Storm Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

401 
FZAK52 PAFG 201408
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-210300-
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 986 mb low in the Western Bering Sea will move to 150 nm W of 
St Lawrence Island this afternoon, then N across the Chukchi Sea 
tonight as it weakens to 987 mb. A 1026 mb high will build over
South Central Alaska today with a 1037 mb.

$$

PKZ200-210300-
Norton Sound-
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-210300-
Dall Point to Wales-
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-210300-
Kotzebue Sound-
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-210300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
508 AM AKST Wed Dec 20 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding 
to 5 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing 
spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow and freezing fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
235 PM AKST Tue Dec 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main forecast highlight will be a series of strong storms for the
west coast through the week. The next round is expected to hit
Wednesday into Thursday. Southwestly flow over the mainland will
bring heavy snow to the western interior and central interior
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The interior is now seeing
snow move over the area from the first front that hit the west
coast yesterday. Continuity is showing the GFS and NAM are in
better agreement with the winds so we leaned more towards the GFS
for the afternoon forecast package. The west coast will see the
brunt of these storms from now through Saturday.

Surface...A 965 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr will move over
the Bering Strait Coast tonight and then over the Chukchi Sea as
a 980 mb low Wed morning. A 980 mb low will move N over the
southern Bering Sea and be 100 NM W of St. Lawrence Island Wed
afternoon as a 976 mb low. Then track over the Chukchi sea as
a 981 mb low 12z on Thursday. Another strong low will move
in the southern Bering Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will build over the interior Thursday and Friday.

Western Interior and West Coast...A 965 mb low near the Gulf of
Anadyr and front over the Western Interior will continue to move
northwest while the low moves northwest over the Bering Strait
and Chukchi Sea through Wednesday morning. Strong southwest flow
continues to pump moisture towards the southern slopes Brooks
Range (zones 208 and 217), where 12 to 24 inches of snow
accumulation is expected through Thursday morning.

For Saint Lawrence Island and Bering Strait, the next 24 to 36
hours will be a bit tricky as there are multiple hazards to
contend with. The AKGFS22 and AKNAM12 are both indicating that a
75 to 85 kt low level jet will move over Saint Lawrence Island
Wednesday afternoon and then the Bering Strait Coast by the
evening. This low level jet will weaken some as in moves north
over the Chukchi Sea, but will still be around 65 to 70 kts. For
Saint Lawrence Island, particularly Savoonga, this will be similar
to the strong wind event where strong downslope winds caused
damage to buildings and structures. Near blizzard conditions are
also very likely in this scenario with warning level accumulating
snow. For the next round have reissued winter storm warnings for
zones 214 212 211 and 210 209 and 207 for blizzard conditions and
the high wind potential. The strongest southerly winds will be
from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning for these zones.

Eastern and Central Interior...Snow is already filling in on the
Pedro Dome radar this afternoon Over the Central Interior and
Middle Tanana Valley, 3 to 5 inches are expected through
Wednesday morning. Snow will taper off by Wednesday afternoon. Gap
winds in Alaska Range passes increased overnight with gusts
between 50 to 60 mph being reported. Winter weather advisories
still look good for the Alaska range. Also extended them out to
midnight tonight. Winds should be decreasing this evening. Will
see another round of stronger gap winds in the Alaska Range
Thursday morning and persist into Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Visibilities have improved for
the time being over the north slope as winds have diminished
slightly. Have cancelled the blizzard warnings for the north
slope. Gusty gap winds through Brooks Range passes have resulted
in low visibility in blowing snow and snow where winter weather
advisories are in effect. There will be a slight lull in the winds
this evening but will pick up again as south to southwest winds
will increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday where near
blizzard conditions may be possible along the western Arctic
Coast. Have extended winter weather advisories for zones 205 and
206.

Coastal Hazard Potential Short Term... A series of strong storms
moving north across the Bering and Chukchi Sea this week will
result in elevated water levels for much of western Alaska. Due to
the existing sea ice cover, there is uncertainty whether the
storms will create a significant amount of storm surge to impact
coastal communities. Shore fast ice will prevent or limit wave
runup and erosion in many locations except on Saint Lawrence
Island. There is the potential for water to cover ice, ice to push
up on south and southwest facing beaches, and minor flooding in
low lying areas. So we have issued coastal flood advisories for
zones 211 and zone 213 from 3 pm Wednesday to 9 AM Thursday.

LOCATION...From Golovin west including Nome.

COASTAL FLOODING...Storm surge and tides will combine to raise
sea levels 5 to 8 feet above the normal high tide line.

TIMING...South winds will increase to 35 to 45 mph Wednesday
afternoon and gradually diminish Thursday morning. Highest water
levels are expected Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

IMPACTS...In Nome, minor flooding is expected in the Belmont
subdivision and along West Beach. In Golovin, the old runway and
other low lying areas will become inundated. Shore fast ice will
prevent or limit wave runup in some locations. It is likely water
will cover existing ice and ice will be lifted or pushed up on
south and southwest facing beaches.

LOCATION...Gambell and the Bering Strait Coast.

COASTAL FLOODING...Storm surge and tides will combine to raise
sea levels 3 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line. Expect
additional wave runup in Gambell and along ice free coastlines.

TIMING...South winds will increase to 40 to 65 mph Wednesday
afternoon and gradually diminish Thursday morning. Highest water
levels are expected late Wednesday afternoon through early
Thursday morning.

IMPACTS...In Gambell, storm surge combined with wave runup may
wash water over the runway and cause minor flooding at the dump.
Along the Bering Strait Coast, low lying areas will likely become
inundated. Shore fast ice will prevent or limit wave runup in some
locations. It is likely water will cover existing sea ice and ice
will push up on south and southwest facing beaches.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Wind Advisory for AKZ225.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JK DEC 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1128 AM AKST Tue Dec 19 2017

AKZ207-209-212-214-202100-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua,
and Pitkas Point
1128 AM AKST Tue Dec 19 2017

...High Water Likely Along the West Coast Wednesday and
Thursday...

A series of strong storms moving north across the Bering and
Chukchi Sea will result in elevated water levels for much of
western Alaska. The highest water levels are expected Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Due to the existing sea ice cover,
there is uncertainty whether the storms will create a significant
amount of storm surge to impact coastal communities. Shore fast
ice will prevent or limit wave runup and erosion in many locations
except on Saint Lawrence Island and portions of the southern
Seward Peninsula from Golovin west. There is the potential for
water to cover ice, ice to push up on south and southwest facing
beaches, and minor flooding in low lying areas. Much of the sea
ice in this region will weaken, and possibly deteriorate in some
locations due to the prolonged period of strong southerly winds
and mild temperatures.

Residents on the Bering and Chukchi Sea coasts should be prepared
for repeated hazardous weather this week and monitor the National
Weather Service for the latest forecasts and warnings at
www.weather.gov/Fairbanks.