Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1204 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We're tracking a line of storms moving through Western Tennessee
this evening. This line will track southeastward and move through
the Central AL region through the overnight hours tonight. General
timing is expected to be after midnight for our northwestern
counties, reaching the Birmingham Metro around 2-4am.
The severe threat is expected to be confined to the northern half
of Central AL (mainly north of I-20 corridor). In this area, the
low level jet has increased the low-level shear values just enough
to support organized updrafts in the storms as the the front makes
its way through. Much of the instability remains elevated, which
will limit any tornado threat, but will support damaging winds and
hail.
South of the I-20 corridor, the shear is more unidirectional and
0-6km bulk shear does not support as organized of updrafts. The
question will be just how far south the better environment
stretches. For now, keeping the I-20 corridor as a rough
delineation, but it could extend a little south of that line. The
further south you go, elevated instability is still present, so
would expect some sub-severe thunderstorms still possible from
4am to 7am. By 7-8am, the front is expected to exit Central AL,
ending the rain/storm chances.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

All sites start off VFR, but there will be tsra and lower ceilings
moving into Central Alabama from northwest to southeast. I have
this activity moving near the northern sites by around 09z and
sticking around through around 12z. Ceilings should drop into the
neighborhood of 012 during this time. This convective activity is
well ahead of a cold front and winds will not swing around to the
north until around 17-18z.

The southern sites will see ceilings drop to MVFR around 10z.
Thunder is not as confident south, so have vcsh from 11-17z time
frame. This will have to be watched as the activity drops
southward overnight. Ceilings improve just after 18z as the front
moves by.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moistening will continue this afternoon into tonight with a line
of showers and storms expected to affect much of the area. A
second system will bring widespread rainfall to the area Saturday
night and Sunday morning. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  66  35  60  38 /  90  10   0  20  90
Anniston    57  69  38  63  39 /  90  20   0  20  90
Birmingham  62  68  38  61  38 /  90  20   0  30  90
Tuscaloosa  61  72  40  65  40 /  90  20   0  30  80
Calera      59  70  40  64  40 /  90  30   0  30  90
Auburn      56  73  42  66  46 /  40  40   0  10  90
Montgomery  59  77  44  70  46 /  30  40   0  20  90
Troy        60  77  44  71  50 /  30  50   0  10  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
731 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-110445-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
731 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across north central
Alabama, mainly near and north of a line from Aliceville to
Alabaster to Wedowee. Isolated storms are possible through midnight.
Then coverage increases midnight through 4 am north. A few of the
strongest storms may produce damaging winds up to 60 MPH and hail up
to the size of half dollars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The Spring Freeze program has begun. Temperatures will be close or
just below freezing briefly both Monday and Tuesday mornings across
the far northern row of counties. Higher confidence that most of the
area will be below freezing Wednesday morning and a Freeze Watch may
be necessary the closer we get.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     HAIL             WESTON                  34.16N 88.03W
03/09/2017  E1.25 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTER-SIZED REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC IN THE HAMILTON AREA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

NO

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
144 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

ALZ012-013-015-100900-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-Lamar AL-
144 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER...FAYETTE AND LAMAR
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CST...

At 144 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Smithville to 7 miles north of Smith Dam.
Movement was south at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Winfield, Fayette, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Carbon Hill,
Vernon, Sulligent, Millport, Berry, Parrish, Oakman, Glen Allen,
Kennedy, Sipsey, West Jefferson, Detroit, Kansas and Nauvoo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3405 8799 3402 8795 3392 8795
      3391 8764 3400 8764 3400 8717 3389 8709
      3389 8701 3384 8696 3380 8695 3366 8706
      3360 8719 3355 8719 3352 8725 3352 8732
      3359 8732 3361 8763 3352 8768 3354 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 341DEG 44KT 3407 8835 3404 8706

32/Davis