Small Craft Advisory 935, NWS Anchorage, AK

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 080052
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-081400-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the Gulf coast will move inland tonight. A 999 mb low 
will develop 200 nm south of Cape Suckling Fri morning, move to 
Middleton Island Fri evening and dissipate Fri night. A 982 mb low 
200 nm south of Chignik late Fri morning will move to 100 nm south of
Sand Point Fri evening then to 250 nm south of Sand Point Sat 
afternoon. A 984 mb low 250 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sat morning will
move to 100 nm southwest of Sitkinak Sat afternoon at 981 mb.

$$

PKZ119-081400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Near
the coast, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt diminishing
to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ120-081400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 15 kt.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ121-081400-
Resurrection Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-081400-
Prince William Sound-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 45 kt in the evening near Hinchinbrook Entrance. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-081400-
Port Valdez-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-081400-
Valdez Narrows-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-081400-
Valdez Arm-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-081400-
Passage Canal-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-081400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 5 
ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-081400-
Barren Islands East-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-081400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-081400-
Chiniak Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-081400-
Marmot Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-081400-
Shelikof Strait-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-081400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-081400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-081400-
Kachemak Bay-
352 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt except E 10 kt over the
outer Bay. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt except E 10 kt over the outer 
Bay. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

497 
FZAK51 PAFC 081242
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090215-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 mb low 470 nm southeast of Sand Point moves to 340 nm
southeast of Sand Point at 982 mb Fri night. The low then moves
100 nm south of Sand Point at 988 mb Sat night. A strong front 
remains nearly stationary in the eastern Gulf through Sat night. 

$$

PKZ119-090215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090215-
Resurrection Bay-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090215-
Prince William Sound-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090215-
Port Valdez-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090215-
Valdez Narrows-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090215-
Valdez Arm-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090215-
Passage Canal-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090215-
Barren Islands East-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090215-
Chiniak Bay-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090215-
Marmot Bay-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090215-
Shelikof Strait-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090215-
Kachemak Bay-
342 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Wed Dec 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The high amplitude pattern continues with a ridge over the
Southeast and a broad trough over the Bering. The next low of
concern is spinning south of the Alaska Peninsula with abundant
moisture streaming across the gulf and through the Copper River
Basin. At the surface, rain is developing across the northeast
gulf waters along a boundary that is shifting east, with snow
moving inland as warm moist air advects along southerly flow.
Impressive snow amounted across Thompson Pass today with 40" or more
inches observed from the SNOTEL stations and 12" inches across
Valdez observed during morning observations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with the synoptic pattern
with slight differences in the track of the next low approaching
the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning. The grids were updated
with use of the GFS for the Southwest mainland initially going to
a blended approach for Friday while higher resolution models of
the NAM were used for the Gulf and Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Localized fog will be in the vicinity of the airport late
this afternoon through early evening. However, strengthening
northerlies from 06z onward along with increasing clouds from the
east should help kick out the fog. Patchy light precipitation will
be in the area tomorrow, and all indications are it would fall as
freezing rain. The surface temperature may rise above freezing
during the afternoon with precipitation continuing in the form of
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong upper level trough over the Pacific will continue to
send a deep moisture plume north into the Gulf of Alaska. The
heavy precipitation shield has transited east through the day
today but is expected to reorient itself back to the west as the
supporting upper level jet takes a more westward jive tomorrow.
This means the atmospheric river will move back over the Prince
William Sound bringing another round of heavy precipitation to
the Valdez and Thompson Pass areas. Even more warm air is expected
to surge north so snow levels should rise to nearly 2500 ft in
the afternoon. In lower elevation spots, including Valdez,
precipitation will start out as snow with surface temps at or
below freezing, but warm air aloft will likely lead to a period of
freezing rain which will transition over to all rain by the
afternoon. Total snowfall at Thompson Pass is expected to be in
the 1.5-2.5 ft range through Friday afternoon. The Copper River
Basin is also expected to see a mix of precipitation tomorrow,
with snow changing to freezing rain to all rain for lower
elevations with mostly all snow for higher elevation spots.

Further west, a surface low will move north over Kodiak tomorrow
which should lead to stronger SE'ly winds through the gaps and
some downsloping. This will initially cut off precipitation for
the populated areas but as the low moves north precipitation will
spread up the Cook Inlet bringing rain, with the chance of some
freezing rain mixing in initially, late in the morning from the
Western Kenai Peninsula north into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley.
Precipitation will likely stay as all snow in the Western Susitna
Valley tomorrow, leading to 4-8 inches for the foothills of the
Alaska Range including Skwentna.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A short-wave ridge is currently progressing from south to north
across the region, and this will continue to provide drier
conditions to Southwest Alaska for the next 18 to 24 hours. The
exception to this will be from Nunivak Island inland towards
Russian Mission, as locations north and west of this line will
continue to see a few snow showers through at least the evening as
they are grazed by a cold front lifting northeastward from the
northern Bering Sea towards Norton Sound.

The next player in our weather will be an area of low pressure
currently located well south of the AKpen. This low will lift
northward across the the peninsula into Bristol Bay for the
Thursday through Friday afternoon time frame. It's associated
occluded front will enter the area Thursday before undergoing
frontolysis during the evening. Some semblance of the front,
likely in the form of an inverted trough, will continue to rotate
across the region from east to west on Friday while the low
dissolves across the bay. Either of these features will bring
periods of light to occasionally moderate precipitation, with snow
being the predominant precipitation type based on point soundings.
However, some warmer air will advect northward as the system
approaches, with locations south of a King Salmon to Port
Alsworth line warming enough to see an eventual changeover to
either a mix of rain and snow or all rain for Thursday evening
onward. The same holds true for the Akpen during this time. The
active weather pattern looks to hold as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A well-organized area of low pressure, on the order of 985 mb,
continues to trek east southeast while paralleling the central
Aleutians this afternoon, with its current position roughly 100
miles south of Amchitka. An associated warm front extends to the
northeast, with it being close enough for the overrunning
precipitation to reach the chain in the form of snow. The snowfall
has been rather intense at times, as a with a visibilities having
been reduced to 1/4 of a mile at times at Atka, and somewhat
higher values at Adak and Dutch Harbor. This trend will continue
through the evening, before precipitation becomes lighter and more
scattered as the low moves away.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will continue to wobble
across the western Bering through Friday morning while sending a
weak cold front south toward western portions of the chain. Snow
showers will persist across much of the bering and near the low,
with some enhanced coverage of precipitation likely along the
front as it approaches.

Finally, a third area of low pressure will lift up from the
northern Pacific into the AKpen in the Thursday through Friday
evening time frame, providing another round of widespread
precipitation from Cold Bay eastward. Here, snow will likely
change to a mix of rain and snow or all liquid precipitation as
warm air is drawn northward ahead of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern will remain largely unchanged into the middle of next
week as a stout ridge persists over the west coast of the CONUS
and numerous systems track northward towards the Alaska mainland
in deep southerly flow. This means a continuation of warm
temperatures running well above seasonal normal values for much of
the southern mainland, with rainy conditions along the Gulf
coast and snow possibly mixing in at higher elevations. Many
inland locations will remain on the drier side due to fairly
persistent downslope flow, with only sporadic opportunities for
showers as various systems move through. The most noteworthy
system to monitor in the long term looks to be a deep low tracking
through the western Gulf Sunday night, bringing the potential for
very windy conditions to Anchorage and other favored locations
through Monday afternoon depending on how the system evolves.
Meanwhile, the Bering will also remain in an unsettled pattern
through next week, though no major systems are expected with the
exception of a strong North Pacific low which will provide a
glancing blow to the Western Aleutians on Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 131 141 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 125 130 138 139.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB