Brisk Wind Advisory 183, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated Fire Weather Section for Red Flag warnings tomorrow.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall along the west
coast, dry and warmer conditions over the Interior, and some
convection over the southeast highlight the forecast period.
05/12Z deterministic model suite are in good agreement through
Friday with spread in model solutions in regards with the the low
in the Bering and the synoptic set up over the Arctic. Models are
similar with handling the upper level ridge over the Interior
beyond Friday.

Aloft...An east to west 574 dam upper level ridge over the
southern half mainland Alaska extending southeast towards
Whitehorse, YT and south into the Pacific Northwest will remain in
place through Saturday before being pushed north and over the
northern half of the mainland by early next week. A 550 dam low
over the northeastern Pacific will move north into the Gulf of
Alaska by Saturday and then will rotate east into the Southeast
and will set up easterly flow over the southern Interior Monday
and Tuesday. Meanwhile over the Arctic,a 544 dam low over eastern
Siberia will move out over the Chukchi Sea Thursday morning and
then along the western Arctic Coast through Thursday evening, and
finally will move north of Barrow by late Thursday evening. A 556
dam low 230 NM east of Attu Island will move east over the Bering
Sea reaching Nunivak Island by Friday morning. A 542 dam low
southeast of Kamchatka Peninsula this morning will move east and
be over the Rat Islands by Saturday morning.

Surface...A 1018 mb thermal low over Arctic Village and associated
thermal trough over the Northeast will persist through Thursday
morning. The thermal trough will shift south with a thermal low
developing over the Yukon Flats Friday afternoon that will shift
south through Saturday. A 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered
over the northern Gulf of Alaska and extending north over the
southern half of the mainland will build north over mainland
Alaska and east over the southeast panhandle. A 995 mb low will move
north to be over Wrangel Island by Thursday morning, then
continues to 80N 165W by Friday morning at 985 mb. A weather
front will move to the Bering Strait this evening, and moves
northeast into the Arctic slowly dragging over the western Arctic
Coast through Friday afternoon before being pushed offshore. A 991
mb low will develop near Shemya Friday morning and will proceed
slowly east while an associated weather front rotates north over
the Bering Sea.

West Coast and Western Interior...A band of rain oriented north to
south over the central Bering Sea and St Lawrence Island will move
east over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea tonight and then over
the western Seward Peninsula, Chukchi Sea coast, and Kotzebue
Sound Thursday. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be over the
northern Chukchi Sea coast and Bering Strait coast where between
0.5" to 0.75" is forecast through Friday afternoon. Other
locations over the Seward Peninsula, Kotzebue Sound, and St
Lawrence Island will see up to 0.5". The western Interior will
miss out and remain dry with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Strong southerly winds will persist over St Lawrence
Island, Bering Strait, Point Hope, and Cape Lisburne. Sustained
winds will be between 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph and
will weaken Thursday afternoon.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active southwesterly flow over
the western North Slope will persist through Friday afternoon
before becoming westerly as ridging over the Interior pushes north
over the Brooks Range and North Slope Friday night into Saturday.
Periods of rain and showers will continue over the western Arctic
Coast through Friday afternoon. Areas east of Barrow will miss
out on the action, but will see a few showers this evening before
mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures take hold through
Friday evening. Daytime temperatures will be in the 60s for
coastal locations east of Barrow and inland temperatures will be
in the 70s. Strong gusty winds will continue at Cape Lisburne
through Friday morning.

Eastern and Central Interior...Thunderstorms will be limited to an
area south of a line from Eagle to Delta Junction and Healy south
this evening and Thursday afternoon/evening. Convective indices
are much weaker than the previous couple of days, but any strong
storms that may develop may have small hail, gusty winds, and
heavy downpours. To the north and west of this line, the upper
level ridge will remain firmly in control into Friday and will
provide mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Daytime highs
Thursday and Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today and
will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Persistent southeast flow
will bring increased wave action to some of the outer coastal
areas and St Lawrence Island with nearshore wave heights to 4 to 7
feet, but no significant erosion is expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are expected across far eastern zone 218 and
eastern zone 220 east of Chalkyitsik along the Alaska-Canada
border between noon and 10 pm. Red flag warnings have been issued
for tomorrow between noon and 10 pm in zone 218 east of Arctic
Village and from Chalkyitsik east in zone 220.

Thunderstorms will be limited to an area south of a line from
Eagle to Delta Junction to Healy through this evening and Thursday
afternoon/evening. Convective indicies are weaker today and
Thursday compared to earlier in the week, but stronger storms
could have small hail, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Minimum
relative humidity values trending down the next couple days with
values falling to around 20 to 25 percent in the upper Yukon
Flats and far eastern zone 218 Thursday. The remainder of the
area will be around 30 percent on Thursday, except out west of
Nenana where they be around 35 percent.

HYDROLOGY...
Rivers in the Fortymile Basin will continue to run high. Expect
them to fall over the next couple of days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ218-AKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

LTH  JUL 17