Gale Warning 70, NWS Fairbanks, AK

243 
FZAK51 PAFG 052255
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061715-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Weak high pressure over the central Arctic will slide E as a 
weather front moves N over the Chukchi Sea and western Arctic. A
995 mb low will move to Wrangel Island by Thu morning, then into 
the west central Arctic by Thu evening. A weather front associated
with this low will drag over the northwest Arctic Coast into Fri 
before being pushed offshore by building high pressure over 
mainland Alaska.

$$

PKZ225-061715-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-061715-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-061715-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Fog, rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-061715-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-061715-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

LTH Jul 17

788 
FZAK51 PAFG 061229
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-070215-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 mb low near Banks Island will move north and
east today. A weather front associated with this low will drag 
over the northwest Arctic Coast into Fri before being pushed 
offshore by building high pressure. A 1019 mb high near Mackenzie 
Bay will slowly move to the east today.

$$

PKZ225-070215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-070215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-070215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-070215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-070215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
429 AM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Jul 17

986 
FZAK51 PAFG 062241
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-071430-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
The 990 mb low northwest of Wrangel Island will strengthen a
bit as it moves northeast to be 500 nm north of Wainwright
Friday afternoon. The weather front associated with this low
lies from Wainwright to Kivalina. The front will move through
Barrow this evening, but will weaken rapidly as it continues
east.

$$

PKZ225-071430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-071430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt early this evening diminishing
to 25 kt by midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-071430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-071430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming SW.
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-071430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
241 PM AKDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

DJH Jul 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Nam continues to be much too aggressive with the
convection, while the GFS initialed well and seems to be handling
it much better the last few days, so once again will lean toward
the GFS for convection today. Models again are in pretty good
agreement, and they initialized well against the 05/06Z surface
analysis. Once again there are some differences with the waves as
they move across the Arctic, but they are more similar today than
yesterday. All the model solution also seem to have a handle on
the ridging over interior Alaska and similar solutions handling it.
Beyond 100 hours or so they seem to be handling the ridging, but
are having some difficulty with the active areas around it.
Looking way out, the RMOP is showing our seasonal switch to
westerly flow is just about right on schedule for the middle of
the month when convection starts to wane, and more of a rainy
pattern takes over.

Aloft...At 500 HPA...Ridging over the southern half of the mainland
with a 573 dam center over Denali has an axis extending north over
the Western Interior and east over Dawson YT. The ridge will
continue to flatten out in a west to east orientation and the
north axis will move east over Barrow this evening and over the
Beaufort Sea by Thursday evening. A shortwave over the northeast
corner of the state will exit east this morning. A 550 dam low in
the northeast Pacific continues to wobble around about 600 nm
south of Prince William Sound through Friday, then moves over the
southeast panhandle by Sunday morning. A 544 dam low over Siberia
will move northeast over the Chukchi Sea by Thursday morning, then
weaken and dissipate over the central Arctic Thursday evening. The
associated shortwave will move northeast over the Northwest Coast
tonight, moving over Barrow Thursday evening as it continues into
the Arctic. A 556 dam low over the southwest Bering Sea will move
northeast to St Matthew Island by Thursday evening as it weakens,
eventually dissipating as it move north over the Chukchi Sea
Friday night. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming 2 to 4 degrees
through Friday, then a couple degrees more on the weekend.

Surface...Thermal trough over the northeast corner of the state
this morning will remain stationary into Thursday, then start
moving south. Ridge of high pressure south of the Alaska Range
with a 1023 mb center in the central Gulf of Alaska and a 1021 mb
center over the southwest mainland near Sleetmute. Trough of low
pressure over the northeast interior with a 1014 mb low near
Arctic Village that will remain stationary today and dissipate
Thursday morning. A 995 mb low will move north to be over Wrangel
Island by Thursday morning, then continues to 80N 170W by Friday
morning at 985 mb. A weather front will move to the Bering Strait
this evening, and moves northeast into the Arctic slowly dragging
over the western Arctic Coast through Friday afternoon before
being pushed offshore as high pressure builds over the mainland.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern into next week. As
ridging over the interior continues to break down southwesterly,
then westerly flow will develop over the Chukchi Sea and Arctic
Coast allowing several weather fronts to move northeast and east
across the area. This will bring periods of rain, mainly west of
Nuiqsut. Rainfall amounts will not be significant, but there will
be around half an inch of rain from Barrow west through Saturday
morning with much lower amounts to the east and southeast. With
the exception of south winds around Cape Lisburne of 25 to 40 mph
gusting to 55 mph through Friday morning, winds will be in the 10
to 25 mph range as they swing from southeast to southwest.
Warmer the next couple days with the south flow, and that will
push high temperatures in coastal locations to around 60, and
near 80 in the plains and areas in the Brooks Range as a weak
Chinook sets up Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly cloudy to cloudy over
the coastal areas. Rain or showers spreading to St Lawrence Island
and the Chukchi Sea Coast early this morning, and into the Bering
Strait and Seward Peninsula later this morning. Heaviest rainfall
will be over the Chukchi Sea coast through Saturday morning as a
series of weather fronts moves through the area. Still looks like
0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain will fall south of Point Hope and
north of Kotzebue over the Noatak Basin. Over the remainder of the
coastal areas and St Lawrence Island rainfall will be in the on
0.33 to 0.75 range through Saturday morning. The flow is front the
south so Western interior areas south of Ambler will be spared,
with only light rainfall expected in the upper Kobuk Basin. Winds
along the coast southwest to southeast 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30
mph, except on the Capes and St Lawrence Island 25 to 40 mph with
some gusts near 50 mph this afternoon around Wales. Inland winds
will generally be less than 10 mph. Temperatures steady or
slightly warming on the coast, and warming in the upper 70s to
around 80 in inland areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Thunderstorm activity will be
greatly curtailed today and be generally south of a line from
Eagle to Delta Junction to Healy. Convective indicies are weaker
than they were yesterday, but still expect some small hail, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds with thunderstorms. A rogue shower may
develop north of that line, but like yesterday they will be
short lived as dynamics are not in their favor. Thunderstorms
and showers will be in a similar area Thursday. A little more sun
today and some warm advection will produce slightly warmer
temperatures south of the Yukon River pushing some areas up to
around 80 this afternoon. Warming will continue tomorrow and
Friday with highs in the lower 80s after overnight lows around 60.
Temperatures slightly cooler north of the Yukon River. Winds will
be less than 10 mph for most interior locations.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Persistent southeast flow
will bring increased wave action to some of the outer coastal
areas and St Lawrence Island with nearshore wave heights to 4 to 7
feet, but no significant erosion is expected.

&&

.Fire Weather...Thunderstorm activity will be greatly curtailed
today and will generally be south of a line from Eagle to Delta
Junction to Healy. Convective indicies are weaker than they were
yesterday, but still expect some small hail, heavy downpours, and
gusty winds with thunderstorms. A rogue shower may develop north
of that line, but like yesterday they will be short lived as
dynamics are not in their favor. Thunderstorms and showers will be
in a similar area Thursday. Minimum Relative humidity values
trending down the next couple days with values falling to around
25 to 30 percent in the upper Yukon Flats today and around 25
percent on Thursday. The remainder of the area will be around 35
percent today and 30 percent on Thursday, except out west of
Nenana where they be around 35 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Special Weather Statement for Fortymile Basins will
be continued as some of the rivers are indicating bankfull
conditions. Expect them to slowly fall over the next couple days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

&&

SDB JUL 17