Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Upper level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley has
progressed only slightly eastward today, as an upper level ridge
axis remains oriented east to west along the northern Gulf coast.
This pattern has been in place for several days now, and like
previous days, we see scattered to numerous showers and storms
across north Alabama, closer to the trough and deeper moisture.

A few storms have been strong to severe, with strong wind gusts.
With saturated soil conditions, sub-severe winds will bring down
trees as well. Activity will diminish in coverage this evening,
but with the trough inching closer tonight, isolated to scattered
coverage could be possible across the north overnight.

14

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Wednesday.

A weak surface low slides eastward through the Ohio River Valley on
Thursday, stretching a cold front down through Northern MS and
Northwestern AL. As the front and associated trough axis slowly
slide southeastward through Central AL, expect increased chances of
rain and thunderstorms. Models disagree on when the front pushes
into the area, with the GFS and EC bringing better rain chances into
the northern portions of Central AL as early as Thursday afternoon.
However, the NAM and higher-resolution CAMs keep the front back
until the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning.
Therefore, it comes down to timing as far as rain and thunderstorm
coverage. If the line moves in Thursday afternoon or evening, expect
more coverage north of the I-20 corridor. If the NAM and CAMs
verify, we could see more scattered coverage. Given the high
PWATs Thursday, some of these storms will be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. If convection is
able to develop Thursday afternoon/evening, dry air aloft will
lead to DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg, so cannot rule out isolated
winds gusts of 35-45 mph near any stronger storms.

The weak frontal boundary begins to stall over the Deep South Friday
through Monday , which will lead to chances for rain and storms each
day across much of the area during peak heating. For now, have
roughly 50% coverage south of I-20 corridor Friday where the best
lift will be located. Saturday, models hint at a shortwave in the
larger scale trough moving through, which would provide enough
lift north of the stalled front, so I have included 45-50%
coverage for most of the area on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday,
the best lift, and therefore rain chances, will be limited to the
southern one-third of Central AL closer to the stalled frontal
boundary.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, southerly flow returns as the upper
trough flattens causing the previously stalled frontal boundary to
lift northward as an effective warm front. Expect scattered
afternoon thunderstorms both days with Central AL with the moist
southerly flow.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed across north
Central Alabama, and expect this activity to continue through much
of the afternoon, occasionally impacting northern terminals. Any
storm has the potential for strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall
causing brief reductions in vis.

Coverage of storms should diminish with loss of daytime heating, but
will need to monitor for activity beyond 01-02Z.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
northern half of Central Alabama through tonight, with rain-free
conditions across the southern half. Somewhat better rain chances
will move in Thursday due to an upper-level disturbance. There are
no fire weather concerns due to summertime humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  72  87  71 /  30  50  40  30  20
Anniston    74  88  72  87  72 /  30  40  40  40  20
Birmingham  76  88  74  87  73 /  30  40  40  40  20
Tuscaloosa  75  89  73  88  73 /  20  30  40  40  20
Calera      75  89  73  87  73 /  20  30  40  50  20
Auburn      74  89  72  87  72 /   0  20  30  40  20
Montgomery  75  92  75  90  75 /   0  10  30  50  20
Troy        74  90  72  88  72 /   0  10  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

ALZ024-026-052130-
Jefferson AL-St. Clair AL-
348 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND WEST
CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 348 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alton, or over Trussville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Trussville, Irondale, Leeds, Moody, Springville,
Odenville, Pinson-Clay-chalkv, Center Point, Clay, Pinson, Margaret,
Argo, Chalkville, Alton, Grayson Valley, Barber Motorsports Park,
Shops Of Grand River, Branchville and Birmingham Race Course.

LAT...LON 3371 8638 3352 8656 3351 8657 3350 8657
      3358 8673 3377 8660 3377 8658 3378 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 220DEG 18KT 3361 8662

89^GSatterwhite

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