Gale Warning 702, NWS Anchorage, AK

195 
FZAK51 PAFC 022358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031230-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the southwest Gulf moves into the northern Gulf through 
Mon then it will dissipate. The associated North Pacific low will 
move to 138 nm southeast of Sand Point at 962 mb by Sun morning then to
75 nm east of Chignik at 960 mb by Sun afternoon and inland by Mon 
morning. A second North Pacific low will move to 120 nm southeast of 
Chignik at 997 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-031230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 60 kt
diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft building to 30 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031230-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031230-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 60 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031230-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031230-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031230-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031230-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031230-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 31 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031230-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031230-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031230-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031230-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

Updated long term discussion

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large gale force low over the northern Bering Sea and its
leading frontal trough approaching the southwest mainland are the
main weather features. Widespread westerly small craft to gale
force winds are evident across much of the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands. Southerly gales were also observed in advance of the
front along the Alaska Peninsula and coastal Southwest Alaska. A
mix of rain and snow were observed over the Southwest mainland.
Satellite imagery shows a broad area of open cell cumulus showers
with cold advection on the backside of front across much of the
Bering Sea. Elsewhere, generally fair skies with patchy low
clouds and fog were observed across Cook Inlet and inland
locations across Southcentral with weak gap flows over the North
Gulf Coast and eastern Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
12z models are in fairly good agreement with the front which
sweeps across the mainland tonight and Saturday. They are starting
to come in better agreement with a second system heading toward
the AK Peninsula on Sunday. The EC which had been on the slow side
had come into better alignment with the 12z GFS which is what we
are leaning toward this forecast package. That said, the 18z NAM
came in with a completely difference scenario with this low
center.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...generally will be looking at VFR conditions through the TAF
period with the possibility of a brief bout of MVFR with a little
snow Saturday morning. There will likely be some LLWS Sat followed
by gusty southeast winds across the airport complex Sat afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
The weekend will feature a 1 to 2 punch of active weather. The
first will come from the west and slide through the area on
Saturday. The biggest impact from this will be snow across the
Susitna Valley. A potent jet aloft coupled with a fair amount of
moisture in the column and sustained upslope flow will lead to
steady snowfall throughout the valley. A Winter Weather Advisory
is in effect to address this. As this feature slides further east,
it will produce an increase in south to southeast flow across
much of southern AK. The result will be mixed precipitation for
the Cook Inlet region. While things could start out cold enough
for snow, warmer air and those winds will cause precipitation to
become mixed. This could take a few hours longer in colder,
sheltered valleys, but eventually, the winds will erode the cold
air and bring a mix to just about all locations south of Palmer.
Coastal areas will turn to rain even earlier and will receive a
decent soaking from this first front.

The stronger system is due to arrive Sunday. This system will
bring abundant warm air, moisture, and very strong winds from the
North Pacific. As the system drives towards southwest AK, winds
out of the southeast will increase across southern AK. The
direction will favor the typical southeast gaps such as the
Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, and the Copper River. Winds could
reach near warning-level (75 mph) in the Turnagain Arm, but it is
still a bit too far out to have enough certainty to include it in
the forecast. A storm-force barrier jet is also expected to form
along the northern Gulf coast. These winds and the warmer air will
work in tandem for places on the lee-side of the mountains to see
the warmest temperatures in quite some time Sunday into Monday.
For many of the population centers, these winds will keep
precipitation at bay. However, across the Susitna Valley, if the
cold air can linger long enough, there could be another round of
heavy wet snow. It should turn over to a mix or all rain by Sun
afternoon though with relentless warm air. Rain could be heavy
along coastal locations with Seward expected to get over 2.5
inches during the event. The other concern with this system is the
rapidly rising freezing levels. This could allow heavy, wet snow
or rain to fall upon old snowpack in the mountains and
significantly decrease snow stability. Back country users should
check the latest local avalanche forecast at alaskasnow.org before
venturing out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure over the Bering pushes the front currently along the
Southwest coast, to the Alaska and Aleutians Ranges tonight. Deep
southerly flow off the surface surges a warmer air mass through
the Kuskokwim Valley warming temperatures through the column
enough to bring rain for Bristol Bay and across much of the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Snow is expected mainly north of an east to west
line along Sleetmute. However, the front will not bring much
accumulation overnight as it rapidly weakens since it outruns the
associated parent low in the Bering. The next front to watch
moves up to the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. There is still a bit
of uncertainty on this system and should be monitored for wind
and precipitation changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure across the western Bering fills through the weekend
as the next developing low races north to the Alaska Peninsula on
Sunday. Weak short waves moving about the Bering low keeps
ongoing showers through the short term forecast. Zonal flow along
the base of the low across the west Bering advects a colder air
mass back toward the central waters which brings mixed precipitation
along a modified air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Friday)...
Monday the strong storm will have crossed the Alaska Peninsula
and the associated front will have pushed inland along the Gulf of
Alaska coast. This storm will be near Nunivak Island Monday
moving to the Saint Lawrence Island area by Tuesday afternoon. The
latest models have come into better agreement on this solution.
As the front moves in along the coast it will target the southern
mainland with a river of warm moist air. This scenario is
indicative of a strong wind along Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations of the Chugach Monday supporting a chinook setup. With
this comes strong cross barrier flow that will result in the
typical lee side drying and minimal if any precipitation over much
of south central Alaska.

On the backside of this storm will be the strong northwest wind
across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula that will
rapidly turn to the west as the wind slowly diminishes Monday.

As we head into Tuesday the models are struggling with a
consistent solution with respect to bringing another low toward
the Alaska Peninsula. The GFS and ECMWF are roughly 600 nm apart
for the low center. At this point we will continue along with the
WPC solution as confidence is low in the details of the long term
forecast into the middle of next week. There is however good
confidence in a much more active and warmer weather pattern for the
Gulf and South Mainland for early-mid next week with great consensus
in a building ridge over the west coast. This will leave the Gulf
and South Mainland under the influence of deep southerly flow with
the potential for a series of systems to quickly moving north
through the area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory for Snow 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 175 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...SA/DEK