Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Columbia, SC

149 
WWUS52 KCAE 241807
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
207 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

GAC189-241817-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170524T1845Z/
McDuffie GA-
207 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MCDUFFIE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for east central
Georgia...and central South Carolina. A tornado watch also remains in
effect until 600 PM EDT for east central Georgia...and central South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3395 8199 3368 8182 3342 8234 3349 8240
      3353 8239 3355 8244 3360 8242 3363 8244
      3365 8243 3364 8245 3364 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 232DEG 47KT 3360 8223 

$$

GAC073-181-SCC037-065-241845-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-170524T1845Z/
Columbia GA-Lincoln GA-Edgefield SC-McCormick SC-
207 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...EDGEFIELD AND SOUTHEASTERN
MCCORMICK COUNTIES...

At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Evans, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Evans, Edgefield, Parksville, Modoc and Clarks Hill. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Strom Thurmond, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for east central
Georgia...and central South Carolina. A tornado watch also remains in
effect until 600 PM EDT for east central Georgia...and central South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3395 8199 3368 8182 3342 8234 3349 8240
      3353 8239 3355 8244 3360 8242 3363 8244
      3365 8243 3364 8245 3364 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 232DEG 47KT 3360 8223 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
608 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Several waves of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary
stalled near the forecast area will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms to the region through tonight. A cold front will
finally be moving east of the region Wednesday night, with drier
and cooler air taking hold by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early morning analysis reveals surface low pressure over
southern Indiana with a cold front extending southwestward
through the Tennessee Valley to the western Gulf coast. Another
weaker nearly stationary boundary was located near the forecast
area but is subtle and diffuse. Sounding analysis indicates the
mid levels have dried a bit since Tuesday afternoon but abundant
low level moisture remains in place. Regional radar showing some
scattered convection lifting northeastward from central Georgia
into the forecast area ahead of a weak northeastward lifting
shortwave trough.

Expect scattered convection to continue lifting into the
forecast area through the early morning hours but then may see a
bit of a lull for a few hours in the wake of the passing
shortwave. More widespread convection is expected this afternoon
and evening as another surge of deep moisture moves over the
area with backed south to southeasterly low level flow in
response to deepening surface low pressure over the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Precipitable water values will push back
up close to 1.75 inches and warm layer cloud depth will be
greater than 10kft supporting efficient rain processes and
continuing the flood threat. Therefore will continue to carry
the Flash Flood Watch already in effect through 8pm tonight.

Severe weather is also possible with strengthening mid level
flow and the nose of a 130 knot upper jet pushing into the
region during peak heating this afternoon. Diffluent 500mb flow
will also provide large scale lift combined with moderate to
strong instability leading to possible damaging wind and hail
threat, and tornadoes cannot be ruled out although that risk is
lower. Expect convection to develop over central GA and spread
northeastward into the forecast area this afternoon and continue
through the evening until a cold front off to the west pushes
into the region and shifts the deeper moisture to the east
overnight. SPC has expanded the slight risk area to encompass
all of the Carolinas and most of Georgia into Florida and MOS
guidance severe pops are quite high, over 50 percent.

Will carry categorical pops across most of the area
this afternoon into early evening with pops decreasing overnight
from southwest to northeast behind the front. Temperatures today
will be highly dependent on cloud cover and therefore confidence
is low but think the eastern Midlands could see some temps
around 80 to lower 80s while the remainder of the region remains
in the 70s. Overnight lows tonight will be dictated by cool
advection behind the front and we should see lows ranging from
the upper 50s western Midlands and upper CSRA to lower 60s
eastern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis will swing through the forecast area on
Thursday with a pocket of very cold 500mb temperatures at -20C
which is quite cold for late May. Expect the cold temperatures
aloft will result in scattered showers with steep mid level
lapse rates and could even see a bit of graupel with some of the
stronger cells. By late afternoon the cold pool will have
shifted east of the forecast area and precipitation chances
should diminish along with cooler, drier air building into the
region. Highs on Thursday will be limited by cloud cover and
weak cool advection. Overnight lows Thursday night will fall
into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and fair weather expected to close out the week with surface
high pressure building over the area with generally zonal
westerly or northwesterly flow at 500mb. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal on Friday in the lower 80s but will
quickly warm back above normal on Sat/Sun with southerly flow
returning and weak upper ridging building over the area.

The next weather system will impact the forecast area on Sun/Mon
as a deep trough dives southeastward into the middle of the
country and 500mb flow veers to the southwest allowing moisture
to increase again over the area. The combination of weak
shortwave energy and increasing moisture will warrant small
chance pops Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread stratus in place, with IFR CIGs. Will expect IFR CIGs to
continue into mid morning, then a gradual diurnal CIG improvement
during the day. Otherwise, main focus will then shift to shower and
scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening,
some possibly severe. Bulk of moisture to shift out of the region
tonight, with drier air filtering in along with some wind expected
to preclude restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon, mainly north. Breezy
conditions expected Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Significant rainfall over the past few days has resulted in
runoff into the mainstem rivers. Additional rainfall is expected
today and tonight, therefore over the next several days we will
see rises in rivers and streams across the area which could
result in river flooding. Additional rainfall and flood
potential will continue to be closely monitored.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
428 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-250830-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
428 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. A few of these thunderstorms could become
strong and be capable of producing gusty winds and marginally severe
hail. The risk for severe weather will be the greatest through 9 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.