Gale Warning 672, NWS Anchorage, AK

107 
FZAK62 PAFC 080020
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081415-
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 mb low at 58n 179w will move to 57n 175w Fri morning and
dissipate Fri afternoon. A 983 mb low at 55n 159w will move to 
58n 165w Fri afternoon and dissipate Fri night. A 982 mb low at 
53n 157w late Fri morning will move to 54n 160w Fri evening then 
to 52n 160w Sat afternoon. A 984 mb low at 53n 151w Sat morning 
will move to 55n 155w Sat afternoon at 981 mb. 

$$

PKZ411-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
320 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

353 
FZAK62 PAFC 081246
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090145-
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 mb low at 57N 177W moves to 56N 172W at 996 mb and 
dissipates Fri afternoon. A front over the eastern Gulf moves over
the AKPEN Fri afternoon and then moves west into the eastern 
Bering Fri night. The front reaches the central Aleutians by Sat 
night. A second stronger front approaches the western Aleutians
Sat and enters the southwestern Bering Sat night.

$$

PKZ411-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 to 10 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

906 
FZAK62 PAFC 090009
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091400-
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A complex 981 mb low near 52N 157W remains nearly stationary while 
weakening through Sat night. A 954 mb low at 52N 166E Sat afternoon 
moves to 52N 162E at 979 mb Sun afternoon. A 969 mb North Pacific low
moves to 51N 149W by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 PM AKST Fri Dec 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 to 10 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

151 
FZAK62 PAFC 091233
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100230-
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a Kamchatka low approaches the southwest 
Bering and moves over the western Aleutians tonight. A 978 mb low
forms tonight at 50N 178E and moves into the Northern Pacific Sun
night. A front associated with a 966 mb low at 56N 155W moves into
the southeast Bering Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-100230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Wed Dec 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The high amplitude pattern continues with a ridge over the
Southeast and a broad trough over the Bering. The next low of
concern is spinning south of the Alaska Peninsula with abundant
moisture streaming across the gulf and through the Copper River
Basin. At the surface, rain is developing across the northeast
gulf waters along a boundary that is shifting east, with snow
moving inland as warm moist air advects along southerly flow.
Impressive snow amounted across Thompson Pass today with 40" or more
inches observed from the SNOTEL stations and 12" inches across
Valdez observed during morning observations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with the synoptic pattern
with slight differences in the track of the next low approaching
the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning. The grids were updated
with use of the GFS for the Southwest mainland initially going to
a blended approach for Friday while higher resolution models of
the NAM were used for the Gulf and Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Localized fog will be in the vicinity of the airport late
this afternoon through early evening. However, strengthening
northerlies from 06z onward along with increasing clouds from the
east should help kick out the fog. Patchy light precipitation will
be in the area tomorrow, and all indications are it would fall as
freezing rain. The surface temperature may rise above freezing
during the afternoon with precipitation continuing in the form of
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong upper level trough over the Pacific will continue to
send a deep moisture plume north into the Gulf of Alaska. The
heavy precipitation shield has transited east through the day
today but is expected to reorient itself back to the west as the
supporting upper level jet takes a more westward jive tomorrow.
This means the atmospheric river will move back over the Prince
William Sound bringing another round of heavy precipitation to
the Valdez and Thompson Pass areas. Even more warm air is expected
to surge north so snow levels should rise to nearly 2500 ft in
the afternoon. In lower elevation spots, including Valdez,
precipitation will start out as snow with surface temps at or
below freezing, but warm air aloft will likely lead to a period of
freezing rain which will transition over to all rain by the
afternoon. Total snowfall at Thompson Pass is expected to be in
the 1.5-2.5 ft range through Friday afternoon. The Copper River
Basin is also expected to see a mix of precipitation tomorrow,
with snow changing to freezing rain to all rain for lower
elevations with mostly all snow for higher elevation spots.

Further west, a surface low will move north over Kodiak tomorrow
which should lead to stronger SE'ly winds through the gaps and
some downsloping. This will initially cut off precipitation for
the populated areas but as the low moves north precipitation will
spread up the Cook Inlet bringing rain, with the chance of some
freezing rain mixing in initially, late in the morning from the
Western Kenai Peninsula north into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley.
Precipitation will likely stay as all snow in the Western Susitna
Valley tomorrow, leading to 4-8 inches for the foothills of the
Alaska Range including Skwentna.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A short-wave ridge is currently progressing from south to north
across the region, and this will continue to provide drier
conditions to Southwest Alaska for the next 18 to 24 hours. The
exception to this will be from Nunivak Island inland towards
Russian Mission, as locations north and west of this line will
continue to see a few snow showers through at least the evening as
they are grazed by a cold front lifting northeastward from the
northern Bering Sea towards Norton Sound.

The next player in our weather will be an area of low pressure
currently located well south of the AKpen. This low will lift
northward across the the peninsula into Bristol Bay for the
Thursday through Friday afternoon time frame. It's associated
occluded front will enter the area Thursday before undergoing
frontolysis during the evening. Some semblance of the front,
likely in the form of an inverted trough, will continue to rotate
across the region from east to west on Friday while the low
dissolves across the bay. Either of these features will bring
periods of light to occasionally moderate precipitation, with snow
being the predominant precipitation type based on point soundings.
However, some warmer air will advect northward as the system
approaches, with locations south of a King Salmon to Port
Alsworth line warming enough to see an eventual changeover to
either a mix of rain and snow or all rain for Thursday evening
onward. The same holds true for the Akpen during this time. The
active weather pattern looks to hold as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A well-organized area of low pressure, on the order of 985 mb,
continues to trek east southeast while paralleling the central
Aleutians this afternoon, with its current position roughly 100
miles south of Amchitka. An associated warm front extends to the
northeast, with it being close enough for the overrunning
precipitation to reach the chain in the form of snow. The snowfall
has been rather intense at times, as a with a visibilities having
been reduced to 1/4 of a mile at times at Atka, and somewhat
higher values at Adak and Dutch Harbor. This trend will continue
through the evening, before precipitation becomes lighter and more
scattered as the low moves away.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will continue to wobble
across the western Bering through Friday morning while sending a
weak cold front south toward western portions of the chain. Snow
showers will persist across much of the bering and near the low,
with some enhanced coverage of precipitation likely along the
front as it approaches.

Finally, a third area of low pressure will lift up from the
northern Pacific into the AKpen in the Thursday through Friday
evening time frame, providing another round of widespread
precipitation from Cold Bay eastward. Here, snow will likely
change to a mix of rain and snow or all liquid precipitation as
warm air is drawn northward ahead of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern will remain largely unchanged into the middle of next
week as a stout ridge persists over the west coast of the CONUS
and numerous systems track northward towards the Alaska mainland
in deep southerly flow. This means a continuation of warm
temperatures running well above seasonal normal values for much of
the southern mainland, with rainy conditions along the Gulf
coast and snow possibly mixing in at higher elevations. Many
inland locations will remain on the drier side due to fairly
persistent downslope flow, with only sporadic opportunities for
showers as various systems move through. The most noteworthy
system to monitor in the long term looks to be a deep low tracking
through the western Gulf Sunday night, bringing the potential for
very windy conditions to Anchorage and other favored locations
through Monday afternoon depending on how the system evolves.
Meanwhile, the Bering will also remain in an unsettled pattern
through next week, though no major systems are expected with the
exception of a strong North Pacific low which will provide a
glancing blow to the Western Aleutians on Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 131 141 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 125 130 138 139.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB