Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2017
River Flood Warning 26, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Nov 5, 2017, 9:26 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Nov 6, 2017, 11:18 AM EST. It was in force for 27 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 5, 2017, 9:26 PM EST (02:26 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 6, 2017, 11:18 AM EST
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2017, 2:46 PM EST
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Tonawanda Creek at Batavia (BTVN6). The gauge peaked at 11.23 ft at Nov 6, 2017, 8:00 PM EST.
- Action stage
- 7 ft
- Minor stage
- 9 ft
- Moderate stage
- 10 ft
- Major stage
- 12 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04217000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
116
WGUS41 KBUF 060226
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
...The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Flood Warning
for The following rivers in New York...
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for The
following rivers in New York...
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-121-060826-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.171106T0342Z-171106T1539Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0342Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0939Z.NO/
926 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate SEVERITY...
The flood warning continues for
the Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until Monday morning.
* At 8 PM Sunday the stage was 5.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
and crest near 8.4 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC029-037-060826-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
926 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Flood warning for
the Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from Monday evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 9 PM Sunday the stage was 5.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday
evening and crest near 8.5 feet early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-060826-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
926 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Flood warning for
the Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from Monday morning to late Monday night.
* At 9 PM Sunday the stage was 4.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
Monday morning and crest near 9.5 feet early Monday afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commerical flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
Thomas11 follow-up statements
832
WGUS81 KBUF 060411
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Attica
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T1539Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0405Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0939Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 6.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
and crest near 8.4 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC009-013-029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0027.171106T0546Z-171106T1500Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0546Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0900Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
tonight and crest near 10.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, flooding along right bank a
half mile to a mile downstream from Gowanda, mostly in industrial
and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher
Creek in Gowanda and at Sunset Bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
4238 7890 4254 7921
$$
NYC029-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171106T1450Z/
/EBZN6.1.ER.171106T0359Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0850Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* Until Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 9.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
and crest near 11.7 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible
in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable
flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West
Seneca.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1732Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0357Z.171106T0600Z.171106T1132Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
and crest near 9.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding of backyards,
basements and streets in Village of Lancaster. Some flooding of low
lying areas in Alden, Marilla, and Cheektowaga, especially near
Bowen Road and Transit Road. Some flooding possible near Union Road
too.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
NYC029-037-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from Monday evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 5.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday
evening and crest near 8.5 feet early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC037-121-061011-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1419Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0338Z.171106T0600Z.171106T0819Z.UU/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Attica
* until Monday morning.
* At 11 PM Sunday the stage was 7.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage tonight
and crest near 9.2 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, extensive flooding on
Prospect Street impacting the water treatment plant. Some
residential flooding on Water and North Streets and the south end
of Exchange Street in Attica village.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817
4282 7822 4270 7827
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061010-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
1111 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from Monday morning to late Monday night.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 4.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
Monday morning and crest near 9.5 feet early Monday afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$809
WGUS81 KBUF 060900
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
Tonawanda Creek At Attica
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-061500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 12.2 feet
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible
in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable
flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West
Seneca.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2003Z/
/GDVN6.2.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T1200Z.171106T1403Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to rise and crest near 8.0 feet
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC051-055-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171106T1819Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1219Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC009-013-029-121-061500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T1211Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
* until late this morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 10.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to fall below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, flooding along right bank a
half mile to a mile downstream from gowanda, mostly in industrial
and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher
Creek in Gowanda and at sunset bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
4238 7890 4254 7921
$$
NYC029-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until early this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding of backyards,
basements and streets in Village of Lancaster. Some flooding of low
lying areas in Alden, Marilla, and Cheektowaga, especially near
Bowen Road and Transit Road. Some flooding possible near Union Road
too.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
NYC029-037-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1430Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0830Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 5.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.5 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC037-121-061459-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T0953Z.UU/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Attica
* until this morning.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 9.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, extensive flooding on
Prospect Street impacting the water treatment plant. Some
residential flooding on Water and North Streets and the south end
of Exchange Street in Attica village.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817
4282 7822 4270 7827
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061459-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
400 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 3 AM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
Apffel503
WGUS81 KBUF 061103
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda
Tonawanda Creek At Attica
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Genesee River At Rochester
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171107T0400Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T2200Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 12.3 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, localized flooding possible
in vicinity of Southgate Plaza in West Seneca; considerable
flooding in the Cazenovia Park area of South Buffalo and West
Seneca.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC051-055-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0251Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1200Z.171106T2051Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River at Avon
* until this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop below
flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0030.171106T1648Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.1.ER.171106T1648Z.171106T1800Z.171106T1900Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Rochester
* from this morning to this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 15.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 15.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flood, some residential
flooding begins in southern suburbs in Henrietta and Chili.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758
4306 7764
$$
NYC037-055-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.171106T1500Z-171107T0600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1500Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0000Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 6.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-121-061702-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T1702Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1102Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC029-121-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1146Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cayuga Creek near Lancaster
* until this afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flooding in low lying areas
of Lancaster and Alden.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
NYC029-037-061703-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1348Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0748Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 5.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.3 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC037-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-171106T1553Z/
/ATTN6.1.ER.171106T0335Z.171106T0731Z.171106T1013Z.UU/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Tonawanda Creek At Attica.
* At 6 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and
will continue to fall to around 4.5 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7837 4282 7833 4293 7832 4293 7817
4282 7822 4270 7827
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1630Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1630Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 6.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-061703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2315Z-171108T1800Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2315Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1200Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 7.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday
evening and crest near 12.2 feet late Tuesday night.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC009-013-029-121-061133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-171106T1811Z/
/GOWN6.1.ER.171106T0434Z.171106T0530Z.171106T0647Z.NO/
603 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 9.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and
will continue to fall to around 4.4 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
4238 7890 4254 7921
$$
Apffel091
WGUS81 KBUF 061352
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New
York...
Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Genesee River At Rochester
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC051-055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0247Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2047Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this evening.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 34.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0030.171106T1734Z-171107T0100Z/
/RHRN6.1.ER.171106T1734Z.171106T1800Z.171106T1900Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Rochester
* from this afternoon to this evening.
* At 5 AM Monday the stage was 13.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
afternoon and crest near 15.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 15.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flood, some residential
flooding begins in southern suburbs, mile 12-18 in Henrietta and
Chili. Flow 20000 cfs.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7776 4327 7763 4324 7757 4315 7758
4306 7764
$$
NYC037-055-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.171106T1342Z-171107T0742Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0142Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until late tonight...
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until late tonight.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.2 feet
this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-171106T2043Z/
/EBZN6.2.ER.171106T0443Z.171106T1016Z.171106T1443Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer
* until this afternoon.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 10.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, minor flooding can be expected
in low lying areas east of Orchard Park Road and south of Ridge
Road in West Seneca. Some inundation of Cazenovia Park in South
Buffalo.
&&
LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
4273 7857 4275 7870
$$
NYC029-121-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T2325Z/
/GDVN6.1.ER.171106T0449Z.171106T0945Z.171106T1725Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville
* until this evening.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding is likely along low
lying areas near the Buffalo Creek, especially near Collins Avenue,
Elma Town Park, and in some sections of Elma Village north of the
Bowen Road bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
4282 7867 4282 7887
$$
NYC029-037-061952-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1348Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0748Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 5.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 8.3 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-061952-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.171106T1618Z-171107T1048Z/
/BTVN6.1.ER.171106T1618Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0448Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until late tonight.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this morning and crest near 9.5 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commerical flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-061952-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2315Z-171108T1800Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2315Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1200Z.NO/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday
evening and crest near 12.2 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC029-121-061422-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-171106T1746Z/
/LCSN6.1.ER.171106T0403Z.171106T0815Z.171106T1128Z.UU/
852 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 7.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage this morning and will
continue to fall to around 4.9 feet by Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
4292 7848 4281 7846
$$
HITCHCOCK648
WGUS41 KBUF 061641
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1141 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for The
following rivers in New York...
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-062241-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T1415Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171106T1800Z.171107T0815Z.NO/
1141 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate SEVERITY...
The flood warning continues for
the Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 9.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Moderate Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 10.1 feet
late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
HITCHCOCK518
WGUS81 KBUF 061936
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-070136-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0000Z.171107T1200Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 10.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 10.8 feet
this evening.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-070135-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T1920Z-171109T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T1920Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1800Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 8.4 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Tuesday afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC051-055-070135-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0225Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2025Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...Flood warning extended until this evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Genesee River At Avon
* until this evening.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 33.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 33.0 feet...Flood stage, river overflows at many areas
from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with
little damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
NYC037-055-070135-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1730Z.171107T1200Z.UU/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 6.5 feet and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-070135-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.171107T0000Z-171107T1200Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0000Z.171107T0000Z.171107T0600Z.NO/
236 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* from this evening to Tuesday morning.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
evening.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
HITCHCOCK760
WGUS81 KBUF 070124
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Genesee River At Avon
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1200Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 11.3 feet and near crest.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T1920Z-171109T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T1920Z.171108T0600Z.171108T1800Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 8.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Tuesday afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC037-055-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171106T1730Z.171107T1200Z.UU/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 6.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-070724-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-171107T1200Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T0600Z.171107T0600Z.171107T0600Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 7.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage late
tonight.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
NYC051-055-070154-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171107T0225Z/
/AVON6.1.ER.171106T0454Z.171106T1215Z.171106T2112Z.NO/
824 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Genesee River At Avon.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 32.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this afternoon and
will continue to fall to around 22.3 feet by Wednesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
4279 7780 4278 7789
$$
Church739
WGUS81 KBUF 070714
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-071314-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1642Z.NO/
214 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until this afternoon.
* At 2 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood, flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commerical flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-071314-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2125Z-171109T0234Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2125Z.171108T0600Z.171108T2034Z.NO/
214 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until Wednesday evening...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from this afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 2 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC037-055-071314-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T0700Z.171107T1200Z.UU/
214 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until this afternoon.
* At 2 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage this morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC029-037-071314-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.171107T1200Z.171107T1200Z.171107T1200Z.NO/
214 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until this afternoon...
The flood warning continues for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
* until this afternoon.
* At 2 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
morning.
* IMPACT...At 8.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding begins along Aero
Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some
flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as
the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek
Park. Little or no overall damage.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$
TMA715
WGUS81 KBUF 071144
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Black Creek At Churchville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC029-037-063-121-071744-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1642Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until this afternoon.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood. Flooding along West Main
Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from
Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some
residential and commercial flooding possible.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-071743-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2125Z-171109T0234Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2125Z.171108T0600Z.171108T2034Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from this afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late
this afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage. Lowland flooding of farm areas
along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian
Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and
Tonawanda Creek Roads.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$
NYC037-055-071743-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1424Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1200Z.171108T0824Z.UU/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.7 feet
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC037-055-071743-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0032.171107T1141Z-171108T0730Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1800Z.171108T0130Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Black Creek At Churchville
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.2 feet
this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural
land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to
Chili but minimal damages.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
4312 7765
$$
NYC029-037-071214-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/WILN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river crested below flood stage at 7.8 feet. The
river will Continue to fall to around 3.7 feet by Wednesday
morning.
&&
LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
4295 7865 4293 7865
$$327
WGUS81 KBUF 071653
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Black Creek At Churchville
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC037-055-072253-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T1000Z.UU/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC037-055-072253-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1330Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1800Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Black Creek At Churchville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.4 feet
this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural
land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to
Chili but minimal damages.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
4312 7765
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-072242-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1642Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until this afternoon.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Nonflood flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 9.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding in Batavia,
possibly impacting Kibbe Park, Walnut Street, and Law Street.
Flooding in rural areas of Alexander and the lowlands of the
Alabama Swamps with some road closures likely.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-072252-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T0810Z-171109T1520Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T0810Z.171108T1800Z.171109T0920Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...Flood warning extended until Thursday morning...
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from late tonight to Thursday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Wednesday morning and crest near 13.3 feet early Wednesday
afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding
with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as
Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low
lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott
Road, with widespread farmland flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$847
WGUS81 KBUF 071946
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Oatka Creek At Garbutt
Black Creek At Churchville
Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC037-055-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T1000Z.UU/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of
agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding
along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville.
Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from
Genesee River near Scottsville.
&&
LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
4297 7802 4302 7798
$$
NYC037-055-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1330Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1930Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Black Creek At Churchville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop
below flood stage late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural
land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to
Chili but minimal damages.
&&
LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
4312 7765
$$
NYC029-037-063-121-072016-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1626Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this morning and
will continue to fall to around 6.6 feet by Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 9.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding in Batavia,
possibly impacting Kibbe Park, Walnut Street, and Law Street.
Flooding in rural areas of Alexander and the lowlands of the
Alabama Swamps with some road closures likely.
&&
LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
4293 7817 4293 7832
$$
NYC029-063-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T0810Z-171109T1520Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T0810Z.171108T1800Z.171109T0920Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017
The flood warning continues for
The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from late tonight to Thursday morning.
* At 3 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Wednesday morning and crest near 13.3 feet early Wednesday
afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding
with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as
Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low
lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott
Road, with widespread farmland flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
4315 7847 4302 7846
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 5, 6:57 PM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 6:57 PM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
657 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly cross the area through early Monday morning
with several rounds of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, which
may result in flooding in some areas. High pressure will then bring
mainly dry and cool weather late Monday through Thursday. Even
colder air may arrive at the end of the week following a cold front
Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
By early evening the next round of rain, the heaviest yet, will
arrive in Western NY. A strong mid level shortwave with associated
DPVA will spread across the eastern Great Lakes, with strong upper
level divergence in the right entrance region of a 120+ knot upper
level jet situated across Ontario and Quebec. At the same time, a
cold front will slowly push southeast across the area. A baroclinic
wave will develop along the front, and enhance low level convergence
and frontogenesis as the front moves across the region. PWAT reaches
1.4 inches this evening. While this would not be terribly high for
summer, at this time of year these PWAT values are 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. The combination of strong synoptic scale
forcing and anomalous moisture will set the stage for widespread
heavy rainfall across the region.
The heaviest rain will enter Western NY late this afternoon, then
spread rapidly northeast across the region through early evening.
Enough elevated instability exists to support scattered
thunderstorms as well with locally heavy rainfall. The majority of
the heavy rain will fall through about midnight, then taper off to
lighter rain late tonight as the stronger forcing and moisture
convergence moves east of the area. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-
1.5 inches are likely across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region from late this afternoon through tonight, with somewhat
lesser amounts from the Genesee Valley into the western Finger
Lakes. 2 day storm totals will exceed 2 inches across Western NY and
the eastern Lake Ontario region.
The majority of the severe weather potential will remain across Ohio
and PA where more favorable instability will be found. Expect
initial cellular convection to grow upscale into broken line
segments and progress across eastern Ohio and western PA this
evening. The northern end of this line of storms may clip the
southwest corner of NY with gusty winds and locally damaging winds
not out of the question across the western Southern Tier during the
early to mid evening.
Late tonight and Monday morning the cold front will move southeast
of the area, with showers ending from northwest to southeast. The
deeper synoptic moisture will pull away, but northwest upslope flow
and lake effect clouds will keep a good deal of cloud cover through
the day. While the airmass grows cold enough to support lake effect
clouds, the inversion remains too shallow at 5K feet to support any
lake effect showers. Moderate cold advection on Monday will force
temperatures to fall from the 50s in the morning to the 40s during
the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Throughout Monday night through Wednesday night, fairly high surface
pressure will extend from the Northern Plains east into the Great
Lakes region. This should ensure much needed dry weather for all of
WNY and CNY. It should be cool however, with highs mostly in the
40s and lows near or below freezing in valley bottoms.
There is only one problem - the NAM and its close variants have
been insistent in developing a surface wave and associated area
of precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night over PA close to the
inland sections of the Southern Tier. While there is some
credence to this scenario as there should be an upper level jet
over the nation's mid section that could conceivably create a
surface wave, the global models are much drier. For now will
lean toward the dry solution with the relatively high pressure
across the region. Precipitation would like be mostly or all
snow however, so it will be interesting to see if the other
models latch on to the NAM, or if the NAM backs off.
By late Tuesday night, all models are in better agreement with high
pressure settling across the region. Given saturated ground, valley
fog may result in Southern Tier and some other locations. Normally
this common occurrence wouldn't bee an issue, but fog formation
could also result in some black ice as temperatures drop into
the 20s.
By Wednesday, high pressure will continue with more dry but cool
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The coldest air of the very young winter season will arrive this
period as a strong upper level shortwave trough dips southward from
Canada and across the Great Lakes region. In fact this shortwave is
currently advancing northward from Greenland towards the North Pole
this Sunday evening...and will eventually transport arctic air
southward across the Canadian Prairies early this week.
