Small Craft Advisory 151, NWS Fairbanks, AK

998 
FZAK51 PAFG 112302
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121445-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1020 mb low over the eastern Beaufort Sea will dissipate
tonight. A strong 953 mb low currently 550 NM W of St Matthew 
Island will move north to Cape Navarin as 957 mb low Thursday 
afternoon. By Friday afternoon the low will move north to Anadyr 
and weaken to 975 mb. Thereafter, this low will weaken near the 
Gulf of Anadyr. A front associated with this low move northward 
across the Chukchi Sea Thursday through Friday morning.

$$

PKZ225-121445-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-121445-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building
to 6 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-121445-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing 
fog. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-121445-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt increasing 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-121445-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
302 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

999 
FZAK51 PAFG 121220
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130215-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong 959 mb low 400 NM WNW of St. Matthew Island will move 
into the Gulf of Anadyr at 966 mb by late this evening and will 
move westward into Russia during the day on Friday. A front 
associated with this low move north and east across the Arctic
through Friday.

$$

PKZ225-130215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-130215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, snow.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-130215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-130215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-130215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A very active pattern is expected to continue
across Northern Alaska over the next few days. The main forecast
concern will be the potential for minor coastal flooding and
possible high surf on the west coast Thursday and Friday. There
are also ongoing coastal flood warnings/high surf advisories for
the west coast as well as a few remaining winter weather
advisories for Interior and Northwest Alaska. The 10/12Z
deterministic model suite is in good agreement through late
Friday.

Aloft...At 500 mb, A ridge of high pressure over the extending
from the Bering Sea norther over the Chukchi Sea will quickly
shift east into the west coast by Wednesday afternoon, and then
push east over Interior Alaska Wednesday night through late
Thursday night. A 526 dam low 375 nm west of Attu Island will
quickly deepen into a 500 dam low 500 nm west of St Matthew Island
by Wednesday evening. This low will move northeast towards the
Gulf of Anadyr remaining near 503 dam and will be over the Gulf of
Anadyr at 507 dam by late Thursday night.

Surface...A strong low will move northward in the western Bering
Sea Wednesday and Thursday. This low will around 330 NM west of
St. Matthew Island by Thursday morning at 957 mb and will move
into the Gulf of Anadyr by Thursday evening at 969 mb. This low
will then push westward into Russia. A weather front associated
with this low will move northward across the west coast of Alaska
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Another low will move eastward
just north of the Aleutians on Friday and into Bristol Bay Friday
night.

West Coast and Western Interior...The latest coastal flood/high
surf event is winding down for parts of the west coast south of
the Bering Strait with high surf still ongoing for the Chukchi Sea
and Kotzebue Sound through tonight as the low remains over the
Chukchi Sea. Inland over the Northwest, a winter weather advisory
for snow for the lower Kobuk and Noatak Valley is ongoing, where
another couple of snow accumulation is expected today. A strong
low will move northward into the western Bering Sea by late
Wednesday. A front associated with this low will rotate north and
bring strong southeasterly winds to the west coast south of the
Bering Strait Wednesday afternoon and evening, and to the north
over the Chukchi Sea Wednesday evening and night. There will be a
lull in the winds late Wednesday night before winds switch to the
south to southwest and increase through the day Thursday and
overnight Thursday night. Strong southwesterly flow over a long
fetch will bring another round of coastal flooding concerns
starting Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday. The 10/12Z
guidance indicates that the storm surge will be higher and more
significant. Up to 6 feet of storm surge is expected from the
Bering Strait coast to Nome, with up to 7 feet east of Nome to
Golovin, and up to 8 feet from Elim south along the Norton Sound
Coast to Unalakleet. Along the Yukon Delta Coast, current guidance
indicates up to 6 feet. This will likely cause minor flooding at
locations along the coast. Decided to issue Coastal Flood Watches
for zones 211 through 214 Thursday afternoon/evening through
Friday.

Eastern and Central Interior...Winter weather advisories for the
hills north of Fairbanks above 2000 feet including the Steese and
Elliott Highways are ongoing through 6 pm this evening. The latest
rain/snow event is starting to wind down. The back of the
precipitation as shown by the Pedro Dome radar is showing a back
edge to the heaviest rain and snow and is now mostly east of
Fairbanks as of 2 pm. This downward trend in precipitation
coverage will continue into the evening east of Fairbanks. Behind
this main area of precipitation, will see a few rain or snow
showers overnight tonight and Wednesday. Many locations in the
Middle Tanana Valley observed rainfall totals between 1 to 1.5
inches, with 2 to 7 inches of snowfall (highest in the hills)
observed before precipitation transitioned to rain. Strong winds
will develop through Alaska Range passes Thursday morning with the
strongest winds expected along the Richardson Highway and Isabel
Pass. Models are advertising another round of precipitation
Thursday night into Friday. At this time it looks like a cold rain
for valley locations below 2000 feet and snow above that.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Not much in the way of
precipitation other than flurries. East winds will develop and
increase along the Arctic Coast Wednesday night from Barrow west
and then spread east towards Barter Island Thursday. The strongest
winds will remain 200 nm north of the western Arctic Coast, but
may see winds 30 to 40 mph. A round of precipitation will move
along the western Arctic Coast Thursday and then shift east to
over Barrow Friday morning and east of Barrow Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High surf advisories for
the Chukchi Sea Coast and Kotzebue Sound are ongoing through
Wednesday morning. Another round of coastal flooding is expected
Thursday and Friday as another strong storm moves out into the
western Bering Sea. The latest storm surge guidance has up to 6
feet west of Nome, up to 7 feet between Nome and Golovin, and up
to 8 feet between Elim to Unalakleet on the Norton Sound Coast. Up
to 6 feet of storm surge is expected for the Yukon Delta Coast.
Coastal flood watches were issued for Thursday afternoon/evening
and Friday for the areas mentioned.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ222.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

LTH OCT 17