Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Anchorage, AK

538 
FZAK52 PAFC 251255
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260145-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO LOCATED 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS
ACTIVE. A 967 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES OVER
NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 976 MB BY FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
STRETCHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THU MORNING WITH A TRAILING
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-260145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-260145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-260145-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ165-260145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 9 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-260145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-260145-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-260145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-260145-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-260145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-260145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-260145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-260145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-260145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-260145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-260145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-260145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-260145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

569 
FZAK52 PAFC 260011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261300-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 967
MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF KING COVE MOVES TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN AT 973
MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK AT 984
MB FRI AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The low pressure system that brought widespread blizzard and
blowing snow conditions to the Aleutian Islands and Southwest
Alaska continues to quickly fall apart over the Alaska Peninsula
this morning. A very potent warm front remains attached to this
low pressure system and is currently draped across the northern
Gulf of Alaska pushing toward the gulf coast. Temperatures across
the gulf coast have mostly warmed above freezing this morning as
warm air surges northward and this warm air should continue to
move inland throughout the day. Scatterometer data showed a 40 to
50 kt barrier jet set up south of Cordova overnight which has
diminished as the front weakened this morning. Southwest Alaska
continues to feel the the effects of the frontal occlusion as
scattered to numerous snow showers continue to be seen north of
King Salmon. Blowing snow has ceased across Southwest Alaska as
winds weaken, precipitation intensity diminishes and precipitation
type over Bristol Bay has changed over to rain.

A highly amplified upper level pattern is observed on water vapor
imagery this morning as an upper level trough extends from the
Bering Sea southward to 38N 156W. This amplified trough is the
reason for the change in weather pattern/temperature pattern as
warmer air from the subtropics is bringing warmer temperatures and
the increased moisture has led to some of the more recent snow
events across the state. The upper levels are actually quite
chaotic with numerous shortwave embedded within the longwave
pattern which will likely allow this amplified pattern to continue
for some time.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement overall this morning. Numerical
guidance is having a rather difficult time resolving two areas of
low pressure over the Bering Sea through the short-term forecast
with the first being the low that brought strong wind and blizzard
conditions to the Bering Sea Sunday and Monday. This low is expected
to split with one moving into the Bering Sea north of Cold Bay and
the other moving into the North Pacific. Models aren't exactly in
good agreement on the placement of the lows which slightly impacts
winds and seas over the southeastern Bering Sea.
Another discrepancy is another low pressure system skirting south
of the Aleutians through the week. This low likely gets stretched
out and has multiple low centers which are not resolved well by
models. This has only minor impacts in regards to the precip pattern
across the Aleutians. Models are actually in pretty good agreement
with snow changing to rain across Southcentral Alaska so far which
is encouraging for gathering rain/snow amounts for the forecast.
Overall a blend of the ECMWF and GFS was used for forecast package
updates this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions should prevail through at least the first
half of the morning hours before scattered snow showers move
across the Anchorage Bowl. There is a good chance that between 18Z
and 00Z the airport could see several snow showers with minor
accumulations possible. Snowfall should clear by later afternoon
and a return to VFR conditions is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snowfall and gusty winds associated with a coastal front continue
to diminish as the front pushes inland and falls apart this
morning. A second front will approach the north Gulf Coast
Wednesday and bring another shot of strong gusty winds and
precipitation to much of the region. It appears that Anchorage
will be mostly downsloped, with the bulk of the precipitation
falling along the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Strong gusts are
possible especially through eastern Turnagain arm late Wednesday
night into Thursday as an associated triple point low pushes over
northern Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of the front that made landfall over Bristol Bay
yesterday morning has now spread northward into the Kuskokwim
Delta. Downsloping off the Kilbuck Mountains hasn't developed as
strong as initially expected, and as a result snow accumulations
for the Bethel area were increased today. With continued gusty
offshore winds areas of blowing snow will continue, though
visibilities are expected to remain above one-half mile. The front
should dissipate outside of the area by this evening,
however cyclonic flow aloft will continue into Wednesday. This
will bring continued cloudy conditions and snow showers,
especially to western Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. A
stronger low approaching Bristol Bay from the Gulf on Thursday
will then bring widespread accumulating snow back to the area for
the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread snow showers and northerly winds will continue over
much of the Western-Central Bering as low pressure sets up over
the Eastern Bering. The pressure gradient is relatively weak for
this pattern this time of year, so winds should generally remain
below gale force through mid-week. A weak low approaching the AK
pen on Wednesday afternoon will bring a chance of rain and snow,
but this system will be rapidly falling apart so anything should
that develops shouldn't be widespread or significant.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The main challenge for Wednesday night into Thursday will be the re-
enforcing warm front which moves from the gulf to the coast. There
is uncertainty on the track of the surface low that pulls the
front into the mainland. At this time, the low is expected to
cross from the Pacific to the eastern Bering. Precipitation along
the front over the gulf will be rain which is expected to spread
inland creating a mix of rain and snow or changing over to rain by
Thursday afternoon. The other big challenge will be wind with this
front. A tight pressure gradient along the front will bring gusty
conditions across the gulf and for much of the southern mainland
as the front moves inland. East to West oriented gaps will see
the strongest winds with this system.

The weather trend through the end of the week continues above
normal for temperatures and precipitation for the southern
mainland with a cooler trend remaining across the Bering as the
long wave trough remains centered over the Bering. The upper level
pattern should shift east this weekend and bring cooler
temperatures back to Southcentral as strong shortwaves move off
of the Kamchatka Peninsula forcing the upper low center closer to
the west coast. The weather pattern continues in an active regime
into the beginning of next week. Details in the extended forecast
will need to be monitored as models have multiple strong waves to
handle.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 131.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1009 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

AKZ185-250300-
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of...Unalaska...Nikolski
1009 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

...The threat of ashfall has ended...

The threat for trace ashfall accumulations has ended from the
most recent eruption this morning. No ashfall has been reported
this morning.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1136 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

AKZ101-111-121-125-141-145-252115-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-
Western Prince William Sound-Copper River Basin-Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of...Anchorage...Eagle River...Indian...
Eklutna...Palmer...Wasilla...Sutton...Chickaloon...Kenai...
Soldotna...Homer...Cooper Landing...Whittier...Seward...
Girdwood...Moose Pass...Glennallen...Eureka...McCarthy...Paxson...
Slana...Talkeetna...Willow...Cantwell
1136 AM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Major pattern change expected later this week...

Temperatures are expected to dramatically warm up across most of
Southern Alaska Thursday into Friday. This will be accompanied by
powerful winds down Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm of 50 to 60
MPH with higher gusts possible. The moisture associated with the
front will also bring heavy snow to higher elevations of the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula including Turnagain Pass. Eventually the
low will move inland, and this will allow for warm "chinook" winds
to spread into interior locations of Southcentral. This represents
a major change in the weather pattern from cold and snowy to
rather warm, with temperatures pushing above freezing across many
locales. With light rain showers along with the warm temperatures,
expect the possibility of potentially slick roads as subsurface
road temperatures will remain well below freezing.