For Thursday this shortwave trough of low pressure, and attendant
surface low will be to our west over the Central Great Lakes.
Southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will bring one more
typically mild, cloudy late autumn day to the Eastern Great Lakes
region with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A stray shower
or two cannot be ruled out with the southwest flow, but the better
chance will be Friday night and into early Saturday. Tracking the
shortwave it will not be tapping into any moisture source, with
continental polar air crossing the region late Thursday night and
early Friday morning. Will maintain just chance Pops for
showers/snow showers along a cold front but it may end up
being a dry frontal passage for some.
Behind the cold front Friday and Saturday, 850 hPa temperatures will
be dropping to around -12 to -16C with the cold air to the north.
Looking at 850 hPa temperature climatology for Buffalo...the coldest
temperature recorded at 12Z on the 11th is -12.9C, and the moving
average is -13.6C. This airmass will rival any of the coldest
airmasses that occurred on November 10th and 11th, and thus will
forecast temperatures even below what the model guidance has. There
is still some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front, and we
could see a few 'mild hours' Friday before the cold front sweeps
through with falling temperatures during the day...especially
towards the east. Highs later Friday and Saturday will likely be in
the low to mid 30s...with overnight lows Friday night and Saturday
night in the teens to 20s. Warmest areas will be right along the
shoreline where a lake still in the 50s will moderate the falling
overnight temperatures.
Since the source of this airmass is from the dry continental region,
lake effect response will be limited. Will hold onto a chance pop
into Friday evening for some lake snow showers south/southeast of
the lakes for scattered light lake effect snow showers. After this a
broad and strong area of high pressure will maintain precipitation
free weather Friday night through Saturday night...and possibly
through the remainder of the weekend. Below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the weekend...with Sunday perhaps not as
cold with temperatures nearing the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate to heavy rain and scattered thunder spreading across
western NY. This will produce additional areas of MVFR to IFR VSBY.
The heavier rain will taper off to light rain after midnight, with
the light rain ending from northwest to southeast Monday morning as
a cold front moves across the area.
IFR CIGS will become more widespread even at lower elevations this
evening and continue through much of tonight as the cold front
slowly crosses the area. On Monday IFR and MVFR CIGS will improve to
VFR through the course of the day.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will become northwest on Monday behind a cold front. This will
bring another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south
shore of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a period of
lighter winds Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ004>008-014.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ001>003-010>013-
019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ043-
044.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCKHazardous weather outlook, Nov 5, 4:18 AM EST, 17 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 418 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 NYZ001>008-011-013-014-061000- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- 418 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-012-019>021-085-061000- Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 418 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-061000- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 418 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-061000- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 418 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 5, 3:50 PM EST, 5 hours 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017
NYZ010-085-052115-
Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
350 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...
At 347 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Angola On The
Lake, or 15 miles west of Hamburg, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Winds gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible with this storm, strongest
near the Lake Erie shoreline.
Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Lackawanna, Depew, Lancaster,
Hamburg, East Aurora, Elma and Orchard Park.
This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 52.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not driveour vehicle through flooded roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 4267 7912 4273 7908 4276 7898 4280 7892
4283 7893 4285 7892 4295 7868 4272 7855
4266 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 246DEG 36KT 4270 7914
ChurchLocal storm report, Nov 5, 9:15 PM EST, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
915 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0631 PM FLOOD 4 NW EDEN 42.70N 78.96W
11/05/2017 ERIE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
SOUTH CREEK ROAD CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN TOWN OF
EVANS.
0800 PM FLOOD 3 SE FREDONIA 42.41N 79.30W
11/05/2017 CHAUTAUQUA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROUTE 60 CLOSED FROM WEBSTER ROAD TO SPODEN ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701563
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701564
THOMASThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 7:07 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Allegany, Livingston, Monroe | 47 hr |
| Nov 5, 8:04 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 8:23 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Ontario, Wayne | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 9:26 PM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee | 36 hr |
| Nov 5, 9:48 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 24 hr |
| Nov 5, 10:54 PM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 11 hr |
| Nov 6, 12:14 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Livingston, Monroe | 20 hr |
| Nov 6, 4:50 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Monroe | 46 hr |
| Nov 6, 5:33 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe | 14 hr |
| Nov 6, 5:33 AM EST | River Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 3 days |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in New York, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.