Gale Warning 172, NWS Fairbanks, AK

258 
FZAK52 PAFG 302330
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-311500-
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1039 mb high will persist over Siberia. A 976 mb low will swing
a weather front N to Norton Sound and St Lawrence. As the low
moves N into the Central Bering the pressure gradient over the
Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Norton Sound, and Eastern Bering Sea
will tighten with strong winds developing across the area. The
gradient will relax late Sun and winds will start diminishing.

$$

PKZ200-311500-
Norton Sound-
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-311500-
Dall Point to Wales-
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. Blowing
snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-311500-
Kotzebue Sound-
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-311500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
230 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Strongest winds
near the Bering Strait. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or 
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 35 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait. 
Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

748 
FZAK52 PAFG 311330
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010315-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1039 mb high will persist over Siberia. A 974 mb low near St
Paul Island will swing a weather front from Norton Sound to St.
Lawrence Island. As the low moves N today the pressure gradient 
over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Norton Sound, and Eastern 
Bering Sea will tighten and strong winds will continue. The 
gradient will relax tonight as the low moves east causing the 
winds to begin to diminish.

$$

PKZ200-010315-
Norton Sound-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-010315-
Dall Point to Wales-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010315-
Kotzebue Sound-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-010315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
430 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

663 
FZAK52 PAFG 312357
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-011500-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1039 mb high will persist over Siberia. A 974 mb low near the
Pribilofs will move W and the associated weather front will rotate
to the NW across the St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait
tonight. The low will move SW Mon. A 960 mb low will move to Sand
Point by Mon afternoon, and the Lower Yukon Delta by Tue
afternoon and the Seward Peninsula by Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ200-011500-
Norton Sound-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing rain. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-011500-
Dall Point to Wales-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt becoming SE. Seas 17 ft. Blowing snow.
Snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-011500-
Kotzebue Sound-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Snow.
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-011500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
257 PM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing 
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The quiet weather pattern of the last week will transition to an
active pattern especially for the west coast and Bering Strait
beginning Saturday evening and will continue through much of next
week.

Temperatures continue to be the biggest forecast challenge
especially along the cloud edge over the central interior just to
the west of Fairbanks. Locations over the central interior will
experience large temperature swings as the cloud edge meanders
overhead. Generally mostly cloudy skies are found with low
ceiling and Flurries to the west of Manley Hot Springs with
temperatures near zero or single digits below. To the east partly
cloudy skies are noted and temperatures are in the 20s and 30s
below around Fairbanks and the 30s and 40s below over the upper
Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country.

Light snow and low ceilings and fog are found along the north
slope as an upper level low over the western north slope continues
to weaken and drift to the north.

Aloft at 500 mb a 510 dam low currently over the western north
slope will continue to drift to the north and east tonight and
will be located near Point Barrow Saturday morning and 100 nm west
of Banks Island Sunday morning. A broad longwave trough exists
over the eastern Bering Sea and will strengthen and move south to
near the Aleutian Islands Sunday as an upper level ridge builds
back over the Yukon. A series of shortwave troughs will rotate
around the long wave trough over the Bering Sea next week
producing periods of winds and snow over western Alaska, the
Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. A tight gradient develops
aloft between the upper level low over the Aleutians and the Ridge
over the Yukon and will produce upper level and mid level
southerly winds over much of the central and eastern Alaska. The
upper level winds will produce a lee side trough over the northern
foothills of the Alaska Range and will produce periods of gusty
winds through the Alaska Range passes as well as the northern
foothills of the Alaska Range. A Tanana Valley Jet will form
Saturday night and continue into Sunday from Delta Junction west
to near Nenana and will produce gusty southeast winds. Winds are
expected to remain just below advisory levels.

On the surface a front associated with a 970 mb low over the
central Aleutians will sweep north into the lower YK Delta
Saturday afternoon and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait Saturday evening. Strong winds and blowing snow are
expected to develop over the Lower YK Delta especially along the
coast Saturday morning and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for snow and blowing snow as well as for advisory level
wind gusts along the coast for the lower YK Delta beginning
Saturday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for St
Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast for snow and blowing
snow along with warning level wind gusts beginning Saturday
evening.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains limited in the short range and is reasonable in the
mid range. Significant timing and strength differences crop up in
the long range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
&&

CCC DEC 17