Monday as Irma lifts across north FL and into southern
Georgia, models continue to show a nice slot of instability
spreading onshore into southeast GA/SC. This will be coincident with
very strong low-level shear/helicity values. Thus, conditions will
be favorable for tornadoes through Monday evening, primarily brief
and weak in nature.

Flooding Rainfall: See HYDROLOGY section below.

For more detailed potential impact information refer to our
Hurricane Local Statement /HLS/, Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
Statement /TCV/, and/or Hurricane Threats/Impacts Graphics which are
all available from our website at:

http:/weather.gov/chs/tropical_briefing

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Irma will move well away from the area mid week
leaving a substantial upper trough which will lift out through late
week. Near or slightly above climo temps with isolated to scattered
mainly diurnal convection is possible late week as the trough pulls
out and 20-30% PoP seems reasonable. Over the weekend, we think the
weather will be warm and dry with an uncertain status of Hurricane
Jose wandering the western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep and tropical moisture will spread further northward tonight
and persist into Monday as Hurricane Irma draws northward along
the western side of the Fl peninsula and eventually into S-SW
GA. This will result in lowering ceilings and visibilities as
convective rain coverage increases and persists. Rainbands
around Irma could produce TSRA at KSAV late tonight into early
Monday afternoon, and during the mid morning through mid
afternoon Monday at KCHS. We did slow the trend of lower
ceilings/visibilities from the previous forecast, but expect
flight restrictions down into the MVFR and IFR range much of
the time starting by 04-06Z Monday and continuing through the
end of the valid cycle.

Moderate NE winds at both terminals this evening in response to
the large pressure difference between Irma and high pressure to
the N will become more cyclonic as it veers to the E-NE and E
later tonight and Monday with Irma moving N. Highest winds will
obtain close to 25 or 30 kt this evening, up to 35 or 40 kt
late tonight, and 40-45 kt but potentially higher on Monday.
There doesn't appear to be enough of a vector differential for
LLWS to be included in the TAF's.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Significant restrictions and very strong
winds expected to impact KCHS and KSAV into early Monday night as
Irma tracks northwest through southwest GA. Low-level wind shear is
likely. Mainly VFR Tue-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Evening update: We have increased near shore winds several knots
up and down the coast as current obs indicate. Seas height
trends appear to be doing well to the this point,

Tonight: Dangerous and life threatening marine conditions will
overspread the entire coastal waters, as powerful Hurricane Irma
heads northward along the western side of the FL peninsula and
reaching near the FL Big Bend by morning. Initially our NE winds
will be the result of a huge pressure difference between a
strong Canadian high over the eastern Great Lakes with central
pressures near 1030 mb, and Irma with a central pressure around
936 mb. Then as Irma gains latitude, more of the cyclonic
circulation around her will be start covering the marine area.
Winds will begin as NE 25-30 kt in Charleston Harbor and 30-40
kt over the Atlantic. Winds will veer more to the E overnight
and speeds steadily climb as high as 30-35 kt in Charleston
Harbor and to 40-50 kt in the ocean. Outside of convective rains
with a Predecessor Rain Event and then with rainbands that
arrive from Irma closer to daybreak, highest gusts will approach
55 or 60 kt in the Atlantic, 40-45 kt in Charleston Harbor.
Because of winds this high we have maintained the Tropical
Storm Warning for all waters and a Hurricane Seas will be in
effect from Edisto Beach to the south. Seas will be as large as
15-16 ft within 20 nm and up to 22 ft on the outer GA waters.

After midnight there will be a noted increase in both shear and
instability, which will lead to the risk for isolated or even
scattered waterspouts during the overnight period, with the
highest probabilities from Edisto Beach south to the Altamaha
River.

Monday through Friday: Tropical storm conditions are expected Monday
with some gusts to hurricane force possible leading to very
dangerous conditions. Seas will likely reach near 20 feet out near
20 nm offshore and peak near 25 ft in the GA offshore waters. Small
craft should remain in port!

Conditions will improve a bit Monday night and especially Tuesday
although still in the Advisory range for most areas into Tuesday
night, possibly lingering in the offshore waters into early
Wednesday. No other significant concerns through Friday although
will see an increase in wave heights again later this week as swells
from Hurricane Jose impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area
through late Monday night.

Although the dry air continues to encompass the northern half of the
CWFA, where PWat is still below average will steadily give way to
the rich tropical air that covers the far southern zones, where PWat
is already above 2 inches. By late tonight the entire forecast
region will have PWat in excess of 2 inches, with areas near the
Altamaha River basin near or greater than 2.5 inches.

