Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2017
River Flood Warning 28, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Nov 6, 2017, 12:14 AM EST for Livingston County, Monroe County, New York. It was in force for 20 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 6, 2017, 12:14 AM EST (05:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 6, 2017, 8:24 PM EST
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Genesee River at Avon - NEW USGS gage on the old railroad bridge (AVON6). The gauge peaked at 33.85 ft at Nov 6, 2017, 7:00 AM EST.
- Action stage
- 30 ft
- Minor stage
- 33 ft
- Moderate stage
- 37 ft
- Major stage
- 40 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04228500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
096
WGUS41 KBUF 060514
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Flood Warning
for The following rivers in New York...
Genesee River At Avon
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC051-055-061114-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0028.171106T0514Z-171106T1421Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0821Z.NO/
1214 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Flood warning for
the Genesee River At Avon
* until this morning.
* At 12 AM Monday the stage was 33.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 33.3 feet
early this morning.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$6 follow-up statements
809
WGUS81 KBUF 060900
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
Tonawanda Creek At Attica
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-061500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 12.2 feet
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible
in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable
flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West
Seneca.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2003Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T1200Z.171106T1403Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 8.0 feet
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC051-055-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171106T1819Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1219Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC009-013-029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T1211Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
* until late this morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 10.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to fall below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, flooding along right bank a
half mile to a mile downstream from gowanda, mostly in industrial
and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher
Creek in Gowanda and at sunset bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
4238 7890 4254 7921
$$
NYC029-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until early this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding of backyards,
basements and streets in Village of Lancaster. Some flooding of low
lying areas in Alden, Marilla, and Cheektowaga, especially near
Bowen Road and Transit Road. Some flooding possible near Union Road
too.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
NYC029-037-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 5.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.5 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC037-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T0953Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Attica
* until this morning.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, extensive flooding on
Prospect Street impacting the water treatment plant. Some
residential flooding on Water and North Streets and the south end
of Exchange Street in Attica village.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817
4282 7822 4270 7827
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
Apffel503
WGUS81 KBUF 061103
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
Tonawanda Creek At Attica
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Genesee River At Rochester
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 12.3 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible
in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable
flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West
Seneca.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC051-055-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0251Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2051Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River at Avon
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop below
flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0030.171106T1648Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.1.ER.171106T1648Z.171106T1800Z.171106T1900Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Rochester
* from this morning to this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 15.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 15.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flood, some residential
flooding begins in southern suburbs in Henrietta and Chili.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758
4306 7764
$$
NYC037-055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.171106T1500Z-171107T0600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1500Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0000Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 6.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-121-061702-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T1702Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1102Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC029-121-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cayuga Creek near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flooding in low lying areas
of Lancaster and Alden.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
NYC029-037-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1348Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0748Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.3 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC037-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T1013Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Tonawanda Creek At Attica.
* At 6 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and
will continue to fall to around 4.5 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817
4282 7822 4270 7827
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 6.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2315Z-171108T1800Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2315Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1200Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday
evening and crest near 12.2 feet late Tuesday night.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC009-013-029-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T0647Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and
will continue to fall to around 4.4 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
4238 7890 4254 7921
$$
Apffel091
WGUS81 KBUF 061352
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New
York...
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Genesee River At Rochester
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC051-055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0247Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2047Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this evening.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 34.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0030.171106T1734Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.1.ER.171106T1734Z.171106T1800Z.171106T1900Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Rochester
* from this afternoon to this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
afternoon and crest near 15.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 15.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flood, some residential
flooding begins in southern suburbs, mile 12-18 in Henrietta and
Chili. Flow 20000 cfs.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758
4306 7764
$$
NYC037-055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.171106T1342Z-171107T0742Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0142Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until late tonight...
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until late tonight.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.2 feet
this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171106T2043Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T1443Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this afternoon.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 10.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flooding can be expected
in low lying areas east of Orchard Park Road and south of Ridge
Road in West Seneca. Some inundation of Cazenovia Park in South
Buffalo.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2325Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1725Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this evening.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC029-037-061952-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1348Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0748Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 5.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.3 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1618Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1618Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until late tonight.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commerical flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-061952-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2315Z-171108T1800Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2315Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1200Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday
evening and crest near 12.2 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC029-121-061422-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1128Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 7.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage this morning and will
continue to fall to around 4.9 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
HITCHCOCK061
WGUS81 KBUF 061703
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Rochester
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-063-062303-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T1920Z-171109T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T1920Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1800Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until Wednesday evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 8.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Tuesday afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC051-055-062303-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0108Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T1908Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this evening.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC055-061733-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Genesee River At Rochester.
