Gale Warning 104, NWS Fairbanks, AK

999 
FZAK51 PAFG 121220
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130215-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong 959 mb low 400 NM WNW of St. Matthew Island will move 
into the Gulf of Anadyr at 966 mb by late this evening and will 
move westward into Russia during the day on Friday. A front 
associated with this low move north and east across the Arctic
through Friday.

$$

PKZ225-130215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-130215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, snow.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-130215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-130215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-130215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

777 
FZAK51 PAFG 122241
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131400-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 960 mb 300 nm W of St Matthew Island will move into the Gulf of
Anadyr and weaken through the weekend. A 1039 mb high 800 nm N of
Point Barrow with ridging extending SE across the Arctic to Banks
Island will drift W while the ridge slides W to lie from 80N 180
to MacKenzie Bay by Sat morning, and by Sun morning will lie from
76N 180 to Point Barrow, then E over the near shore waters. A 996
mb low will move from high in the Canadian Archipelago to the
Beaufort Sea by Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ225-131400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-131400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog and fog.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-131400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing 
fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-131400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft. Freezing
fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing 
fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-131400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing 
fog. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 17

198 
FZAK51 PAFG 131219
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140230-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 970 mb low currently sits in the Gulf of Anadyr.
This low will move westward into Russia today slowly weakening. A
front associated with this low stretches from the low to north of
Wrangel Island to Barrow. A ridge of high pressure extending from
near 80 N to Banks Island will slide west to sit over Beaufort Sea
Coast of Alaska by Saturday Afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-140230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-140230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-140230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-140230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-140230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
419 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A long wave ridge is building tonight over mainland Alaska as a
high amplitude trough over the Western Bering Sea and northwest
Pacific moves slowly east. The trough will expand to cover the
Bering Sea Thu and then expand over mainland AK Fri and Sat as a
short wave moves over mainland AK from the west and another drops
over mainland AK from the NE. This long wave will then deepen from
the weekend into next week causing winter to finally descend over
northern Alaska.

A short wave trough from Deadhorse to Northway will move east of
the Alcan Border about midnight. Snow showers along and east of
the trough will taper off along the trough with break in the
clouds to the west. Expect less than 1 inch of snow with this.

Surface...
A 1025 mb high north of the Arctic Coast will persist through
Fri. This is causing stratus and fog along the arctic coast that
will persist through Fri. This will also cause east winds to
increase Thu and Fri as low pressure approaches from the south.

An Arctic Front that stretches from Northway to Arctic Village to
Point Lay will move to Northway to Denali to Point Lay by 4am Thu,
to Northway to Anaktuvuk pass to POint Lay by 4pm Thu, then to
Eagle to Arctic Village to Wainwright by 4am Fri. Precip will be
mostly snow along and north of this front, and mostly rain south
of this front (below 2000 feet).

A 952 mb low in the western Bering Sea will has an occluded front
from the low to south of Cape Navarin to Adak. By 4am Thu it will
be a 949 mb low 200 nm south of Cape Navarin with the front from
the low to the Bering Strait to Cape Romanzof. By 4pm Thu it will
be a 957 mb low near Cape Navarin with a from the low to just
south of Wrangel Island to Point Hope to Anvik. By 4am Fri it will
be a 968 mb low near Anadyr with the front from the low to north
of Wrangel Island to POint Lay to Denali. By 4pm Fri it will be a
975 mb low 80 nm north of Anadyr with the front from North of
Wrangel Is to Umiat to Arctic Village to Northway. After that the
low will weaken in place while the front will stretch east and
weaken.

This is a wet and warm system that will spread rain inland 100-200
miles ahead of of the front and change to showers west of the
front. Expect 0.75 to 1.5 inches of liquid with this front over
the west coast and western Interior tonight through Thu night. In
the Central Interior could see .25 to .50 inch liquid with lesser
amounts tot he east. Could see snow mix with rain at outset of
precipitation, but expect mainly rain in valleys. Above 2000 feet
could see 3-5 inches of snow which will affect the Dalton,
Elliott and Steese Highways Thu night and Fri, as well as the
Parks and Richardson highways in the Alaska Range. Will issue SPS
for that.

Main concern with this low is the wind. Southeast gales of 40-50kt
will occur over the Bering Sea, southern Chukchi Sea and West
Coast tonight just ahead of the front. Winds will turn south 30-40
kt Thu, then will see south-southwest winds 40g60 kt in the
poison tail portion of the front which will lie in the SE quadrant
of the low Thu just south of St Lawrence Is, by Thu night from
the Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta, and by Fri from Point Hope
to Kotzebue. Winds gusting to 60kt occurred today in the poison
tail portion as it moved over Shemya. These strong south to
southwest winds Thu night and Fri are what will cause the highest
water levels most areas. Have upgraded to Coastal Flood watches
zones 213 211 212 and 214, and issued high surf for zones 207 and
209. Will likely see elevated surf in all these areas from late
tonight into Thu with the strong SE winds accompanying the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deterministic models initialize about 7 mb too weak on sea level
pressure of the strong low in the western Bering Sea, but models
indicate rapid deepening today which should lead to closer to the
correct pressure by tonight. Otherwise models show similar
solutions through 4pm Fri. Will address sea level pressure
difference by adding 5 kt of wind to the area near the low
through tonight especially in the poison tail section of the low,
then 3 kt after that time as expect models SLP and wind speeds to
be closer to what they should be. After 4pm Fri models start to
see differences on timing and strength of short waves Fri night
and Sat. At this time, will use GFS for Fri night and Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Water levels will still be
high with hi surf along the west Coast on Fri. Water levels should
receed Sat as winds decrease. No issues for Sun.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210.

High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB OCT 17