Brisk Wind Advisory 106, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
455 AM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge
stretching from the North Central Pacific north over the eastern
Bering Sea to Northeast Russia and a deep trough stretching from
Banks Island south over Eastern Alaska and Western Canada. This
pattern holds in place through Tue with several short waves
moving southeast across Northern Alaska. Temperatures over
Northern Alaska will remain well below normal through Tue and
there will be periods of light snow with each short wave.

The ridge will progress east over Northern Alaska from Wed through
Thu causing temperatures to rise next Wed to near normal by Thu
with generally dry conditions.

A short wave trough stretching from Old Crow to the Seward
Peninsula will move along the Alaska Range this afternoon. There
are flurries or light snow associated with this trough...except
for 1-2 inches of snow in upslope areas of the Alaska Range.

A second short wave trough over the Chukchi Sea will move over the
Seward Peninsula by 3pm Sat...and to McGrath to the Yukon Delta
by 3am Sun. Expect more flurries or light snow with this trough.

A third short wave trough will move south over eastern Alaska
tonight and Sun. This will push a cold front south and weather
associated with this will be detailed with the surface front.

A fourth short wave trough will ride over the ridge Sun and move
over the western North Slope Sun night and over the central north
Slope Mon. Expect more flurries with this feature.

850 mb temperatures range from -10C in SW Alaska to -30C in NE
Alaska. Temperatures will drop 2-4C through Sun and remain that
cold into Mon. Will see coldest surface temperatures Sun night
through Tue am...with surface temperatures warming from Tue night
through Thu next week.

Surface...
A strong cold front stretching from McKenzie Bay to just north of
Prudhoe Bay to Barrow will move to Arctic Village to POint Hope by
3pm Sat...to Dawson to McGrath by 3am Sun...and south of the
Alaska Range by Sun pm. Expect 1-2 inches of snow along this front
with snow diminishing north of the front. There are currently west
winds 20g30 mph with blowing snow along the front...with gusts to
50 mph and blizzard conditions at Barter due to the barrier jet
in that location. Similar strength winds will push into the Brooks
Range with this front and cause significant blowing snow there
through passes. Will add Winter Weather advisory for zones 206 and
218 for today into tonight for blowing snow. Winds and blowing
snow on the Arctic Coast will diminish rapidly behind the front
this morning.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the North Slope behind
the cold front tonight and Sun.

A low currently near the North Pole will move south to the
Beaufort Sea as a 1008 mb low by 3pm Sun...and to just south of
Banks Island by 3am Mon. This will cause west winds,snow and
blowing snow to increase over the eastern Arctic Coast Sun am with
Blizzard conditions likely in zone 204 and near blizzard in zone
203 that will last into Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions through 3pm
Mon. After that time models similar with long wave pattern but
show differences with short wave features on
location/strength/timing that grows through time next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ220.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ245-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 17