* At 7 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below flood stage at 14.1 feet this
afternoon. Additional rises are not expected...and therefore the
warning is cancelled.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758
4306 7764
$$
NYC037-055-062303-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T0600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T0000Z.171108T0000Z.UU/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 6.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.8 feet
this evening.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-062303-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1200Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was 6.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
evening.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC029-061733-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171106T2043Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T1323Z.UU/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 8.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage this morning and will
continue to fall to around 4.6 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061733-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2325Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1417Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 5.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this morning and
will continue to fall to around 2.9 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
HITCHCOCK518
WGUS81 KBUF 061936
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-070136-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0000Z.171107T1200Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 10.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 10.8 feet
this evening.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-070135-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T1920Z-171109T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T1920Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1800Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 8.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Tuesday afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC051-055-070135-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0225Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2025Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this evening.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 33.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC037-055-070135-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1730Z.171107T1200Z.UU/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 6.5 feet and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-070135-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1200Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
evening.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
HITCHCOCK760
WGUS81 KBUF 070124
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1200Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 11.3 feet and near crest.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T1920Z-171109T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T1920Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1800Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Tuesday afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC037-055-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1730Z.171107T1200Z.UU/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 6.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-171107T1200Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0600Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0600Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 7.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage late
tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC051-055-070154-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0225Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2112Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Genesee River At Avon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 32.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this afternoon and
will continue to fall to around 22.3 feet by Wednesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
ChurchWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 5, 11:05 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 11:05 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1105 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly cross the area through early Monday morning
with several rounds of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, which
may result in flooding in some areas. High pressure will then bring
mainly dry and cool weather late Monday through Thursday. Even
colder air may arrive at the end of the week following a cold front
Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area of moderate to heavy rainfall will exit the North Country
through midnight while much of western NY see a break in
precipitation. However, the cold front remains just upstream,
nearing Toronto and Hamilton, Ontario, and will cross the region from
west to east between midnight and sunrise Monday. Rain showers will
redevelop along and ahead of the frontal boundary, with up to an
additional quarter inch possible. Thus the threat of additional
areal flooding overnight as diminished. This will allow for flooding
to slowly subside from west to east overnight and into Monday
morning. However, area creeks and rivers, including the Buffalo
creeks, will continue to rise overnight and into Monday morning as
the water continues to run off.
For Monday: The deeper synoptic moisture will pull away, but
northwest upslope flow and lake effect clouds will keep a good deal
of cloud cover through the day. While the airmass grows cold enough
to support lake effect clouds, the inversion remains too shallow at
5K feet to support any lake effect showers. Moderate cold advection
on Monday will force temperatures to fall from the 50s in the
morning to the 40s during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Throughout Monday night through Wednesday night, fairly high surface
pressure will extend from the Northern Plains east into the Great
Lakes region. This should ensure much needed dry weather for all of
WNY and CNY. It should be cool however, with highs mostly in the
40s and lows near or below freezing in valley bottoms.
There is only one problem - the NAM and its close variants have
been insistent in developing a surface wave and associated area
of precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night over PA close to the
inland sections of the Southern Tier. While there is some
credence to this scenario as there should be an upper level jet
over the nation's mid section that could conceivably create a
surface wave, the global models are much drier. For now will
lean toward the dry solution with the relatively high pressure
across the region. Precipitation would like be mostly or all
snow however, so it will be interesting to see if the other
models latch on to the NAM, or if the NAM backs off.
By late Tuesday night, all models are in better agreement with high
pressure settling across the region. Given saturated ground, valley
fog may result in Southern Tier and some other locations. Normally
this common occurrence wouldn't bee an issue, but fog formation
could also result in some black ice as temperatures drop into
the 20s.
By Wednesday, high pressure will continue with more dry but cool
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The coldest air of the very young winter season will arrive this
period as a strong upper level shortwave trough dips southward from
Canada and across the Great Lakes region. In fact this shortwave is
currently advancing northward from Greenland towards the North Pole
this Sunday evening...and will eventually transport arctic air
southward across the Canadian Prairies early this week.
For Thursday this shortwave trough of low pressure, and attendant
surface low will be to our west over the Central Great Lakes.
Southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will bring one more
typically mild, cloudy late autumn day to the Eastern Great Lakes
region with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A stray shower
or two cannot be ruled out with the southwest flow, but the better
chance will be Friday night and into early Saturday. Tracking the
shortwave it will not be tapping into any moisture source, with
continental polar air crossing the region late Thursday night and
early Friday morning. Will maintain just chance Pops for
showers/snow showers along a cold front but it may end up
being a dry frontal passage for some.
Behind the cold front Friday and Saturday, 850 hPa temperatures will
be dropping to around -12 to -16C with the cold air to the north.
