Gale Warning 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 2, 2017, 2:58 PM AKST (23:58 UTC)

Expired

Dec 3, 2017, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

195 
FZAK51 PAFC 022358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031230-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the southwest Gulf moves into the northern Gulf through 
Mon then it will dissipate. The associated North Pacific low will 
move to 138 nm southeast of Sand Point at 962 mb by Sun morning then to
75 nm east of Chignik at 960 mb by Sun afternoon and inland by Mon 
morning. A second North Pacific low will move to 120 nm southeast of 
Chignik at 997 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-031230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 60 kt
diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft building to 30 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031230-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031230-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 60 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031230-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031230-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031230-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031230-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031230-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 31 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031230-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031230-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031230-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031230-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 2, 4:50 AM AKST, 10 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A shortwave ridge over Southcentral AK is quickly being displaced
to the east this morning as a front moves into the Cook Inlet
region from the west, spreading mixed precipitation over coastal
locations and bringing light snow to inland areas from Anchorage
to the Susitna Valley. In the wake of the front, broad southwest
flow is promoting a showery regime across much of Southwest AK and
the Bering Sea, with a deep low anchored off of the northern
Kamchatka coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement in the short term and have
largely converged on a solution for the next powerful low set to
move over the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This system will send a
strong front into the Gulf and then generate strong gap winds
through favored areas such as Turnagain Arm as the low tracks into
Southwest AK on Monday. Mainly utilized the NAM in the first 24
hours of the forecast and then transitioned to more of an ECMWF
approach with the approach of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions with potential brief periods of IFR
conditions will persist through late this morning at the terminal as
snow spreads into Upper Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl. Snow
should taper off around 21z as southeast winds spread into the
terminal and persist through late evening. VFR conditions for the
remainder of the TAF period after 21z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front ushering in the change in weather pattern is moving
through Southcentral Alaska this morning. The south to southwest
flow aloft is bringing snow into most of the Cook Inlet region
into the Susitna Valley. In southern Cook Inlet temperatures have
warmed up enough to change precipitation over to rain. Snow in the
Anchorage area and Matanuska Valley will be mostly relegated to
this morning as the low level gradient will bring in southeast
winds by late morning which will cause downsloping to rapidly cut
off snowfall. The Susitna Valley is the exception and remains
under a Winter Weather Advisory due to snowfall through midnight
Saturday night. Snow totals look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range
overall with some areas possibly seeing the 12 inch mark.

A strong front moving into the north Gulf coast Sunday will cause
a storm force barrier jet to move along the coastal marine waters.
Prince William Sound will also see Gale force winds as the front
pushes warm air northward. This will cause widespread areas with
above freezing temperatures (including Anchorage) Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the southwest Mainland continues to weaken and
track eastward across the Alaska Range today, leaving steady
onshore flow and some lingering showers in its wake. The showers
will taper off throughout the day, with mostly rain falling over
the Bristol Bay area and snow falling over the Kuskokwim Delta
and Kuskokwim Valley. As those showers taper off this evening, the
next front associated with a North Pacific low begins to push into
the Alaska Peninsula overnight tonight into Saturday morning. There
is still a bit of uncertainty with regards to this system, mainly
with regards to the track and timing of the precipitation and
winds over the AKPen and Southwest mainland. However, there is
higher confidence that the AKPen and the southwest mainland will
see another round of precipitation and gusty winds through
Monday, as the low tracks across the area and into the northern
Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure across the western Bering fills through the weekend
as the next developing low races north to the Alaska Peninsula on
Sunday. Showery conditions over the western and central
Bering/Aleutians are expected to persist through the weekend
under cyclonic flow and unstable conditions as cold air continues
to filter in from the west. This cold westerly flow along the base
of the weakening low is likely to keep snow as the primary
precipitation type over the area through Monday.

Over the eastern Bering and Aleutians however, rain and snow
showers will persist over the area through tonight under unstable
southwesterly flow. As the next system moves up from the North
Pacific overnight tonight and across the AKPen Sunday, colder air
will begin to filter southward along the western periphery of the
low. This colder air will slowly help transition precipitation
types over the eastern Bering and Aleutians from a rain/snow mix
Sunday morning to snow by Sunday afternoon. The colder air
mentioned above, along with a tightening gradient over the area
will also bring some gusty north to northwest winds to the eastern
Bering/Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday morning through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Friday)... Monday the strong
storm will have crossed the Alaska Peninsula and the associated
front will have pushed inland along the Gulf of Alaska coast. This
storm will be near Nunivak Island Monday moving to the Saint
Lawrence Island area by Tuesday afternoon. The latest models have
come into better agreement on this solution. As the front moves
in along the coast it will target the southern mainland with a
river of warm moist air. This scenario is indicative of a strong
wind along Turnagain Arm and higher elevations of the Chugach
Monday supporting a chinook setup. With this comes strong cross
barrier flow that will result in the typical lee side drying and
minimal if any precipitation over much of south central Alaska.

On the backside of this storm will be the strong northwest wind
across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula that will
rapidly turn to the west as the wind slowly diminishes Monday.

As we head into Tuesday the models are struggling with a
consistent solution with respect to bringing another low toward
the Alaska Peninsula. The GFS and ECMWF are roughly 600 nm apart
for the low center. At this point we will continue along with the
WPC solution as confidence is low for the forecast for the middle
to end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145
MARINE...Storm Warning 119
		 Gale Warning 120 125 129 130 131 139 155 165 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...SA/DEK

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
928 AM AKST SAT DEC 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     SNOW             5 ENE BIG LAKE          61.54N 149.82W
12/02/2017  M4.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
104 PM AKST SAT DEC 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     SNOW             6 NNE TRAPPER CREEK     62.32N 150.32W
12/02/2017  M3.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SNOWFALL SINCE 7PM. AT THE TIME OF THE OBSERVATION THERE
            WAS LIGHT SNOWFALL.

1240 PM     SNOW             8 N CASWELL             62.10N 150.06W
12/02/2017  E3.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR MILE POST 97 ON GEORGE PARKS HWY

1240 PM     SNOW             5 NNW TRAPPER CREEK     62.30N 150.50W
12/02/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS 14 INCHES.

1248 PM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
12/02/2017  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

RA

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.