Small Craft Advisory 944, NWS Anchorage, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAFC 101300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110200-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 990 mb low over Kodiak City moves inland and dissipates this 
afternoon. A 973 mb low 600 nm southeast of Sitkinak moves 160 nm
southeast of Sitkinak at 964 mb this afternoon and then moves 
over the AKPEN Sun night at 970 mb. A 965 mb North Pacific low 
moves 175 nm southwest of Sitkinak at 977 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ119-110200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 20 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 60 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft
subsiding to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 60 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas 30 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 29 ft
subsiding to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110200-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt this morning then N 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Higher seas south of Caines Head. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming S with gusts to 35 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110200-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110200-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110200-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110200-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110200-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing 35 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110200-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 60 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas 28 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 50 kt becoming E 35
kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110200-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft 
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110200-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 25 ft
subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110200-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 25 ft
subsiding to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-110200-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There has been little overall change in the large scale synoptic
pattern in the last 24 hours as much of the state remains under
the influence of a large blocking ridge over the west coast of
the lower 48 and a broad trough over the Bering/North Pacific. A
shortwave ridge has stretched along the western side of the
blocking ridge into the South Mainland, which has allowed for the
development of patchy dense fog/low stratus in many areas of the
South mainland including Cook Inlet after clear skies and stable
conditions developed behind widespread rains on Friday. As as
often been the case in this very active pattern, yet another
system is quickly moving northward into the Gulf, helping to erode
away the ridge and bring yet another round of gale force winds
and rain to the Gulf for Sunday. This system is part of a complex
low which is also bringing rain/snow as well as gusty
northwesterly winds from the Eastern Aleutians into the AKpen this
morning, which will continue slowly rotating westward today
before diving south back into the North Pacific this evening. Over
Western Aleutians a storm force front is beginning to move into
the area, bringing rain back to that area. This front will however
struggle to reach much further east today as it runs into high
pressure over the Central Bering, forcing it generally south of
the Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement remains very good with both the incoming gale
force low into the Gulf this evening, as well as the storm
force Western Aleutian front. Ahead of the gulf low, one of the
primary forecast challenges has been determining where the
widespread fog/stratus over Southcentral will develop, which none
of the models are handling very well, causing forecast confidence
in its longevity and intensity to be low. Starting Sunday, model
agreement has improved somewhat the next deeper Gulf low, that is
then expected to move through the Southwest Mainland on Monday.
While there is still some uncertainty in the exact track of this
low, agreement overnight was enough to significantly increase
winds over the North Gulf as well as gap winds from Turnagain
Arm eastward into the Copper River. The winds currently in the
forecast are conservative in most areas due to continued
placement issues, so they may still need to be fine tuned, but
there is good confidence in the overall trend of this system into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The main challenge today will come from determining how
long the LIFR fog/stratus will continue as stable conditions
remain with little in the way of forcing to scour it away until
this afternoon. Conditions are beginning to improve early this
morning, however it is likely that the fog (which could still be
dense at times) will fade in-and-out until late morning. Starting
this afternoon much of the fog should dissipate, however IFR
stratus decks will likely remain around Cook Inlet into this
evening. Ceilings should them improve to around 5000 ft early
Sunday as gusty SE winds begin to develop along with some light
rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The active pattern will continue with a series of lows and
frontal systems moving rapidly northwest across the Gulf. The
general storm track will carry the lows northwest across Kodiak
Island while their associated frontal systems sweep north across
the Gulf and Southcentral. With this pattern the brunt of the
precipitation will remain along the coasts and upslope areas of
the Alaska/Aleutian ranges boarding Cook Inlet and the Susitna
Valley. Downslope drying west of the Kenai/Chugach should mitigate
precipitation inland, though some light precipitation will
accompany the front in these areas. Rain will be the predominate
precipitation type along the coasts. Precipitation types inland
will be somewhat more challenging this weekend with areas seeing a
mix with a heavy lean toward rain across the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley. These systems will also bring fairly strong
winds. The first low will bring gales to the northern/western Gulf
and locally strong gap flows today and tonight. The next low hot
on its heals will move to near Kodiak Sunday evening and will
bring storm force winds to the Gulf waters and even stronger gap
flows.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Saturday and
Sunday)...
Today will be a relatively quiet weather day across Southwest
Alaska. Portions of the area are starting out the day in some fog,
while much of the rest are just dealing with cool northerly winds,
which should help keep most locations away from the immediate
coast of Bristol Bay below freezing today.