Looking at 850 hPa temperature climatology for Buffalo...the coldest
temperature recorded at 12Z on the 11th is -12.9C, and the moving
average is -13.6C. This airmass will rival any of the coldest
airmasses that occurred on November 10th and 11th, and thus will
forecast temperatures even below what the model guidance has. There
is still some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front, and we
could see a few 'mild hours' Friday before the cold front sweeps
through with falling temperatures during the day...especially
towards the east. Highs later Friday and Saturday will likely be in
the low to mid 30s...with overnight lows Friday night and Saturday
night in the teens to 20s. Warmest areas will be right along the
shoreline where a lake still in the 50s will moderate the falling
overnight temperatures.
Since the source of this airmass is from the dry continental region,
lake effect response will be limited. Will hold onto a chance pop
into Friday evening for some lake snow showers south/southeast of
the lakes for scattered light lake effect snow showers. After this a
broad and strong area of high pressure will maintain precipitation
free weather Friday night through Saturday night...and possibly
through the remainder of the weekend. Below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the weekend...with Sunday perhaps not as
cold with temperatures nearing the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of western NY has seen an improvement to VFR late this evening
in the wake of heavy rainfall earlier this evening. However, expect
conditions to deteriorate back to MVFR overnight as a cold front
crosses the region and northwesterly upslope develops Monday
morning. Jamestown will likely see IFR ceilings develop behind the
cold front passage. All sites will likely remain MVFR through much
of the day Monday before cloud cover scatters out late in the day as
drier air builds into the region.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will become northwest on Monday behind a cold front. This will
bring another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south
shore of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a period of
lighter winds Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ043-
044.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCKHazardous weather outlook, Nov 5, 10:45 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 NYZ001>008-010>014-019-020-085-070345- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-070345- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ021-070345- Allegany- 1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Church
In the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 5, 9:57 PM EST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0853 PM FLOOD 3 NW HONEOYE FALLS 43.00N 77.63W
11/05/2017 MONROE NY SOCIAL MEDIA
FLOODING REPORTED ON RUSH MENDON RD IN RUSH
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701568
SJWLocal storm report, Nov 5, 10:12 PM EST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM FLOOD WARSAW 42.74N 78.14W
11/05/2017 WYOMING NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
FLOODING REPORTED IN WARSAW
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701569
SJWLocal storm report, Nov 5, 10:29 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0654 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE MAYVILLE 42.21N 79.47W
11/05/2017 CHAUTAUQUA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE DOWN AT CHAUTAUQUA INSTITUTION
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW CASSADAGA 42.32N 79.36W
11/05/2017 CHAUTAUQUA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE DOWN IN STOCKTON
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701570
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701571
THOMASLocal storm report, Nov 5, 10:35 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM FLOOD 2 SW BLASDELL 42.77N 78.87W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY COCORAHS
FLOODING REPORTED IN ATHOL SPRINGS
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701572
SJWLocal storm report, Nov 5, 10:47 PM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0856 PM FLOOD 1 SE EAST AURORA 42.76N 78.61W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROUTE 16 SOUTH CLOSED IN EAST AURORA
0901 PM FLOOD 1 SE SLOAN 42.88N 78.77W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
WILLIAM ST. CLOSED NEAR THRUWAY DUE TO FLOODING.
0933 PM FLOOD 2 SE ORCHARD PARK 42.75N 78.72W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
JEWETT HOLMWOOD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
1019 PM FLOOD SILVER CREEK 42.54N 79.17W
11/05/2017 CHAUTAUQUA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROUTE 5 CLOSED IN TOWN
1039 PM FLOOD 2 ESE EAST AURORA 42.76N 78.58W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
REITER ROAD CLOSED FROM ROUTE 20A TO LAPHAM ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701573
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701574
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701575
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701576
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701577
THOMASLocal storm report, Nov 6, 12:05 AM EST, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1205 AM EST MON NOV 06 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM FLOOD BLASDELL 42.80N 78.83W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY COCORAHS
FLOODING ON MARTIN RD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701578
KRAThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 7:07 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Allegany, Livingston, Monroe | 47 hr |
| Nov 5, 8:04 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 8:23 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Ontario, Wayne | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 9:26 PM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee | 36 hr |
| Nov 5, 9:26 PM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Wyoming | 41 hr |
| Nov 5, 9:48 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 10:54 PM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 11 hr |
| Nov 6, 4:50 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Monroe | 46 hr |
| Nov 6, 5:33 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe | 14 hr |
| Nov 6, 5:33 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 3 days |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in New York, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.