Gale Warning 677, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
FZAK62 PAFC 110011
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111400-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 mb low in the western Gulf will move to 58N 155W at 967 mb by 
Mon morning then it will move inland over the Bristol Bay and 
dissipate through Mon. A 976 mb North Pacific low will move to 54N
156W by Tue morning then it will move to 57N 160W at 984 mb by 
Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

517 
FZAK62 PAFC 111244
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120215-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 mb low in the western Gulf will move to 55N 157W at 977 mb 
by Tue morning then moves inland over the Bristol Bay by Tue 
night. A 992 mb low Tue night at 51N 151W will move to 55N 152W by
Wed morning at 988 mb. A front approaches the western Aleutians
Tue afternoon, then moves into the western Bering by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-120215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt becoming NW 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

180 
FZAK62 PAFC 120008
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121415-
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 50N 157W will move to 55N 159W at 980 mb Tue morning
then dissipate as it moves inland over Bristol Bay Tue night. A 985 
mb North Pacific low will move near 55N 153W Wed morning then move 
inland over Bristol Bay at 982 mb Wed evening. A front will move 
over the western Bering Tue night then move into the central Bering 
Wed night.

$$

PKZ411-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming up to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
308 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

093 
FZAK62 PAFC 121246
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130245-
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 55N 157W will move inland over Bristol Bay and 
dissipate by Tue night. A 988 mb North Pacific low will move near 57N
158W at 989 mb by Wed morning then will move inland and dissipate by
Wed evening. A front in the western Bering will move into the 
central Bering by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-130245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level low centered south of the Alaska Peninsula
with a trough extending northward across the eastern Bering Sea
and another extending northeast into the Gulf. Associated with the
Gulf trough is a surface low centered southeast of Kodiak Island
moving to the northwest. An occluded front extends northeast from
the low and is approaching the northern Gulf coast, with a decent
slug of moisture and Gale Force winds developing. An upper level
ridge is over southern Alaska, which is and extension of the
Massive western North America High. This ridge is retreating
northward as the Gulf low approaches. Further west, there is a
strong low west of the Aleutians, with a Storm Force front over
the western Aleutians. A weak negatively tilted ridge is over the
central Aleutians stretching northwest across the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in reasonably good agreement through
Monday afternoon. There are some differences in the exact speed
and path of the strong low that moves from the southwest Gulf into
southwest Alaska Sunday night, but the basic impactful weather
associated with this low is similar. The precipitation type
continues to be a forecast challenge, and this lowers the forecast
confidence to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
tonight. Some rain showers are possible late this evening into
Sunday morning with a weak front moving through, but ceilings and
visibilities should stay VFR. There may be some freezing rain as
this rain starts, but temperatures should be slowly rising through
the night and any freezing rain is not expected to be around long
before turning to rain. After the front moves through, some
breezy southeast winds are expected to develop Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An active pattern continues across Southcentral through Monday as
a pair of systems tracks into the Gulf. The first of these systems
will move through tonight as a low tracks over Kodiak Island and
the associated front moves over the Gulf coast. Precipitation will
mainly be rain at sea level, with another few inches of snow
through Thompson Pass as snow levels generally hover around 2000
ft. A brief round of mixed precipitation is possible tonight for
inland locations including the Anchorage Bowl before downslope
flow takes hold and dries these areas out. A brief period of
strong winds will move through favored gaps including Turnagain
Arm as the front pushes inland. The next system arriving Sunday
night into Monday will be stronger than the first and also a
little farther to the south, but will otherwise will behave much
the same as the first. The bulk of the precipitation will once
again fall along the coast, with primarily rain at sea level and
snow mixing in at higher elevations. Gap winds will be stronger
with this system, with a potential Chinook setup for Anchorage on
Monday as the low moves into Southwest AK and allows gusty winds
to spread into the Bowl. With these winds, temperatures are
expected to be quite warm throughout Southcentral, with temps
topping out in the low to mid 40s across Anchorage.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The synoptic flow will be primarily northeasterly, which is
offshore and more of a drying flow. Although last night saw dense
fog in the Kuskokwim Delta, fog should be less intense and for a
shorter duration tonight, as an approaching trough from the
southeast will bring some instability to the area after about
midnight. This trough is associated with a low that is approaching
the southwest from the Gulf of Alaska, which will bring another
slug of warm air through Southwest tomorrow. Mixed precipitation
is expected in the Bristol Bay region beginning tomorrow morning.
Right now there is a slight potential for freezing rain with this
trough, but temperatures should warm quickly, making for a fast
switch to rain, particularly in the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low pressure system currently positioned west of the
Aleutian islands is bringing storm force winds into the western
Aleutians tonight. This storm is not expected to move much in the
next few days, so the front will linger in the Central and Western
Aleutians. Between this storm and the mainland, northerly winds
will bring snow showers to most of the Bering Sea. As the low in
the Gulf moves northward and tightens the gradient, winds will
pick up to Gale force over the Central Bering, which is fairly
seasonable for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The subtropical jet continues to keep an active pattern over
southern Alaska through the next work week. However the upper
level pattern shifts from high amplitude to a zonal flow which
sets up just south of the Aleutian chain heading into the middle
of next week. This upper level change is significant as it will
lead to a cooler trend Wednesday through Friday.

Models are struggling with the pattern shift mid week as they vary
on how quickly they break down the high amplitude ridge over
Southeast Alaska. Kept forecast updates conservative as models
tend to break ridging down too quickly. The most notable change
arrives with cold air advection across the Bering early Monday
with a front plunging south across the Aleutian Chain. The front
gains eastward momentum on Wednesday allowing colder air to wrap
into the following lows moving toward the southern mainland during
the second half of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 127-129 136 137 140 141 160 177 179 181 185.
		 Storm 119 120 125 130-132 138 139 150 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LF
LONG TERM...KH