Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Upper level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley has
progressed only slightly eastward today, as an upper level ridge
axis remains oriented east to west along the northern Gulf coast.
This pattern has been in place for several days now, and like
previous days, we see scattered to numerous showers and storms
across north Alabama, closer to the trough and deeper moisture.

A few storms have been strong to severe, with strong wind gusts.
With saturated soil conditions, sub-severe winds will bring down
trees as well. Activity will diminish in coverage this evening,
but with the trough inching closer tonight, isolated to scattered
coverage could be possible across the north overnight.

14

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Wednesday.

A weak surface low slides eastward through the Ohio River Valley on
Thursday, stretching a cold front down through Northern MS and
Northwestern AL. As the front and associated trough axis slowly
slide southeastward through Central AL, expect increased chances of
rain and thunderstorms. Models disagree on when the front pushes
into the area, with the GFS and EC bringing better rain chances into
the northern portions of Central AL as early as Thursday afternoon.
However, the NAM and higher-resolution CAMs keep the front back
until the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning.
Therefore, it comes down to timing as far as rain and thunderstorm
coverage. If the line moves in Thursday afternoon or evening, expect
more coverage north of the I-20 corridor. If the NAM and CAMs
verify, we could see more scattered coverage. Given the high
PWATs Thursday, some of these storms will be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. If convection is
able to develop Thursday afternoon/evening, dry air aloft will
lead to DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg, so cannot rule out isolated
winds gusts of 35-45 mph near any stronger storms.

The weak frontal boundary begins to stall over the Deep South Friday
through Monday , which will lead to chances for rain and storms each
day across much of the area during peak heating. For now, have
roughly 50% coverage south of I-20 corridor Friday where the best
lift will be located. Saturday, models hint at a shortwave in the
larger scale trough moving through, which would provide enough
lift north of the stalled front, so I have included 45-50%
coverage for most of the area on Saturday. By Sunday and Monday,
the best lift, and therefore rain chances, will be limited to the
southern one-third of Central AL closer to the stalled frontal
boundary.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, southerly flow returns as the upper
trough flattens causing the previously stalled frontal boundary to
lift northward as an effective warm front. Expect scattered
afternoon thunderstorms both days with Central AL with the moist
southerly flow.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed across north
Central Alabama, and expect this activity to continue through much
of the afternoon, occasionally impacting northern terminals. Any
storm has the potential for strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall
causing brief reductions in vis.

Coverage of storms should diminish with loss of daytime heating, but
will need to monitor for activity beyond 01-02Z.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
northern half of Central Alabama through tonight, with rain-free
conditions across the southern half. Somewhat better rain chances
will move in Thursday due to an upper-level disturbance. There are
no fire weather concerns due to summertime humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  72  87  71 /  30  50  40  30  20
Anniston    74  88  72  87  72 /  30  40  40  40  20
Birmingham  76  88  74  87  73 /  30  40  40  40  20
Tuscaloosa  75  89  73  88  73 /  20  30  40  40  20
Calera      75  89  73  87  73 /  20  30  40  50  20
Auburn      74  89  72  87  72 /   0  20  30  40  20
Montgomery  75  92  75  90  75 /   0  10  30  50  20
Troy        74  90  72  88  72 /   0  10  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
339 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-061145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
339 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

ALZ024-052045-
Jefferson AL-
257 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Irondale, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Mountain Brook, Trussville, Irondale, Pinson-Clay-chalkv,
Center Point, Clay, Pinson, Tarrant, Argo, Chalkville, Alton, Grayson
Valley, Birmingham Airport, Palmerdale, Village Springs, Birmingham
Race Course, Ruffner Mountain and Cloverdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 8665 3377 8665 3377 8662 3373 8653
      3364 8653 3350 8668 3355 8678 3379 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 213DEG 14KT 3356 8670

89^GSatterwhite

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
336 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GADSDEN                 34.01N 86.01W
07/05/2017                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF GADSDEN. GADSDEN
            AIRPORT AWOS REPORTED A 44MPH GUST AS THE
            STORMS MOVED THROUGH.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE RUFFNER MOUNTAIN  33.58N 86.69W
07/05/2017                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            800 BLOCK OF COVINGTON AVENUE IN E BHAM, BFR
            HAS A TREE ON HOUSE WITH LINES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. CORRECTED STREET
            LOCATION.

&&

GGOGGINS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

ALZ024-052115-
Jefferson AL-
345 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adamsville, or 7 miles north of Fairfield, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Gardendale, Fultondale, Adamsville, Graysville,
Brookside, Cardiff, Forestdale and Docena.

LAT...LON 3355 8693 3358 8700 3376 8691 3369 8674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 212DEG 13KT 3359 8695

89^GSatterwhite