Gale Warning 25, NWS Juneau, AK

763 
FZAK51 PAJK 150027
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-151600-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-151600-
GLACIER BAY-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-151600-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-151600-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-151600-
ICY STRAIT-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-151600-
CROSS SOUND-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-151600-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-151600-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-151600-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT...
EXCEPT 18 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 19 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-151600-
FREDERICK SOUND-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-151600-
SUMNER STRAIT-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-151600-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
327 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Front moving through the panhandle on Friday with
strong gusty winds and moderate amounts of precipitation.
Temperatures warmed up nicely with warm push ahead of the front.
Only a few areas cold enough for persistent snow. Hyder got about
6.5 inches through this morning. Haines and Klondike highways
(under a Winter Storm Warning this morning) was also receiving
snow...with warm air working its way north to the Haines customs
station this afternoon. Will be dropping the WSW for the Haines
Road this afternoon. The Klondike still continuing to snow with
near blizzard conditions tonight. Local areas with rain snow mix
Friday into Friday evening will likely see it stay more rain as a
slow warm up continues into Saturday afternoon.

Only needed to make small changes to the forecast package. Today,
with High res solution the preferred pick.

.LONG TERM...Southeast Alaska will experience somewhat of a lull
Saturday night. Winds begin diminishing as ridging takes hold, and
rain shower activity (and snow shower activity in the higher
elevations) begins to decrease in intensity. However, late Sunday,
a storm force low lifts northeast into the central gulf. Winds
have been raised across the eastern gulf and the southern/central
Panhandle with gales spreading northward. We are also slightly
concerned about a high wind event along the eastern and southeast
gulf coast late Sunday with this front. Rain could be heavy at
times with this system, and it is possible that higher elevations
may experience impactful accumulating snows, including White Pass.
Confidence in a big snow event for the Haines Highway late Sunday
into early next week is not high, given the potential for
temperatures in the low to middle 30s as happened today.

At this point, we have some cooling in the forecast with onshore
flow through next week. There is some disparity in guidance early
next week, and we have some doubt that temperatures will be cool
enough to support snow, but confidence is not high enough to erase
it altogether as the GFS clings to the colder air early next week.
The timing of fronts and short-waves continues to prove tedious
and impossible into next week. There may be slight warming mid-
week, and we have rain sneaking back into the forecast for much
of the central Panhandle. Confidence has increased in a cooling
trend going into the weekend, and thus the snow line will migrate
south. While we have snow likely in the forecast, this may need to
be scaled back to chance as we progress through the week. The
storm track may dip south, leaving the Panhandle on the edge of
sensible weather.

European and NAM were used for updates Saturday night into Sunday
night. Beyond, confidence was too low to change. Likely though
with such an active pattern, there will be windy periods and any
snow that falls in general will be wet. The rain/snow line will be
a dicey one to work with next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Lots of reports of low level winds shear through the
panhandle and associated turbulence near the terrain. Low level
winds in the marines and gusts over land areas to 30 to 40 kt.
Expect these conditions to continue but improve towards morning.
The winds on the back side of the front are letting up over the
gulf and panhandle areas until afternoon.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ019-020-026-028.
     Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-035-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-034-052-053.
&&

Bezenek/JWA

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