Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1204 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We're tracking a line of storms moving through Western Tennessee
this evening. This line will track southeastward and move through
the Central AL region through the overnight hours tonight. General
timing is expected to be after midnight for our northwestern
counties, reaching the Birmingham Metro around 2-4am.
The severe threat is expected to be confined to the northern half
of Central AL (mainly north of I-20 corridor). In this area, the
low level jet has increased the low-level shear values just enough
to support organized updrafts in the storms as the the front makes
its way through. Much of the instability remains elevated, which
will limit any tornado threat, but will support damaging winds and
hail.
South of the I-20 corridor, the shear is more unidirectional and
0-6km bulk shear does not support as organized of updrafts. The
question will be just how far south the better environment
stretches. For now, keeping the I-20 corridor as a rough
delineation, but it could extend a little south of that line. The
further south you go, elevated instability is still present, so
would expect some sub-severe thunderstorms still possible from
4am to 7am. By 7-8am, the front is expected to exit Central AL,
ending the rain/storm chances.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

All sites start off VFR, but there will be tsra and lower ceilings
moving into Central Alabama from northwest to southeast. I have
this activity moving near the northern sites by around 09z and
sticking around through around 12z. Ceilings should drop into the
neighborhood of 012 during this time. This convective activity is
well ahead of a cold front and winds will not swing around to the
north until around 17-18z.

The southern sites will see ceilings drop to MVFR around 10z.
Thunder is not as confident south, so have vcsh from 11-17z time
frame. This will have to be watched as the activity drops
southward overnight. Ceilings improve just after 18z as the front
moves by.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moistening will continue this afternoon into tonight with a line
of showers and storms expected to affect much of the area. A
second system will bring widespread rainfall to the area Saturday
night and Sunday morning. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  66  35  60  38 /  90  10   0  20  90
Anniston    57  69  38  63  39 /  90  20   0  20  90
Birmingham  62  68  38  61  38 /  90  20   0  30  90
Tuscaloosa  61  72  40  65  40 /  90  20   0  30  80
Calera      59  70  40  64  40 /  90  30   0  30  90
Auburn      56  73  42  66  46 /  40  40   0  10  90
Montgomery  59  77  44  70  46 /  30  40   0  20  90
Troy        60  77  44  71  50 /  30  50   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
330 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-111230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
330 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this morning across South-
Central Alabama. Mainly south of the I-20 corridor. The main threat
with these storms will be damaging winds up to 60 miles per hour and
small hail. Storms should exit the region by 10 A.M.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The Spring Freeze program has begun. Temperatures will be close or
just below freezing briefly both Monday and Tuesday mornings across
the far northern row of counties. Higher confidence that most of the
area will be below freezing Wednesday morning and a Freeze Watch may
be necessary the closer we get.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
341 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

ALZ038-101045-
Chambers AL-
341 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY UNTIL 445 AM
CST...

At 341 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Standing Rock to Sparkling Springs.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Stroud, La Fayette, Red Level, Waverly,
Lakeview, Cusseta, Post Oak Forks, Denson, River View, Amity Park,
Sturkie, Abanda, Standing Rock, Welch, Trammel Crossroads, Ridge
Grove and Buffalo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8514 3275 8514 3275 8528 3273 8529
      3273 8540 3274 8541 3274 8543 3273 8543
      3274 8549 3273 8549 3274 8557 3273 8559
      3311 8559 3311 8523 3286 8519 3285 8516
      3281 8517 3278 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 327DEG 24KT 3315 8526 3308 8557

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

ALZ033-040-041-043-101045-
Autauga AL-Dallas AL-Perry AL-Elmore AL-
351 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AUTAUGA...ELMORE...NORTHEASTERN
PERRY AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CST...

At 351 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Western Lake Martin to Verbena to near
Harrisburg. Movement was south at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Prattville, Selma, Millbrook, Wetumpka, Tallassee, Valley Grande,
Selmont-West Selmont, Elmore, Coosada, Deatsville, Eclectic,
Autaugaville, Billingsley, Martin Dam, Santuck, Tyler, Titus, Autauga
County Airport, Ten Cedar Estates and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8717 3283 8729 3282 8702 3266 8702
      3266 8672 3271 8671 3277 8634 3275 8588
      3248 8586 3241 8605 3250 8626 3241 8631
      3241 8646 3234 8652 3241 8662 3235 8668
      3239 8678 3228 8686 3223 8681 3221 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 345DEG 44KT 3281 8599 3275 8652 3281 8720

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
405 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

ALZ047-101045-
Lee AL-
405 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEE COUNTY UNTIL 445 AM CST...

At 405 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of West Point to near Still Waters
Resort. Movement was southeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Opelika, Notasulga, Smiths, Smiths Station, Waverly, Beulah,
Beans Mill, Auburn University, Beauregard, Bleecker, Griffen Mill,
Ladonia, Loachapoka, Robert G. Pitts Airport, Monterey Heights,
Chewacla State Park, Roxana, Marvyn and Mount Jefferson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8506 3247 8506 3247 8533 3241 8533
      3241 8543 3250 8544 3250 8549 3257 8566
      3258 8566 3258 8570 3270 8570 3274 8557
      3273 8529 3275 8528 3275 8514 3274 8511
      3269 8512 3266 8509 3265 8511 3251 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 308DEG 57KT 3289 8504 3271 8573

32/Davis

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