Two different low pressure systems will be impacting Southwest
Alaska over the next couple days. Both systems will be moving into
the area from the southeast after crossing the Aleutian Mountains
from the Gulf. The first will cross the mountains Sunday morning,
and will be the weaker of the two. While it will transport in
slightly cooler air aloft, because of its track, much of Southwest
Alaska will be under the influence of downslope southeasterly
winds. These winds will help warm temperatures Sunday afternoon,
particularly west of the Alaska Range, turning any precipitation
that doesn't evaporate out into rain. Meanwhile east facing slopes
of the Kuskokwim Mountains will see upslope enhancement of the
remaining moisture, though snow totals in populated areas are not
expected to amount to much due to a reduction of moisture having
been wrung out by the Aleutian Mountains first, and temperatures
that will be at or above freezing on Sunday.

The next stronger system will follow a similar track Sunday night
into Monday. Somewhat more moisture available will increase snow
totals compared to Sunday morning's system, especially along the
Kuskokwim Mountains. However, even warmer air and downsloping
associated with the low will again see communities closer to the
Alaska Range getting little in the way of precipitation and seeing
the warmest temperatures, while those further west pick up a few
inches of wet snow with temps near freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Saturday
and Sunday)...
A low and associated front over the eastern Aleutians and Bering
this morning will shift southward through the day, resulting in a
diminishing of the precipitation throughout the area by this
afternoon. Meanwhile across the western Aleutians, a storm force
warm front associated with a rapidly deepening low centered well
west of the Aleutians will move into the area today. The front
will cause sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts potentially
nearing hurricane force, especially from Attu westward. The front
will quickly fall apart Saturday night into Sunday as the parent
low begins quickly weakening and moving northwest even further
from the Aleutians. Nevertheless a period of heavy precipitation,
likely a mix of rain and snow, is expected through Saturday night
for all of the Aleutians west of Adak. Then as the aforementioned
lows move into Southwest Alaska Sunday and Monday, low pressure
over the mainland and relatively higher pressure over the western
Bering through to Kamchatka will cause a broad area of north to
northeast winds to develop across much of the Bering, causing
widespread small crafts with some gales mixed in, especially in
the northern Bering. The northerly winds will also help to keep
the cool air mass in place, with snow showers common in the
affected areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The barrage of low pressure systems will continue for the next
week. This means warm air, multiple rounds of heavy precipitation
along the Gulf Coast, and occasional high wind events will remain
the threat across much of southern Alaska during the extended
forecast period. The good news is that there are increasing signs
that the big ridge over western North America that has created
this persistent weather pattern will be breaking down by next week
at this time (Friday). Thus, while there will be at least 3
significant storms that affect southern Alaska over the next 7
days, the direction of movement of these storms will be slowly
changing.

The first storm, on Monday, will come in from the southeast and
hammer the north Gulf Coast again and also potentially create
strong winds in inland areas like Anchorage. This bears watching
over the next day or two to begin to fine-tune the details. The
second storm comes through around the middle of next week from a
more southern direction (rather than southeast). By Friday, a 3rd
storm moves into the area, but this time it will be from the
southwest (tracking first through the Bering Sea and then
impacting Southwest and Southcentral Alaska with rain and wind).
Although all of these storms will continue to resupply the warm
air in place around the region, they will be slowly but surely
paving the way for a return to cooler weather hopefully by the end
of next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisories 101 121.
MARINE...Storm 178
         Gale 119 120 130 131 132 138 139.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...AMD