Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
431 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this morning showing developing
low tracking into the western AK gulf with associated gale force
front moving into the eastern gulf. The low center will move
northeast towards Prince William Sound through the night as the
front crosses over the panhandle.

Winds over the gulf have steadily increased overnight and will
reach gale force by this morning and early afternoon. As the front
moves inland secondary wrap will bring in another round of gales
aimed toward the central panhandle coast before diminishing. Inner
channel southerly winds also showed steady rises overnight and
will pick up to gale force today and last into tonight. Strong
wind gusts for the much of the coastal, central and southern
panhandle with the front and secondary wrap. Far northern
panhandle strong winds this morning mainly from resulting pressure
gradient.

Categorical precipitation for the entire panhandle. With
southerly flow temperatures for most areas have risen into the mid
to upper 30s and will continue to slowly rise into the upper 30s
to low 40s through the overnight hours. As a result precip for
these locations will fall as rain, and at times will be heavy due
to long fetch of moisture associated with the front. Some mix of
snow early this morning as sea level but no accumulation
expected. The exceptions are the Haines and Klondike highways and
Hyder where cold air has not been pushed out by the southerly
winds, yet. Significant snow fall with amounts upwards of a foot
or more through early Saturday morning from this system for these
locations.

Blended in some Hi Res NAM to refresh inherited grids. This
bumped up inner channel winds just enough for gales. Kept with
same QPF and snow amounts at higher elevations but dropped snow
from some spots, such as Haines, where the south flow increased
temps bit sooner. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...The significant weather features for this update are
the persistent onshore flow aloft and a strong front coming up to
the coast on Sunday. The gales on Sunday - particularly on Sunday
afternoon and evening - are supported by a negatively tilted trof
aloft and a 963 MB storm center near 53N 145W around 16/03Z Sunday
evening. Wind was increased due to the strength of the front and
the sea state was refreshed. Other aspects of this forecast
remain unchanged. Surface wind on Monday will depend on the best
track of the aforementioned low. It was an easy call to keep
forecasts wet but mixing in some snow with a little cooling later
in the week. Flow aloft gets weaker on Wednesday as per all the
ops models and is a bit more southerly but with continued
moisture. Confidence moderate in this set of forecasts.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-053.
&&

PRB/JC

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