Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Front moving through the panhandle on Friday with
strong gusty winds and moderate amounts of precipitation.
Temperatures warmed up nicely with warm push ahead of the front.
Only a few areas cold enough for persistent snow. Hyder got about
6.5 inches through this morning. Haines and Klondike highways
(under a Winter Storm Warning this morning) was also receiving
snow...with warm air working its way north to the Haines customs
station this afternoon. Will be dropping the WSW for the Haines
Road this afternoon. The Klondike still continuing to snow with
near blizzard conditions tonight. Local areas with rain snow mix
Friday into Friday evening will likely see it stay more rain as a
slow warm up continues into Saturday afternoon.

Only needed to make small changes to the forecast package. Today,
with High res solution the preferred pick.

.LONG TERM...Southeast Alaska will experience somewhat of a lull
Saturday night. Winds begin diminishing as ridging takes hold, and
rain shower activity (and snow shower activity in the higher
elevations) begins to decrease in intensity. However, late Sunday,
a storm force low lifts northeast into the central gulf. Winds
have been raised across the eastern gulf and the southern/central
Panhandle with gales spreading northward. We are also slightly
concerned about a high wind event along the eastern and southeast
gulf coast late Sunday with this front. Rain could be heavy at
times with this system, and it is possible that higher elevations
may experience impactful accumulating snows, including White Pass.
Confidence in a big snow event for the Haines Highway late Sunday
into early next week is not high, given the potential for
temperatures in the low to middle 30s as happened today.

At this point, we have some cooling in the forecast with onshore
flow through next week. There is some disparity in guidance early
next week, and we have some doubt that temperatures will be cool
enough to support snow, but confidence is not high enough to erase
it altogether as the GFS clings to the colder air early next week.
The timing of fronts and short-waves continues to prove tedious
and impossible into next week. There may be slight warming mid-
week, and we have rain sneaking back into the forecast for much
of the central Panhandle. Confidence has increased in a cooling
trend going into the weekend, and thus the snow line will migrate
south. While we have snow likely in the forecast, this may need to
be scaled back to chance as we progress through the week. The
storm track may dip south, leaving the Panhandle on the edge of
sensible weather.

European and NAM were used for updates Saturday night into Sunday
night. Beyond, confidence was too low to change. Likely though
with such an active pattern, there will be windy periods and any
snow that falls in general will be wet. The rain/snow line will be
a dicey one to work with next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Lots of reports of low level winds shear through the
panhandle and associated turbulence near the terrain. Low level
winds in the marines and gusts over land areas to 30 to 40 kt.
Expect these conditions to continue but improve towards morning.
The winds on the back side of the front are letting up over the
gulf and panhandle areas until afternoon.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ019-020-026-028.
     Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-035-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-034-052-053.
&&

Bezenek/JWA

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