A Predecessor Rain Event or PRE already on the GA coastal waters and
into SE GA in association with a stationary front will spread N and
NW through the night leading to increasing coverage of convective
rains, and as the circulation around Irma becomes more involved
late, heavy to intense rains will begin. Through the next 12
hour period we have as much as 2-4 inches south of I-16 in GA,
mainly 3/4 to 1.25 inches elsewhere, except for lighter amounts
along the NW tier.

The best chance for significant flooding will be along the coast due
to the very high tides expected for the next 48-60 hours. Also of
note, recent weeks and months have been quite wet, resulting in
antecedent conditions that are well above normal especially along
the coast. Torrential rainfall is expected to coincides with a
particularly high tide and max storm surge around midday Monday, and
very significant flooding could result.

Beyond the immediate flash flood threat, river flooding will become
a concern Tuesday or Wednesday. Some river points could exceed major
flood stage if current QPF numbers verify over the headwaters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeast winds will continue to strengthen to tropical storm
force over the area through tonight, eventually becoming east and
strengthening more late tonight and Monday. These forecast wind
directions/speeds and the surge produced by Irma's approach will
favor significant inundation along our coastal areas, with the
highest tide levels with the midday Monday high tide. Increasing
swell energy will also enhance the tidal anomalies. Tides have been
running high for a few days already followed the full moon, so
the underlying tides are also somewhat high, including during
low tide.

The combination of these factors will produce major coastal flooding
along the entire SC/GA coast with the high tide around 12-1 am. Such
high tides along with large, powerful breaking waves impacting the
shore, significant beach erosion is likely, along with some property
damage and crucial access routes being cut off.

As bad as the high tide will be tonight, it is the midday high tide
Monday that will be the most extreme, when the greatest storm surge
will coincide with the largest onshore swells and torrential
rainfall. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the entire
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast, with 3-6 feet
of inundation above ground level in low-lying coastal areas
expected. Such tide levels, when combined with the large breaking
waves, would result in significant coastal flood damage, beach
erosion, and cut off access routes to/from barrier islands.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Max Temps for September 10:
KCHS...73 set in 1956 (Max so far today 73)
KCXM...72 set in 1956 (Max so far today 73)
KSAV...73 set in 1883 (Max so far today 73)

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
     Hurricane Watch for GAZ116>119-138>141.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     Hurricane Watch for SCZ047>049-051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-354-374.
     Hurricane Watch for AMZ352-354-374.
&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
522 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

GAZ116>119-138>141-SCZ047>049-051-112130-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Coastal Jasper-
522 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated tornadoes, especially
across coastal areas of southeast Georgia late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated tornadoes on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-137-SCZ040-042>045-050-052-112130-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Long-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
522 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated tornadoes on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-112130-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
522 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated waterspouts on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ352-354-374-112130-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-
522 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated waterspouts late
tonight, especially on the Georgia coastal waters and the South
Carolina waters off the lower South Carolina coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Severe Weather: There is a risk for isolated waterspouts on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
547 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 N TYBEE ISLAND        32.02N  80.84W
09/10/2017                   CHATHAM            GA   MESONET

            THE WEATHERFLOW SITE ON THE NORTH END OF TYBEE ISLAND
            MEASURED A 40 KNOT...46 MPH...WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700669

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 ESE FRIPP ISLAND      32.28N  80.41W
09/10/2017                   AMZ352             SC   BUOY

            THE CORMP BUOY NEAR FRIPP ISLAND MEASURED A 41
            KNOT...47 MPH...WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700670

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
612 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NE FOLLY BEACH        32.69N  79.89W
09/10/2017                   CHARLESTON         SC   C-MAN STATION

            THE NDBC SITE ON FOLLY BEACH MEASURED A 41 KNOT...47
            MPH...WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700671

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
647 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 ESE DEWEES ISLAND     32.81N  79.63W
09/10/2017                   AMZ350             SC   BUOY

            THE CORMP BUOY NEAR CAPERS ISLAND MEASURED A 41
            KNOT...47 MPH...WIND GUST.

0608 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 ESE FRIPP ISLAND      32.28N  80.41W
09/10/2017                   AMZ352             SC   BUOY

            THE CORMP BUOY NEAR FRIPP ISLAND MEASURED A 43
            KNOT...49 MPH...WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700672
EVENT NUMBER CHS1700673

BSH