Gale Warning 173, NWS Fairbanks, AK

748 
FZAK52 PAFG 311330
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010315-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1039 mb high will persist over Siberia. A 974 mb low near St
Paul Island will swing a weather front from Norton Sound to St.
Lawrence Island. As the low moves N today the pressure gradient 
over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Norton Sound, and Eastern 
Bering Sea will tighten and strong winds will continue. The 
gradient will relax tonight as the low moves east causing the 
winds to begin to diminish.

$$

PKZ200-010315-
Norton Sound-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-010315-
Dall Point to Wales-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010315-
Kotzebue Sound-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

663 
FZAK52 PAFG 312357
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011500-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1039 mb high will persist over Siberia. A 974 mb low near the
Pribilofs will move W and the associated weather front will rotate
to the NW across the St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait
tonight. The low will move SW Mon. A 960 mb low will move to Sand
Point by Mon afternoon, and the Lower Yukon Delta by Tue
afternoon and the Seward Peninsula by Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ200-011500-
Norton Sound-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing rain. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-011500-
Dall Point to Wales-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt becoming SE. Seas 17 ft. Blowing snow.
Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011500-
Kotzebue Sound-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Snow.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-011500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing 
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term solutions continue with good run to run
continuity that they have shown the last week or so. There are
still some fairly big changes around 60 hours each cycle that have
to be dealt with. 30/12Z solutions initialized well against the
30/18Z surface analysis with good positions with features about
3 mb lower across the area. SREF/NAM precipitation solution
favored for the short term.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging building over the area as a 510 dam
low moves northeast across the Arctic with a trough persisting
over the area just offshore of the Arctic Coast. The ridge axis
will lie from over the Southeast Panhandle Coast to Yakutat to St
Lawrence Island by late this evening, and from Dawson YT to Noatak
and west across the Chukchi Sea by Sunday morning. As the ridge
moves north a 510 dam low over the Eastern Aleutians will move
north over the Bering Sea over the Pribilofs, then slowly west. A
shortwave will move north in the Pacific to lie from the low
southeast over Sand Point into the northeast Pacific by Sunday
afternoon, and by Monday morning will lie from Nunivak Island east
over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, then over the Panhandle. The ridge
will be over the Eastern Brooks Range and Arctic Plain by Monday
morning with a 530 dam high near 75N 180. The shortwave will
continue to move north Monday and weaken while a weak ridge builds
in behind it, and a 504 dam low moves over Sand Point. The low
will absorb the low that was moving west early Tuesday. The high
near the Dateline will move to the Central Arctic Monday night at
528 dam. At 850 hpa...Warmer air pushing up from the south will
raise temperatures south of the Brooks Range into 0 to -10 range
by Sunday morning, while to the north of the Range the
temperatures will rise to -10 to -15.

Surface...High pressure persists over the Yukon Territory with
a broad area of low pressure over mainland Alaska and the eastern
Bering Sea. 1040 mb high persists in the Upper Tanana Valley and
Yukon Territory with leeside low enhancing today and tonight as
976 mb lows in the Eastern Aleutians rotate around each other and
a 978 mb low moves to Bristol Bay then over the Kuskokwim Delta as
it dissipates Sunday morning. A weather front associated with the
lows will spread mainly snow over the lower Yukon Delta, parts of
the Western Interior, and the Seward Peninsula. Strong pressure
gradient developing across the Alaska Range and down the Tanana
Valley will relax by late Sunday. A 1012 dam low just offshore
from Point Barrow will continue to move northeast into the
Beaufort Sea tonight. A 1038 mb high over Siberia will move to the
Siberian Arctic Coast by Sunday morning, then near 75N 180 by
Sunday evening.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, patchy fog, flurries, and
winds turning onshore for most areas at 5 to 15 mph. For the
Northwest Coast winds will be turning offshore and increasing as
the pressure gradient across the Chukchi Sea and Western Arctic is
squeezed.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty active from the Seward
Peninsula south and over St lawrence Island as the lows spin a
front north tonight and pressure gradient gets squeezed across the
Eastern Bering Sea. Models have increase the amount of
precipitation in the lower Yukon Delta so will issue Winter
Weather Advisory for zone 215 to go with the ones already issued.

Central and Eastern Interior...Generally quiet, with warming
temperatures across the area. Some gap winds gusting to 55 mph in
the Alaska Range, and Tanana Valley Jet is kicking winds up from
Dot lake to Nenana with winds around Delta Junction gusting to
55 mph and gusts to around 25 mph in Nenana. A weather front will
move across the area from south to north, but not expecting any
precipitation south of the Yukon River as moisture is downsloped
out.

&&

Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low will be moving
into the Western Bering Sea Thursday and Friday, but models area
still all over with the location and strength so will use a blend
for now.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

SDB DEC 17