Frost Advisory 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Sunday.

The combination of low temperatures and light winds will provide
conditions favorable for frost development tonight. With winds
around 3-4kts, widespread or heavy frost is not expected, and
sheltered areas and valleys will be most vulnerable. Given the
early growing season due to recent warm temperatures, decided to
issue a front advisory for counties across the north, valid through
7am Saturday morning.

A cold front is moving southward through the area today, with
surface high pressure spreading southward from central Canada into
much of the eastern CONUS. Tomorrow night, a trough within
northwesterly flow will drop into the Ohio River Valley. A weak
surface low will develop along or near the coast and shift
eastward along the now stalled cold front. Ahead of this system,
moisture will spread back northward across Central Alabama, with
light rainfall possible as early as Saturday afternoon, as
profiles begin to moisten. Expect widespread rainfall Saturday
night thru Sunday morning. As cold air spreads southward and
moisture is exiting the area early Sunday morning, there is a
brief period where low level profiles hover close to the 0C line
across the far northern extent of our forecast area, and a
rain/snow mix will be possible. Surface temps will be above
freezing, and impacts will be minimal with no accumulation.

14

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Thursday.

With a fairly deep trough in place across the Eastern US, and the
weak frontal boundary to our south, there will likely by
cyclogenesis of a deep low just off the coast of Georgia by
Monday morning. The exact placement of this low along the east
coast and the interactions with a system in the Ohio Valley, will
play a great input into the weather for the rest of the period and
will be something to watch as the system generates over the next
few days. While the overall solution with the extended models are
similar the problem lies with the finer details. First the Euro
and the GFS agree with both system generating and eventually
phasing into one system as it works into the northeast. Problem
lies with the evolution. The Euro keeps the coastal low as the
main player and creates a fairly strong coastal storm by
Wednesday. Meanwhile the GFS allows the Ohio Valley low to be the
dominate player before working off the northeast coast and
providing a good storm there. The Euro would keep us fairly dry
after Tuesday afternoon, where as the GFS would generate a
deformation zones that could stretch down as far as Montgomery by
Tuesday afternoon. With no real consensus will go middle road for
now and keep precip in through 00Z Wednesday and then dry it out
during the evening. Although if the GFS is correct we may need to
add in some snowflakes for the late Tuesday afternoon/night time
frame. Much more on this as it approaches. No matter what happens
with the precipitation Wednesday morning will be below freezing
and a freeze watch will likely be needed by Monday for much of the
area.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Surface cold front is roughly along the I-20 corridor along our
northern terminals. Expect VFR conditions with only concern being
breezy northerly winds through late afternoon. TOI/MGM will
experience lower CIG's through mid afternoon before the front
arrives then expect VFR conditions with breezy conditions. No
concerns overnight with VIS or CIG's with north winds and a dry
airmass contributing to VFR conditions. Clouds will increase
toward the end of the period but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail before lower CIG's and RA approach the terminals from the
west Saturday afternoon.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier conditions expected tonight and Saturday morning, before
rain returns ahead of the next second system. Widespread rainfall
is expected Saturday night and Sunday morning, with another system
Monday. There are no fire weather concerns as the pattern remains
a moist one.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     34  57  36  54  36 /   0  10  70  30   0
Anniston    37  60  39  55  39 /   0  10  70  40   0
Birmingham  37  59  40  56  40 /   0  10  70  30   0
Tuscaloosa  39  58  40  58  40 /   0  10  70  30   0
Calera      38  61  41  57  41 /   0  10  70  30   0
Auburn      40  65  45  55  42 /   0  10  60  60  10
Montgomery  41  69  46  60  43 /   0  10  60  50  10
Troy        43  70  47  57  42 /   0  10  60  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM CST Saturday for the following
counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne...
Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...Randolph...St.
Clair...Talladega...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
524 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-111430-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
524 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather expected through tonight

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The Spring Freeze program has begun. Temperatures will be close or
just below freezing briefly Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings
across the far northern row of counties. Higher confidence that most
of the area will be below freezing Wednesday morning and a Freeze
Watch may be necessary the closer we get.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not expected
at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW CAPITOL HILL GOLF 32.43N 86.41W
03/10/2017                   AUTAUGA            AL   PUBLIC

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE 1600 BLOCK OF
            HIGHWAY 31 NORTH. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0410 AM     LIGHTNING        3 NNW BOOTH             32.55N 86.60W
03/10/2017                   AUTAUGA            AL   PUBLIC

            STRUCTURE FIRE, BUILDING WAS A TOTAL LOSS.
            PROBABLE LIGHTNING STRIKE. REPORT RELAYED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0357 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE MARBURY           32.69N 86.42W
03/10/2017                   AUTAUGA            AL   PUBLIC

            TREES REPORTED DOWN. REPORT VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

NWS BIRMINGHAM AL
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE TALLADEGA         33.44N 86.07W
03/10/2017                   TALLADEGA          AL   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE REPORT AT TIMBER RIDGE GOLF COURSE
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. AT LEAST 8 TREES DOWN WITH
            SOME TOPS OF TREES TORN OFF. PUMP HOUSE
            DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             3 ESE BRINN             34.15N 87.74W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE PINE GROVE        33.32N 88.17W
03/10/2017                   PICKENS            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN
            ACROSS PICKENS COUNTY, INCLUDING TREES DOWN
            ALONG CR12 AND CR24. ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH
            WINDS.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E TALLADEGA           33.43N 86.06W
03/10/2017                   TALLADEGA          AL   PUBLIC

            2 TREES REPORTED DOWN, ONE IN A YARD AND THE
            OTHER ONTO A POWER LINE NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF CRESTVIEW ROAD AND MOUNT
            OLIVE CIRCLE. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JH