Special Marine Warning 36, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon. A cold front
will cross the region late this afternoon and tonight, with several
bands of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region. Some of
these storms may contain locally damaging winds and very heavy
rainfall late this afternoon and this evening. Cooler and less humid
air will then arrive for the first half of the work week, with a few
scattered light showers at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar and satellite show numerous strong storms across western
Pennsylvania and western NY. The immediate Buffalo and Niagara Falls
areas may be protected by the SSW flow off Lake Erie, with less risk
of strong storms near the Niagara River in the lake cooled air. This
line of storms will then accelerate eastward across the Genesee
Valley and western Finger Lakes through late afternoon and early
evening as a cold pool becomes established, reaching the eastern
Lake Ontario region by mid evening.

Moderate deep layer shear combined with strong instability will
support a severe weather risk. Linear forcing and upscale growth
into bowing line segments are occuring, with the main risk being
damaging winds. The high freezing levels and fairly poor mid level
lapse rates suggest the large hail potential is fairly low.

The other concern is flash flooding. The storms will initially be
riding along the southern edge of the Lake Erie breeze, which may
force training for a few hours during the mid to late afternoon from
the western Southern Tier into Southern Erie and Wyoming counties.
This may represent the highest risk of flash flooding. By early
evening storms may be moving eastward fast enough to somewhat
mitigate the flash flood risk, although the Finger Lakes had very
heavy rain on Thursday, leaving them more susceptible to flash
flooding. There may also be a secondary area of heavy rain from the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes later this evening as a second
wave of showers and storms moves through the area.

Behind the line of strong to severe storms this evening, expect a
few more areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight,
gradually ending from west to east late tonight and early Monday
morning. Some rain may linger over the far eastern edge of the CWA
through midday Monday as a weak wave of low pressure moves along the
advancing frontal zone.

Monday afternoon there may still be enough moisture and instability
left to generate some lake breeze convection, especially on the
southern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze. This would impact areas
from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes. A
southwest flow off the lakes will produce stable lake shadows and
keep the corridor from Buffalo to Rochester, and Jefferson County
rain free with more sunshine.

Temperatures will be a little cooler and less humid on Monday, with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Southwest flow will keep the
Buffalo and Watertown areas a little cooler. Those southwest winds
may gust to 25-30 mph again northeast of Lake Erie from Buffalo to
the west side of Rochester.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler temperatures with much more comfortable humidity is expected
to continue through midweek. This will be brought by a midlevel
trough slowly shifting across the Great Lake region. The trough will
bring in cooler temps aloft (850mb temps down to +8C) which will
also translate to the surface with highs running in the lower to mid
70s or just slightly below normal levels for the start of the summer
season. A fresh shot of Canadian air will also continue to filter
across our region with dewpoints slipping back into the 50s which is
very comfortable for summer. This drier airmass will allow overnight
temperatures to slip back into the 50s each night.

This trough will also bring the threat for mainly diurnal influenced
showers and isolated thunderstorms as the cooler air aloft steepens
lapse rates during each afternoon. The exception to the diurnal
timing would be with any strong shortwave troughs rippling through
the mid-level flow and increasing forcing. 12z GFS indicates a
potential for a few of these shortwaves possible Monday night, and
Tuesday afternoon where 40-50 POPs have been included. Another wave
may also shift over our area on Wednesday with slightly lower POPs.
The ECMWF is not onboard with the Wednesday shortwave pushing the
main trough axis through late Tuesday much faster than the GFS hence
the lower POPs on Wednesday/Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The beginning of this period will feature a broad but relatively
flat trough covering a majority of the Continental U.S. This trough
will gradually deepen over the course of the rest of the week into
the weekend. This deepening of the trough will initially occur
across the Upper Midwest as a potent shortwave drops southeast out
of the Canadian prairies. Meanwhile, as the trough digs across the
Upper Midwest low amplitude ridging will develop across the Lower
Great Lakes. This will also begin the process of temperatures
climbing back above normal again as a warm front traverses north
across the Lower Lakes. Accompanying the warm front will be a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Following the passage of the
warm front the cold front will push towards the Lower Great Lakes
Friday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Look for
increasing humidity both days and temperatures peaking Friday with
highs in the 80s for most locations.

Shortwave ridging and drier air will build into the lower Great
Lakes behind the cold front late Friday night. This will provide a
brief break from the heat and humidity. However, don't get used to
it because it will be short lived as another potent shortwave is
expected to bring back a chance for more showers and thunderstorms
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A solid line of storms will move northeast out of PA and western NY
and sweep across the entire region through mid evening. This will
produce a 1-2 hour period of strong storms with local heavy rainfall
and brief IFR, along with gusty winds. Following the line of strong
storms, expect a few more rounds of showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight with areas of MVFR developing, especially
east of Lake Ontario and across higher terrain.

On Monday expect any remaining rain and MVFR to exit eastern areas
during the morning. This will leave mainly VFR to prevail. A few
scattered thunderstorms may develop again later in the afternoon
from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes with
local/brief MVFR to IFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Chance of showers with mainly VFR.
Thursday through Friday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
with local MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwest winds will continue today through the middle of
the week as low pressure stalls over northern Quebec. Winds and
waves will remain below Small Craft criteria most of the time. The
one exception may be Tuesday on Lake Erie, and Tuesday night on Lake
Ontario when winds may become just strong enough for waves to
approach Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ003>008-
     012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

NYZ003>008-012>014-019>021-085-191800-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-191800-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ030-062>065-SLZ022-024-191800-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-191800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

NYZ008-182215-
Lewis-
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...

At 513 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Redfield, or 16
miles north of Camden, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lowville, Whetstone Gulf State Park, Highmarket, New Bremen, Watson,
Martinsburg, Greig, Croghan, Castorland and Turin.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4346 7565 4353 7576 4369 7578 4407 7527
      4398 7515 4380 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 224DEG 29KT 4357 7570

Smith

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
543 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLIVAR                 42.07N  78.17W
06/18/2017                   ALLEGANY           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701176

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW FILLMORE          42.48N  78.15W
06/18/2017                   ALLEGANY           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701177

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
556 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE FREWSBURG         42.05N  79.13W
06/18/2017                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES/WIRES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701178

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
557 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIGHTON                43.12N  77.58W
06/18/2017                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE LIMB OR SMALL TREE DOWN VIA TWITTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701179

CHURCH