Gale Warning 47, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread
remains reasonable in the short range and mid ranges with the most
of the differences noted attributed to timing and position
differences with transitory shortwaves moving through the
longwave pattern. The model suite continues to do well with
longwave features through the mid range but begins to display
considerable spread in the long range.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a blocking high pressure ridge with axis along
a Gulf of Anadyr to Unalaska line will shift east to be over over
a Bering Strait to Unalaska line Wednesday. The ridge continues to
tilt to the east and will be along a Kotzebue to Unalaska line
Thursday. The cold downstream trough currently over the Yukon will
shift east with the ridge brining a slow increase in temperatures
over initially the west coast and western interior early in the
week but over the central and eastern interior by the end of the
week. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks will rise from around 25
below Sunday and Monday morning to 22 below Tuesday morning to 20
below Wednesday morning. 16 Below is expected at 850 mb Thursday
morning with around 10 below expected Friday morning.

A shortwave trough has just passed to the south of Fairbanks early
this afternoon. This wave continues to move rapidly south and east
and will pass through the eastern interior this evening. Another
shortwave along the north slope coast continues to move south and
east tonight and will bring another round of light snow to the
eastern and central interior tonight and Sunday morning with an
inch or less expected in these areas. 1 to 2 inches is expected in
the central and western Alaska Range with northwest flow
enhancing upslope flow. Skies are expected to clear out Sunday
evening over the central interior and combined with 850 mb
temperatures around 25 below over Fairbanks will allow surface
temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s below Monday and Tuesday
mornings from Fairbanks east, and temperatures will drop into the
20s and 30s below from Fairbanks west Monday morning. A slow
warmup will begin by the middle of the week for the west coat and
western interior and by weeks end for the central and eastern
interior. Seasonal temperatures or slightly above seasonal
temperatures are expected by next weekend over the interior.

On the surface a tight gradient is expected to develop tonight
once again on the eastern north slope with warning level low wind
chill values expected to develop this evening and blizzard
conditions expected to develop by Sunday morning. A Winter storm
warning for Blizzard conditions and low wind chill values has
been issued for the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast beginning this
evening and for low wind chill values and encompasses blizzard
conditions developing late tonight and continuing through Monday
afternoon. Another Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the
Central Beaufort Sea Coast including Prudhoe Bay for warning
level wind chill values as well as low visibilities. A winter
weather advisory was also issued for the northeastern Brook Range
for advisory level wind chill values as well as reduced
visibilities in blowing snow. A winter weather advisory was also
issued for the southeastern Brooks Range for similar winter conditions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

CCC MAR 17