Storm Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

739 
FZAK52 PAFC 031216
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040100-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 370 nm south of Sand Point moves to 60 nm southeast
of Chignik at 962 mb by Sun evening. The associated front pushes 
into the eastern Bering this afternoon through Tue morning. A 975
mb low 200 nm North of Shemya tracks to 170 nm northwest of Dutch 
Harbor at 993 mb for Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040100-
Bristol Bay-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 40 kt becoming SW
30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040100-
Unalaska Bay-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040100-
Adak to Kiska-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040100-
Kiska to Attu-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 AM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

997 
FZAK52 PAFC 040006
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041300-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 mb low 70 nm southeast of Chignik will move inland by Mon 
morning. A 976 mb low 240 nm northeast of Shemya will move to 215
nm southwest of St. Paul Island at 988 mb by Mon evening then it 
will move to 215 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor at 1000 mb by Tue 
evening.

$$

PKZ150-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Chirikof Island, SE wind 15 kt becoming SW and
increasing to 45 kt after midnight. W of Chirikof Island, W wind 45 
kt. Seas 17 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and
passes. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
Bristol Bay-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 40 kt becoming SW
30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
Unalaska Bay-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
Adak to Kiska-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
Kiska to Attu-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
306 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A shortwave ridge over Southcentral AK is quickly being displaced
to the east this morning as a front moves into the Cook Inlet
region from the west, spreading mixed precipitation over coastal
locations and bringing light snow to inland areas from Anchorage
to the Susitna Valley. In the wake of the front, broad southwest
flow is promoting a showery regime across much of Southwest AK and
the Bering Sea, with a deep low anchored off of the northern
Kamchatka coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement in the short term and have
largely converged on a solution for the next powerful low set to
move over the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This system will send a
strong front into the Gulf and then generate strong gap winds
through favored areas such as Turnagain Arm as the low tracks into
Southwest AK on Monday. Mainly utilized the NAM in the first 24
hours of the forecast and then transitioned to more of an ECMWF
approach with the approach of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions with potential brief periods of IFR
conditions will persist through late this morning at the terminal as
snow spreads into Upper Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl. Snow
should taper off around 21z as southeast winds spread into the
terminal and persist through late evening. VFR conditions for the
remainder of the TAF period after 21z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front ushering in the change in weather pattern is moving
through Southcentral Alaska this morning. The south to southwest
flow aloft is bringing snow into most of the Cook Inlet region
into the Susitna Valley. In southern Cook Inlet temperatures have
warmed up enough to change precipitation over to rain. Snow in the
Anchorage area and Matanuska Valley will be mostly relegated to
this morning as the low level gradient will bring in southeast
winds by late morning which will cause downsloping to rapidly cut
off snowfall. The Susitna Valley is the exception and remains
under a Winter Weather Advisory due to snowfall through midnight
Saturday night. Snow totals look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range
overall with some areas possibly seeing the 12 inch mark.

A strong front moving into the north Gulf coast Sunday will cause
a storm force barrier jet to move along the coastal marine waters.
Prince William Sound will also see Gale force winds as the front
pushes warm air northward. This will cause widespread areas with
above freezing temperatures (including Anchorage) Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the southwest Mainland continues to weaken and
track eastward across the Alaska Range today, leaving steady
onshore flow and some lingering showers in its wake. The showers
will taper off throughout the day, with mostly rain falling over
the Bristol Bay area and snow falling over the Kuskokwim Delta
and Kuskokwim Valley. As those showers taper off this evening, the
next front associated with a North Pacific low begins to push into
the Alaska Peninsula overnight tonight into Saturday morning. There
is still a bit of uncertainty with regards to this system, mainly
with regards to the track and timing of the precipitation and
winds over the AKPen and Southwest mainland. However, there is
higher confidence that the AKPen and the southwest mainland will
see another round of precipitation and gusty winds through
Monday, as the low tracks across the area and into the northern
Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure across the western Bering fills through the weekend
as the next developing low races north to the Alaska Peninsula on
Sunday. Showery conditions over the western and central
Bering/Aleutians are expected to persist through the weekend
under cyclonic flow and unstable conditions as cold air continues
to filter in from the west. This cold westerly flow along the base
of the weakening low is likely to keep snow as the primary
precipitation type over the area through Monday.

Over the eastern Bering and Aleutians however, rain and snow
showers will persist over the area through tonight under unstable
southwesterly flow. As the next system moves up from the North
Pacific overnight tonight and across the AKPen Sunday, colder air
will begin to filter southward along the western periphery of the
low. This colder air will slowly help transition precipitation
types over the eastern Bering and Aleutians from a rain/snow mix
Sunday morning to snow by Sunday afternoon. The colder air
mentioned above, along with a tightening gradient over the area
will also bring some gusty north to northwest winds to the eastern
Bering/Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday morning through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Friday)... Monday the strong
storm will have crossed the Alaska Peninsula and the associated
front will have pushed inland along the Gulf of Alaska coast. This
storm will be near Nunivak Island Monday moving to the Saint
Lawrence Island area by Tuesday afternoon. The latest models have
come into better agreement on this solution. As the front moves
in along the coast it will target the southern mainland with a
river of warm moist air. This scenario is indicative of a strong
wind along Turnagain Arm and higher elevations of the Chugach
Monday supporting a chinook setup. With this comes strong cross
barrier flow that will result in the typical lee side drying and
minimal if any precipitation over much of south central Alaska.

On the backside of this storm will be the strong northwest wind
across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula that will
rapidly turn to the west as the wind slowly diminishes Monday.

As we head into Tuesday the models are struggling with a
consistent solution with respect to bringing another low toward
the Alaska Peninsula. The GFS and ECMWF are roughly 600 nm apart
for the low center. At this point we will continue along with the
WPC solution as confidence is low for the forecast for the middle
to end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145
MARINE...Storm Warning 119
		 Gale Warning 120 125 129 130 131 139 155 165 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...SA/DEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
928 AM AKST SAT DEC 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     SNOW             5 ENE BIG LAKE          61.54N 149.82W
12/02/2017  M4.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
104 PM AKST SAT DEC 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     SNOW             6 NNE TRAPPER CREEK     62.32N 150.32W
12/02/2017  M3.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SNOWFALL SINCE 7PM. AT THE TIME OF THE OBSERVATION THERE
            WAS LIGHT SNOWFALL.

1240 PM     SNOW             8 N CASWELL             62.10N 150.06W
12/02/2017  E3.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR MILE POST 97 ON GEORGE PARKS HWY

1240 PM     SNOW             5 NNW TRAPPER CREEK     62.30N 150.50W
12/02/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS 14 INCHES.

1248 PM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
12/02/2017  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

RA