Gale Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

673 
FZAK62 PAFC 260011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261400-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 967 MB LOW NEAR 53N
162W MOVES TO 57N 159W AT 973 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 60N
166W AT 984 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

021 
FZAK62 PAFC 261258
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270215-
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 970 MB LOW AT 54N
158W AND A 970 MB LOW AT 58N 165W MERGES TO FORM A 975 MB LOW NEAR
60N 169W FRI MORNING. THIS LOW MOVES TO 61N 169W BY SAT MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
358 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

028 
FZAK62 PAFC 270001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271415-
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 59N
168W DRIFTS TO 60N 167N AT 979 MB FRI AFTERNOON THEN MOVES TO 63N
172W AT 987 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
301 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

072 
FZAK62 PAFC 271233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280145-
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 976 MB LOW AT 61N
171W WILL MOVE TO 63N 172W AT 990 MB BY SAT NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-280145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

026 
FZAK62 PAFC 272351
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281400-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 975 MB LOW NEAR 60N
170W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHEN INTO A 972 MB LOW NEAR 58N
175W BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main upper level feature of interest across the region this
afternoon is a broad upper level trough stretching from the Bering
Sea into the Northeast Pacific. Southern Alaska is embedded in the
weak southerly flow ahead of the main upper trough axis with water
vapor satellite imagery depicting a series of weaker shortwave
troughs embedded within. The main upper level Pacific jet stream
is displaced well south of the Aleutian chain, and this will be
the source of future weather as lows form along the left exit
region of the upper jet and move toward the North Gulf Coast.

At the surface, a broad surface low is centered over the Eastern
Bering Sea east of the Pribilof Islands with another weak low
center south of Kodiak Island. The remainder of the Bering Sea is
under the influence of moderate northerly cyclonic flow with
instability driven snow showers (and blowing snow across the
Pribilof Islands). Snow and rain showers are most prevalent along
the Kenai Peninsula with snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay region. Some light snow is also being observed in
the Copper Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement with the general large scale
synoptic pattern heading into the weekend. However, they are in
lesser agreement with smaller scale details regarding low tracks
as they move north into both the Bering Sea and the North Gulf
Coast. The main concern, however, is a strong warm front moving
into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night and Thursday. The NAM
an Canadian global models are outliers with respect to timing and
strength, so the GFS and ECMWF were favored. This means the
strongest winds down Turnagain Arm and the warming into inland
locales will likely occur earlier as the front moves toward the
coast faster. This will eventually bring chinook winds into
Anchorage and other inland locations by Thursday afternoon as the
low moves quickly into the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period.
A flurry or two can not be ruled out, but there should be no
impact to vis or cigs. Low level wind shear will be possible
Wednesday afternoon as southeast winds aloft increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong warm front will approach the north Gulf Coast Wednesday
afternoon, and bring another shot of strong gusty winds and
precipitation to much of the region through Friday. It appears
that Anchorage will be mostly downsloped for this event, with the
bulk of the precipitation falling along the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, including Turnagain Pass. Eventually the low will
move inland, and this will allow for warm "chinook" winds to
spread into interior locations of Southcentral. Temperatures are
expected to dramatically warm up across most of Southern Alaska
Thursday into Friday. This will be accompanied by strong gap winds
surrounding Prince William Sound and along Turnagain arm, with the
more powerful winds expected down Portage Valley and Turnagain
Arm.

There is higher confidence in this major pattern change from cold
and snowy to rather warm and windy, with temperatures pushing
above freezing across many locales by the end of the week.
However, guidance is still working out the finer details with
regards to timing and positioning of the low, which directly
effects the transition from snow to rain and the strength of the
winds through local gaps.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...
Lingering moisture associated with an upper level low drifting towards
the north central Bering will continue to make for wet weather in
Southwest AK for the next 24 hours. Generally south to southeast
flow will keep temperatures relatively mild compared to where they
were a week ago. Most places will remain snow, but there could be
enough warm air to see some rain mix in along the Bristol Bay
coast. By late Wed, a new warm front will approach the area from
the Gulf of AK. This will bring another round of precipitation
from Bristol Bay up through the Kuskokwim Delta through Thu. It
will also bring another shot of warm SE winds. This could allow
some mixed precipitation to spread even further north into the
Delta. The winds should also be enough to create some downsloping
conditions on the leeward side of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A broad upper level trough will keep the weather divided into two
very different regimes. Over the eastern Bering, several weak lows
will track from Bristol Bay north towards St. Lawrence Island.
This will keep temperatures mild and good chance for rain and/or
snow across much of the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, for the
central and western Bering, cold air will continue to filter in
from the Chukchi Sea. This will result in widespread cold air
advection snow showers and gusty winds. A quasi-deformation
boundary will set up just west of the Pribilof Islands on Wed and
serve to focus the heaviest snowfall. This will stretch towards
the Pribilofs and down into Dutch Harbor by late Wed night and
over towards Cold Bay early Thu. This will likely result in
blowing snow conditions, but we will have to refine just how low
the visibility will go. Then there looks to be another shortwave
dropping in from near the Olyutorsky Peninsula towards the Western
Aleutians on Thu. This will bring more snow and gusty winds to
places from Shemya to Atka.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Thursday night through the weekend the dominant upper low over the
Bering stays in a highly active cycle, pinwheeling strong waves
around it's periphery. There is high uncertainty in this pattern
as models diverge in solution Thursday night as the first
significant wave rounds the base of the broad trough over the
eastern gulf and then begins to lift north. At the same time,
energy from the Arctic and Subtropics feed into the backside of
this system. Overall, the southern mainland and surrounding waters
continue with an active precipitation pattern. The biggest
uncertainty in the extended forecast is how the temperatures
modify between the colder air being pulled in from the Arctic
while warm air intrudes from the Subtropics.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind watch 101 and 125.
MARINE...Storm 119 125. Gale 120 130-131 351-352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH