Blizzard Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

724 
WWAK41 PAFG 041529
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
629 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

AKZ204-050000-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0010.170305T1500Z-170307T0000Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
629 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
AKST MONDAY...

* VISIBILITY...Reduced to one quarter mile or less in blowing 
  snow. 

* WINDS...West gusting to 60 mph.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...to 60 below.

* SNOW...additional up to 2 inches.

* TIMING...The Blizzard conditions of the past 5 days have now 
  ended. Winds will diminish this morning and remain less than 
  20 mph through midnight tonight. Winds will increase after 
  midnight tonight with blizzard conditions developing again by 
  6am Sunday. These conditions will continue through Monday. 

* IMPACTS...Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 
  Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting in 
  frostbite. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions in
blowing snow with strong winds and very poor visibilities are
occurring or expected.

&&

$$

AKZ203-050000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0011.170305T0900Z-170307T0000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
629 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES...to 65 below.

* WINDS...West gusting to 40 mph.

* BLOWING SNOW...will cause visibility of one half mile or less 
  at times. 

* TIMING...The blowing snow conditions of the past several days 
  have now ended. Winds will diminish this morning and remain 
  less than 20 mph through tonight. Winds will increase after 
  midnight tonight with wind chills falling to 65 below. Winds 
  will increase more on Sunday morning causing low visibility in 
  blowing snow to develop Sunday. These conditions will continue 
  through Monday. 

* IMPACTS...Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting 
  in frostbite. Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means one or more significant winter
weather hazards are occurring or expected.

&&

$$

AKZ206-050000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-170306T1200Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
629 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* BLOWING SNOW...will cause visibility of one half mile or less 
  at times. 

* WINDS...West gusting to 30 mph turning north tonight.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...to 50 below.

* TIMING...West winds and blowing snow are now causing reduced 
  visibility north of Sagwon. This afternoon the winds will turn 
  north and decrease north of Sagwon. North winds and blowing 
  snow will increase in passes this afternoon causing low 
  visibility to develop. Cold wind chills will develop tonight 
  in passes. These conditions will continue in passes through 
  Monday morning. 

* IMPACTS...Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 
  Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting in 
  frostbite. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that one or more winter weather
hazards are expected to cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

431 
WWAK41 PAFG 042050
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

AKZ204-050600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0010.170305T1500Z-170307T0000Z/
/O.EXB.PAFG.WS.W.0011.170305T0600Z-170307T0300Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
AKST MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for wind chill and blizzard conditions 
which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Monday. 
The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled. 

* WIND CHILL...to 65 below

* visibility...Reduced to one quarter mile or less at times

* WINDS...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
 
* SNOW...Additional up to 2 inches.

* TIMING...The Blizzard conditions of the past 5 days have ended
  however winds will increase this evening and combined with low
  temperatures will produce dangerous wind chill values to around
  65 below beginning late this evening and continuing through Monday.
  Winds and snow will increase late this evening with blizzard 
  conditions developing again by early Sunday morning and will 
  continue through Monday. 

* IMPACTS...Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting 
  in frostbite. Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means one or more significant winter
weather hazards are occurring or expected.

&&

$$

AKZ203-050600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0011.170305T0900Z-170307T0300Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES...to 65 below.

* WINDS...West gusting to 40 mph.

* BLOWING SNOW...will cause visibility of one half mile or less 
  at times. 

* TIMING...The blowing snow conditions of the past several days
  have ended however winds will increase again after midnight 
  tonight with wind chills falling to 65 below. Winds will 
  increase more on Sunday morning causing low visibility in 
  blowing snow to develop Sunday. These conditions will continue 
  through Monday. 

* IMPACTS...Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting 
  in frostbite. Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means one or more significant winter
weather hazards are occurring or expected.

&&

$$

AKZ206-050600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-170306T1200Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* BLOWING SNOW...will cause visibility of one half mile or less 
  at times. 

* WINDS...West gusting to 30 mph turning north tonight.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...to 50 below.

* TIMING...West winds and blowing snow continue to cause reduced
  visibility north of Sagwon. North winds and blowing snow will
  continue through the passes reducing visibility to one half mile
  or less at times. Cold wind chills will develop this evening
  through the passes. These conditions will continue in passes 
  through Monday morning.


* IMPACTS...Visibility will be very poor and snow will 
  accumulate into drifts. Whiteout conditions should be 
  expected. Travel and outdoor activities will be difficult. 
  Exposed flesh will freeze in a short time resulting in 
  frostbite. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that one or more winter weather
hazards are expected to cause travel difficulties.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
455 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge
stretching from the North Central Pacific north over the eastern
Bering Sea to Northeast Russia and a deep trough stretching from
Banks Island south over Eastern Alaska and Western Canada. This
pattern holds in place through Tue with several short waves
moving southeast across Northern Alaska. Temperatures over
Northern Alaska will remain well below normal through Tue and
there will be periods of light snow with each short wave.

The ridge will progress east over Northern Alaska from Wed through
Thu causing temperatures to rise next Wed to near normal by Thu
with generally dry conditions.

A short wave trough stretching from Old Crow to the Seward
Peninsula will move along the Alaska Range this afternoon. There
are flurries or light snow associated with this trough...except
for 1-2 inches of snow in upslope areas of the Alaska Range.

A second short wave trough over the Chukchi Sea will move over the
Seward Peninsula by 3pm Sat...and to McGrath to the Yukon Delta
by 3am Sun. Expect more flurries or light snow with this trough.

A third short wave trough will move south over eastern Alaska
tonight and Sun. This will push a cold front south and weather
associated with this will be detailed with the surface front.

A fourth short wave trough will ride over the ridge Sun and move
over the western North Slope Sun night and over the central north
Slope Mon. Expect more flurries with this feature.

850 mb temperatures range from -10C in SW Alaska to -30C in NE
Alaska. Temperatures will drop 2-4C through Sun and remain that
cold into Mon. Will see coldest surface temperatures Sun night
through Tue am...with surface temperatures warming from Tue night
through Thu next week.

Surface...
A strong cold front stretching from McKenzie Bay to just north of
Prudhoe Bay to Barrow will move to Arctic Village to POint Hope by
3pm Sat...to Dawson to McGrath by 3am Sun...and south of the
Alaska Range by Sun pm. Expect 1-2 inches of snow along this front
with snow diminishing north of the front. There are currently west
winds 20g30 mph with blowing snow along the front...with gusts to
50 mph and blizzard conditions at Barter due to the barrier jet
in that location. Similar strength winds will push into the Brooks
Range with this front and cause significant blowing snow there
through passes. Will add Winter Weather advisory for zones 206 and
218 for today into tonight for blowing snow. Winds and blowing
snow on the Arctic Coast will diminish rapidly behind the front
this morning.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the North Slope behind
the cold front tonight and Sun.

A low currently near the North Pole will move south to the
Beaufort Sea as a 1008 mb low by 3pm Sun...and to just south of
Banks Island by 3am Mon. This will cause west winds,snow and
blowing snow to increase over the eastern Arctic Coast Sun am with
Blizzard conditions likely in zone 204 and near blizzard in zone
203 that will last into Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through 3pm
Mon. After that time models similar with long wave pattern but
show differences with short wave features on
location/strength/timing that grows through time next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ220.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ245-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 17