Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and trailing cold front will move off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight. High pressure builds over the area for the weekend,
then moves off the coast Monday. Another area of low pressure
crosses the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Warm front snaking its way across the fa attm with a weak wedge
hanging tuff across the nwrn zones. The dry slot continues to
advance ene with skies bcmg pt sunny as far east as the srn Ches
Bay. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front is still west of the
mts. Triple point low and trailing cold front progged to track
east across the region this evening then offshore by 06Z. Storms
developing along the border beginning to pulse a bit with these
being the main cells to watch over the next few hrs. Additional
storms developing along the advancing cold front.

The cold front crosses the area this evening then moves offshore
by 06Z with drier air quickly cutting off pcpn after fropa. Will
carry likely pops this evening then ramp down by 06Z with decreasing
cldns after midnight. Temps fall into the upr 40s - lwr 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes Saturday builds SE and over the
Mid Atlantic Sunday before moving off the coast Monday. Moisture
returns later Monday ahead of the next system approaching from the
west. Dry and mild through Monday morning. Highs Saturday from the
upr 50s-lwr 60s along the eastern shore to the upr 60s-mid 70s west
of the Bay. Lows 40-45. A bit cooler Sunday with highs in the 60s
except 55-60 at the beaches. Lows 45-50. Shwrs return late Monday
afternoon across the piedmont. Highs in the upr 50s-lwr 60s ern
shore, mid 60s-lwr 70s west of the bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure and an associated upper trough will track across the
area Monday night into Tuesday. Some timing questions exist with
respect to how soon the pcpn arrives late Monday and how quickly it
exits on Tuesday. The ECMWF solution is faster compared to the GFS
and would allow dry conditions Monday afternoon. Did not get too
specific with the timing just yet...keeping pops in thru the day.
However, would expect pcpn to end sooner given the progressive look
to this feature. Likely/categorical PoPs Monday night (70-80%), then
50-70% Tuesday (highest E/NE). After that, should see a period of
dry wx from late Tue thru Wed night. The next system is expected to
impact the region Thursday into next Friday. Have included chc pops
for now 30-40%. Warm Tues/Wed with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Cooler next Thu/Fri with highs dropping into the 50s to low 60s by
next Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main band of rain and embedded thunderstorms with associated IFR
was sliding off the coast at 18Z. Scattered thunderstorms were
developing farther inland and may still impact the TAF sites during
the afternoon. Low pressure over south central Virginia will move
northeast with a trailing cold front moving off the coast by
evening. High pressure begins to build over the Mid Atlantic States
Saturday morning with a clearing sky and VFR conditions. Gusty south
winds this afternoon will veer to southwest and later west during
the evening and overnight.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions prevail during the weekend as surface high
pressure settles over the region by Sunday. The high moves off the
coast Sunday night and Monday as low pressure becomes centered
over the lower Mississippi Valley. That low will impact the
weather Monday night and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms
with degraded aviation conditions likely. Improvement is
expected to improve for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA hazards have been maintained as is this afternoon. SCA ends for
the rivers at 7 pm...followed by the Sound/Bay at 10 pm.

Cold front slides offshore tonight with winds/waves/seas decreasing
behind the front. Will end SCA for the southern waters at 1 am...and
the northern waters have been extended until 10 am Sat for elevated
seas. SCA's not likely Sat despite weak N surge. May have some seas
up to 5 ft across the outer waters Sat night into Sunday. Will hold
off with any headlines for now given low confidence.

Marine conditions then improve Sunday night into Monday. Another
low pressure system affects the region late Mon/Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Another coastal flood statement may be needed for the Bay side of
the Lwr MD Eastern Shore for the high tide cycle Sat morning. This
would mainly be for Bishops Head where levels may again come close
to minor flood thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

VAZ082-084>086-089-090-523>525-010015-
Charles City-Mathews-Hampton/Poquoson-Surry-Middlesex-Newport
News-York-James City-Gloucester-
711 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT GLOUCESTER...
SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHEASTERN CHARLES CITY...YORK...
MATHEWS...JAMES CITY...AND NORTHEASTERN SURRY COUNTIES...THE NORTHERN
CITY OF POQUOSON...THE NORTHERN CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS AND THE CITY OF
WILLIAMSBURG...

At 711 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from near Norge to near Elberon. Movement was east at
45 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newport News, Williamsburg, Mathews, Gloucester Courthouse, Surry,
Queens Lake, Virginia Institute For Marine Sciences, Norge,
Deltaville, Gloucester Point, College Of William And Mary, Patrick
Henry Field, Seaford, Dendron, Busch Gardens, Hayes, Carver Gardens,
Tabb, Elberon and Kings Point.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3737 7620 3729 7624 3727 7629 3731 7634
      3724 7635 3721 7635 3715 7626 3708 7667
      3714 7667 3707 7670 3702 7697 3724 7691
      3726 7688 3728 7688 3729 7686 3730 7687
      3734 7687 3762 7624 3758 7626 3746 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 247DEG 38KT 3732 7679 3704 7689

ALB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
712 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             2 ENE GREENBRIER        36.79N 76.17W
03/31/2017  E1.75 INCH       CITY OF VIRGINIA BEVA   PUBLIC

            NEAR LAKE CHRISTOPHER.

&&

JO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
713 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

VAZ089-093-095-096-098-523>525-010015-
Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Surry-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Newport
News-Suffolk-York-Virginia Beach-
713 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ISLE OF WIGHT...
SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND EAST CENTRAL SURRY COUNTIES...THE CITY OF
POQUOSON...THE CITY OF NORFOLK...THE CITY OF PORTSMOUTH...THE
NORTHEASTERN CITY OF SUFFOLK...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF VIRGINIA
BEACH...THE CITY OF HAMPTON AND THE CENTRAL CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS...

At 713 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Surry to near
Suffolk. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Virginia Beach, Newport News, Hampton, Smithfield, Windsor, Langley
AFB, Ocean View, Virginia Wesleyan College, Hampton University, Old
Dominion University, Christopher Newport University, Downtown
Norfolk, Patrick Henry Field, Downtown Portsmouth, Churchland,
Norfolk State University, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk and Isle Of
Wight.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3686 7613 3680 7639 3681 7640 3685 7639
      3687 7642 3682 7645 3678 7646 3671 7675
      3708 7682 3714 7645 3714 7643 3715 7642
      3714 7641 3715 7641 3717 7630 3716 7627
      3709 7623 3700 7626 3697 7621 3695 7612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 224DEG 45KT 3707 7676 3674 7672

ALB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>