Gale Warning 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

569 
FZAK52 PAFC 260011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261300-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 967
MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF KING COVE MOVES TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN AT 973
MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK AT 984
MB FRI AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main upper level feature of interest across the region this
afternoon is a broad upper level trough stretching from the Bering
Sea into the Northeast Pacific. Southern Alaska is embedded in the
weak southerly flow ahead of the main upper trough axis with water
vapor satellite imagery depicting a series of weaker shortwave
troughs embedded within. The main upper level Pacific jet stream
is displaced well south of the Aleutian chain, and this will be
the source of future weather as lows form along the left exit
region of the upper jet and move toward the North Gulf Coast.

At the surface, a broad surface low is centered over the Eastern
Bering Sea east of the Pribilof Islands with another weak low
center south of Kodiak Island. The remainder of the Bering Sea is
under the influence of moderate northerly cyclonic flow with
instability driven snow showers (and blowing snow across the
Pribilof Islands). Snow and rain showers are most prevalent along
the Kenai Peninsula with snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay region. Some light snow is also being observed in
the Copper Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement with the general large scale
synoptic pattern heading into the weekend. However, they are in
lesser agreement with smaller scale details regarding low tracks
as they move north into both the Bering Sea and the North Gulf
Coast. The main concern, however, is a strong warm front moving
into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night and Thursday. The NAM
an Canadian global models are outliers with respect to timing and
strength, so the GFS and ECMWF were favored. This means the
strongest winds down Turnagain Arm and the warming into inland
locales will likely occur earlier as the front moves toward the
coast faster. This will eventually bring chinook winds into
Anchorage and other inland locations by Thursday afternoon as the
low moves quickly into the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period.
A flurry or two can not be ruled out, but there should be no
impact to vis or cigs. Low level wind shear will be possible
Wednesday afternoon as southeast winds aloft increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong warm front will approach the north Gulf Coast Wednesday
afternoon, and bring another shot of strong gusty winds and
precipitation to much of the region through Friday. It appears
that Anchorage will be mostly downsloped for this event, with the
bulk of the precipitation falling along the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, including Turnagain Pass. Eventually the low will
move inland, and this will allow for warm "chinook" winds to
spread into interior locations of Southcentral. Temperatures are
expected to dramatically warm up across most of Southern Alaska
Thursday into Friday. This will be accompanied by strong gap winds
surrounding Prince William Sound and along Turnagain arm, with the
more powerful winds expected down Portage Valley and Turnagain
Arm.

There is higher confidence in this major pattern change from cold
and snowy to rather warm and windy, with temperatures pushing
above freezing across many locales by the end of the week.
However, guidance is still working out the finer details with
regards to timing and positioning of the low, which directly
effects the transition from snow to rain and the strength of the
winds through local gaps.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...
Lingering moisture associated with an upper level low drifting towards
the north central Bering will continue to make for wet weather in
Southwest AK for the next 24 hours. Generally south to southeast
flow will keep temperatures relatively mild compared to where they
were a week ago. Most places will remain snow, but there could be
enough warm air to see some rain mix in along the Bristol Bay
coast. By late Wed, a new warm front will approach the area from
the Gulf of AK. This will bring another round of precipitation
from Bristol Bay up through the Kuskokwim Delta through Thu. It
will also bring another shot of warm SE winds. This could allow
some mixed precipitation to spread even further north into the
Delta. The winds should also be enough to create some downsloping
conditions on the leeward side of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A broad upper level trough will keep the weather divided into two
very different regimes. Over the eastern Bering, several weak lows
will track from Bristol Bay north towards St. Lawrence Island.
This will keep temperatures mild and good chance for rain and/or
snow across much of the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, for the
central and western Bering, cold air will continue to filter in
from the Chukchi Sea. This will result in widespread cold air
advection snow showers and gusty winds. A quasi-deformation
boundary will set up just west of the Pribilof Islands on Wed and
serve to focus the heaviest snowfall. This will stretch towards
the Pribilofs and down into Dutch Harbor by late Wed night and
over towards Cold Bay early Thu. This will likely result in
blowing snow conditions, but we will have to refine just how low
the visibility will go. Then there looks to be another shortwave
dropping in from near the Olyutorsky Peninsula towards the Western
Aleutians on Thu. This will bring more snow and gusty winds to
places from Shemya to Atka.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Thursday night through the weekend the dominant upper low over the
Bering stays in a highly active cycle, pinwheeling strong waves
around it's periphery. There is high uncertainty in this pattern
as models diverge in solution Thursday night as the first
significant wave rounds the base of the broad trough over the
eastern gulf and then begins to lift north. At the same time,
energy from the Arctic and Subtropics feed into the backside of
this system. Overall, the southern mainland and surrounding waters
continue with an active precipitation pattern. The biggest
uncertainty in the extended forecast is how the temperatures
modify between the colder air being pulled in from the Arctic
while warm air intrudes from the Subtropics.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind watch 101 and 125.
MARINE...Storm 119 125. Gale 120 130-131 351-352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH