River Flood Warning 27, NWS Buffalo, NY

832 
WGUS81 KBUF 060411
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
  Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
  Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
  Tonawanda Creek At Attica
  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T1539Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0405Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0939Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 6.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage tonight 
  and crest near 8.4 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low 
  lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
  Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the 
  Bowen Road bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861 
      4282 7867 4282 7887            

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0027.171106T0546Z-171106T1500Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0546Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0900Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tonight and crest near 10.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, flooding along right bank a 
  half mile to a mile downstream from Gowanda, mostly in industrial 
  and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher 
  Creek in Gowanda and at Sunset Bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836 
      4238 7890 4254 7921            

$$

NYC029-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171106T1450Z/
/EBZN6.1.ER.171106T0359Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0850Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 9.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight 
  and crest near 11.7 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible 
  in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable 
  flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West 
  Seneca.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858 
      4273 7857 4275 7870            

$$

NYC029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1732Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0357Z.171106T0600Z.171106T1132Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight 
  and crest near 9.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding of backyards, 
  basements and streets in Village of Lancaster. Some flooding of low
  lying areas in Alden, Marilla, and Cheektowaga, especially near 
  Bowen Road and Transit Road. Some flooding possible near Union Road
  too.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864 
      4292 7848 4281 7846            

$$

NYC029-037-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from Monday evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 5.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday 
  evening and crest near 8.5 feet early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero 
  Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some 
  flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as 
  the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek 
  Park. Little or no overall damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875 
      4295 7865 4293 7865            

$$

NYC037-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1419Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0338Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0819Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Attica
* until Monday morning.
* At 11 PM Sunday the stage was 7.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight 
  and crest near 9.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, extensive flooding on 
  Prospect Street impacting the water treatment plant.  Some 
  residential flooding on Water and North Streets and the south end 
  of Exchange Street in Attica village.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817 
      4282 7822 4270 7827            

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-061010-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from Monday morning to late Monday night.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 4.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  Monday morning and crest near 9.5 feet early Monday afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main 
  Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from 
  Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some 
  residential and commercial flooding possible.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

809 
WGUS81 KBUF 060900
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Genesee River At Avon
  Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
  Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
  Tonawanda Creek At Attica
  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
  Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-061500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 12.2 feet
  this morning. 
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible 
  in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable 
  flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West 
  Seneca.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858 
      4273 7857 4275 7870            

$$

NYC029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2003Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T1200Z.171106T1403Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...

The flood warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 8.0 feet 
  this morning. 
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low 
  lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
  Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the 
  Bowen Road bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861 
      4282 7867 4282 7887            

$$

NYC051-055-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171106T1819Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1219Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...

The flood warning continues for
  The Genesee River At Avon
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas 
  from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with 
  little damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772 
      4279 7780 4278 7789            

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T1211Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...

The flood warning continues for
  The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
* until late this morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 10.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to fall below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, flooding along right bank a 
  half mile to a mile downstream from gowanda, mostly in industrial 
  and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher 
  Creek in Gowanda and at sunset bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836 
      4238 7890 4254 7921            

$$

NYC029-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until early this afternoon...

The flood warning continues for
  The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding of backyards, 
  basements and streets in Village of Lancaster. Some flooding of low
  lying areas in Alden, Marilla, and Cheektowaga, especially near 
  Bowen Road and Transit Road. Some flooding possible near Union Road
  too.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864 
      4292 7848 4281 7846            

$$

NYC029-037-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 5.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening and crest near 8.5 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero 
  Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some 
  flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as 
  the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek 
  Park. Little or no overall damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875 
      4295 7865 4293 7865            

$$

NYC037-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T0953Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until this morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Attica
* until this morning.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, extensive flooding on 
  Prospect Street impacting the water treatment plant. Some 
  residential flooding on Water and North Streets and the south end 
  of Exchange Street in Attica village.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817 
      4282 7822 4270 7827            

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main 
  Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from 
  Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some 
  residential and commercial flooding possible.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

Apffel

503 
WGUS81 KBUF 061103
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
  Tonawanda Creek At Attica

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Genesee River At Avon
  Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
  Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
  Genesee River At Rochester
  Oatka Creek At Garbutt
  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 12.3 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible 
  in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable 
  flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West 
  Seneca.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858 
      4273 7857 4275 7870            

$$

NYC051-055-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0251Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2051Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

...Flood warning extended until this evening...

The flood warning continues for
  The Genesee River at Avon
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop below
  flood stage late this afternoon. 
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas 
  from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with 
  little damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772 
      4279 7780 4278 7789            

$$

NYC055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0030.171106T1648Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.1.ER.171106T1648Z.171106T1800Z.171106T1900Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Genesee River At Rochester
* from this morning to this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning and crest near 15.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 15.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flood, some residential 
  flooding begins in southern suburbs in Henrietta and Chili. 

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758 
      4306 7764                      

$$

NYC037-055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.171106T1500Z-171107T0600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1500Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0000Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning and crest near 6.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
  land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$

NYC029-121-061702-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T1702Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1102Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low 
  lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
  Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the 
  Bowen Road bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861 
      4282 7867 4282 7887            

$$

NYC029-121-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Cayuga Creek near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek will continue to fall...and is expected to 
  drop below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flooding in low lying areas
  of Lancaster and Alden.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864 
      4292 7848 4281 7846            

$$

NYC029-037-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1348Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0748Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  evening and crest near 8.3 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero 
  Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some 
  flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as 
  the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek 
  Park. Little or no overall damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875 
      4295 7865 4293 7865            

$$

NYC037-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T1013Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Attica.
* At 6 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and 
  will continue to fall to around 4.5 feet by Tuesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817 
      4282 7822 4270 7827            

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 6.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main 
  Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from 
  Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some 
  residential and commercial flooding possible.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

NYC029-063-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2315Z-171108T1800Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2315Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1200Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday 
  evening and crest near 12.2 feet late Tuesday night.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

NYC009-013-029-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T0647Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and 
  will continue to fall to around 4.4 feet by Tuesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836 
      4238 7890 4254 7921            

$$

Apffel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
657 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly cross the area through early Monday morning
with several rounds of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, which
may result in flooding in some areas. High pressure will then bring
mainly dry and cool weather late Monday through Thursday. Even
colder air may arrive at the end of the week following a cold front
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
By early evening the next round of rain, the heaviest yet, will
arrive in Western NY. A strong mid level shortwave with associated
DPVA will spread across the eastern Great Lakes, with strong upper
level divergence in the right entrance region of a 120+ knot upper
level jet situated across Ontario and Quebec. At the same time, a
cold front will slowly push southeast across the area. A baroclinic
wave will develop along the front, and enhance low level convergence
and frontogenesis as the front moves across the region. PWAT reaches
1.4 inches this evening. While this would not be terribly high for
summer, at this time of year these PWAT values are 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. The combination of strong synoptic scale
forcing and anomalous moisture will set the stage for widespread
heavy rainfall across the region.

The heaviest rain will enter Western NY late this afternoon, then
spread rapidly northeast across the region through early evening.
Enough elevated instability exists to support scattered
thunderstorms as well with locally heavy rainfall. The majority of
the heavy rain will fall through about midnight, then taper off to
lighter rain late tonight as the stronger forcing and moisture
convergence moves east of the area. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-
1.5 inches are likely across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region from late this afternoon through tonight, with somewhat
lesser amounts from the Genesee Valley into the western Finger
Lakes. 2 day storm totals will exceed 2 inches across Western NY and
the eastern Lake Ontario region.

The majority of the severe weather potential will remain across Ohio
and PA where more favorable instability will be found. Expect
initial cellular convection to grow upscale into broken line
segments and progress across eastern Ohio and western PA this
evening. The northern end of this line of storms may clip the
southwest corner of NY with gusty winds and locally damaging winds
not out of the question across the western Southern Tier during the
early to mid evening.

Late tonight and Monday morning the cold front will move southeast
of the area, with showers ending from northwest to southeast. The
deeper synoptic moisture will pull away, but northwest upslope flow
and lake effect clouds will keep a good deal of cloud cover through
the day. While the airmass grows cold enough to support lake effect
clouds, the inversion remains too shallow at 5K feet to support any
lake effect showers. Moderate cold advection on Monday will force
temperatures to fall from the 50s in the morning to the 40s during
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Throughout Monday night through Wednesday night, fairly high surface
pressure will extend from the Northern Plains east into the Great
Lakes region.  This should ensure much needed dry weather for all of
WNY and CNY.  It should be cool however, with highs mostly in the
40s and lows near or below freezing in valley bottoms.

There is only one problem - the NAM and its close variants have
been insistent in developing a surface wave and associated area
of precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night over PA close to the
inland sections of the Southern Tier. While there is some
credence to this scenario as there should be an upper level jet
over the nation's mid section that could conceivably create a
surface wave, the global models are much drier. For now will
lean toward the dry solution with the relatively high pressure
across the region. Precipitation would like be mostly or all
snow however, so it will be interesting to see if the other
models latch on to the NAM, or if the NAM backs off.

By late Tuesday night, all models are in better agreement with high
pressure settling across the region.  Given saturated ground, valley
fog may result in Southern Tier and some other locations.  Normally
this common occurrence wouldn't bee an issue, but fog formation
could also result in some black ice as temperatures drop into
the 20s.

By Wednesday, high pressure will continue with more dry but cool
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The coldest air of the very young winter season will arrive this
period as a strong upper level shortwave trough dips southward from
Canada and across the Great Lakes region. In fact this shortwave is
currently advancing northward from Greenland towards the North Pole
this Sunday evening...and will eventually transport arctic air
southward across the Canadian Prairies early this week.

For Thursday this shortwave trough of low pressure, and attendant
surface low will be to our west over the Central Great Lakes.
Southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will bring one more
typically mild, cloudy late autumn day to the Eastern Great Lakes
region with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A stray shower
or two cannot be ruled out with the southwest flow, but the better
chance will be Friday night and into early Saturday. Tracking the
shortwave it will not be tapping into any moisture source, with
continental polar air crossing the region late Thursday night and
early Friday morning. Will maintain just chance Pops for
showers/snow showers along a cold front but it may end up
being a dry frontal passage for some.

Behind the cold front Friday and Saturday, 850 hPa temperatures will
be dropping to around -12 to -16C with the cold air to the north.
Looking at 850 hPa temperature climatology for Buffalo...the coldest
temperature recorded at 12Z on the 11th is -12.9C, and the moving
average is -13.6C. This airmass will rival any of the coldest
airmasses that occurred on November 10th and 11th, and thus will
forecast temperatures even below what the model guidance has. There
is still some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front, and we
could see a few 'mild hours' Friday before the cold front sweeps
through with falling temperatures during the day...especially
towards the east. Highs later Friday and Saturday will likely be in
the low to mid 30s...with overnight lows Friday night and Saturday
night in the teens to 20s. Warmest areas will be right along the
shoreline where a lake still in the 50s will moderate the falling
overnight temperatures.

Since the source of this airmass is from the dry continental region,
lake effect response will be limited. Will hold onto a chance pop
into Friday evening for some lake snow showers south/southeast of
the lakes for scattered light lake effect snow showers. After this a
broad and strong area of high pressure will maintain precipitation
free weather Friday night through Saturday night...and possibly
through the remainder of the weekend. Below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the weekend...with Sunday perhaps not as
cold with temperatures nearing the lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy rain and scattered thunder spreading across
western NY. This will produce additional areas of MVFR to IFR VSBY.
The heavier rain will taper off to light rain after midnight, with
the light rain ending from northwest to southeast Monday morning as
a cold front moves across the area.

IFR CIGS will become more widespread even at lower elevations this
evening and continue through much of tonight as the cold front
slowly crosses the area. On Monday IFR and MVFR CIGS will improve to
VFR through the course of the day.

Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become northwest on Monday behind a cold front. This will
bring another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south
shore of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a period of
lighter winds Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ004>008-014.
     Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ001>003-010>013-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

NYZ001>008-010>014-019-020-085-070345-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-070345-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ021-070345-
Allegany-
1045 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Church

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
949 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FLOOD            1 SW GATES-NORTH GATES  43.16N  77.71W
11/05/2017                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING IN GATES

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701567

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     FLOOD            3 NW HONEOYE FALLS      43.00N  77.63W
11/05/2017                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLOODING REPORTED ON RUSH MENDON RD IN RUSH

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701568

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLOOD            WARSAW                  42.74N  78.14W
11/05/2017                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED IN WARSAW

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701569

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE MAYVILLE          42.21N  79.47W
11/05/2017                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT CHAUTAUQUA INSTITUTION

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW CASSADAGA         42.32N  79.36W
11/05/2017                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN STOCKTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701570
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701571

THOMAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLOOD            2 SW BLASDELL           42.77N  78.87W
11/05/2017                   ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            FLOODING REPORTED IN ATHOL SPRINGS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701572

SJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     FLOOD            1 SE EAST AURORA        42.76N  78.61W
11/05/2017                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 16 SOUTH CLOSED IN EAST AURORA

0901 PM     FLOOD            1 SE SLOAN              42.88N  78.77W
11/05/2017                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WILLIAM ST. CLOSED NEAR THRUWAY DUE TO FLOODING.

0933 PM     FLOOD            2 SE ORCHARD PARK       42.75N  78.72W
11/05/2017                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JEWETT HOLMWOOD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1019 PM     FLOOD            SILVER CREEK            42.54N  79.17W
11/05/2017                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 5 CLOSED IN TOWN

1039 PM     FLOOD            2 ESE EAST AURORA       42.76N  78.58W
11/05/2017                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REITER ROAD CLOSED FROM ROUTE 20A TO LAPHAM ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701573
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701574
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701575
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701576
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701577

THOMAS