Small Craft Advisory 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

389 
FZAK52 PAFC 020135 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021430-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 mb low 120 nm Southeast of Sand Point moves over Togiak at 
988 mb Midday Mon. The associated front pushes over the Gulf Coast
for Mon evening. A 994 mb 250 nm South of Adak sweeps 735 nm South
of Kodiak at 993 mb Tue afternoon. A 988 mb Kamchatka low slips 
to 350 nm North of Attu at 992 mb with its associated front moving
to the Central Bering by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021430-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021430-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021430-
Bristol Bay-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021430-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 40 kt
becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021430-
Unalaska Bay-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021430-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021430-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021430-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021430-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021430-
Adak to Kiska-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021430-
Kiska to Attu-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021430-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021430-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021430-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021430-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
535 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

624 
FZAK52 PAFC 021156
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030100-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front associated with a 987 mb low 35 nm southeast of Chignik 
pushes over the Gulf Coast for Mon night. A second low of 986 mb 
220 nm southeast of Adak moves to 480 nm south of Sand Point at 998
mb Mon night and will move into the Gulf Tue night. A 992 mb 
Kamchatka low moves 150 nm north of Shemya at 972 mb by Tue night.

$$

PKZ150-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030100-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030100-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft early building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030100-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030100-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

395 
FZAK52 PAFC 022348
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031315-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb low 385 nm Northwest of Attu will intensify to 963 mb and
move to 300 nm Northwest of St Paul Wed afternoon. A 991 mb low 400 
nm South of Dutch Harbor will move to to 650 nm South of Kodiak at 
1009 mb Wed morning and then dissipate. 

$$

PKZ150-031315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031315-
Bristol Bay-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031315-
Unalaska Bay-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031315-
Adak to Kiska-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031315-
Kiska to Attu-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

537 
FZAK52 PAFC 031201
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040030-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 mb low 570 nm south of Sand Point moves to 175 nm southeast
of Kodiak City at 1006 mb Tue night and then dissipates. A 994 mb
low 270 nm northeast of Shemya moves to 400 nm north of Adak at 
975 mb by Wednesday morning. An associated front will move across
the western Aleutians through Wednesday night.

$$

PKZ150-040030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas
6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040030-
Bristol Bay-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 20 kt increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040030-
Unalaska Bay-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040030-
Adak to Kiska-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040030-
Kiska to Attu-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure at the surface with an upper level ridge over
southern AK remain the dominant weather feature this morning.
This is leading to overall very quiet weather across the mainland.
The biggest issue this morning is some patchy fog and low stratus
along the north Gulf Coast and in Kachemak Bay. Over the Bering,
a weakening front is starting to stall out along 176W. But...the
bigger story is the rapidly developing area of low pressure near
52N to the SW of Kodiak. This system is moving north on a 130 kt
piece of the subtropical jet and it is bringing some of that
subtropical air with it. This means it will bring a good slug of
rain to Kodiak Island and much of the Gulf Coast. There have even
been a few lightning strikes associated with it over the North
Pacific overnight, indicating a healthy amount of instability as
well. Over the Western Aleutians, another finger of the jet is
moving from west to east at 150 kts. This energy will eventually
make it towards the Gulf of AK and will help to keep the weather
pattern rather active this week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in decent agreement on most major features. The most
important item of interest is that they have been playing "catch-
up" to the storm moving towards the Alaska Peninsula. They were
slow to resolve it a few days ago. Now they are struggling to keep
up with its speed and strength. There is a better consensus this
morning on timing and placement, but there is still some
uncertainty with how strong it will get and when. The higher
resolution NAM Nest was used early on to best capture the stronger
winds and heavier rain. The GFS was relied upon towards the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through the TAF
period. However, north winds at the surface will increase through
the day. By this evening, expect strong southeast winds to develop
at mountain top and over the Turnagain Arm. This will lead to
some strong wind shear in and around the aerodrome.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong weather system south of Kodiak Island will move rapidly
north today. This system will reach Kodiak Island around midday,
and the Kenai Peninsula by late this afternoon. Gale force winds
are expected throughout the Gulf. Some areas of storm force winds
are also expected over Shelikof strait, near the Barren Islands,
and over the open Gulf southeast of Kodiak. This system will push
inland over Southcentral Alaska this evening through Monday.
Strong winds are expected through Turnagain Arm, the upper
hillside of Anchorage, and Portage Valley. Gusty winds are also
expected through the Knik Valley and Copper River Valley. Even
though this is a fast moving storm, considerable rain is expected
on the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with upwards of two inches
possible tonight through Monday. Plenty of moisture and some
showers will continue over the area through Monday night as the
system pushes further inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus over the next several days will be a strong low
pressure system rapidly approaching from the south today. A warm
front out ahead of the low will rapidly spread rain across the
AKPEN and into the Lower Kuskokwim River Valley beginning this
morning through Monday night. Strong upslope flow will lead to
periods of heavy rain on the east side of the Aleutian and Alaskan
Ranges while downsloping will limit the amount of precipitation
seen on the leeward side, though precipitation will redevelop
over Bristol Bay and move up the Kuskokwim River Valley. However,
the biggest impact from this system will be from high winds as a
southeasterly low level jet moves over the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Winds between 30 to 50 mph will be likely across
the AKPEN with gusts as high as 70 mph through gaps and passes,
including near Kamishak Bay and west across Lake Iliamna.
Locations above 2000 ft along the Alaskan and Aleutian Ranges
could see winds as high as 80 mph on Sunday night as well. Rain
and winds will taper off throughout the day on Monday and the low
center weakens and moves over Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An elongated frontal boundary stretched across the Central Bering
will stall out today and weaken in places before dissipating
Monday evening. A short wave ridge temporarily moves across the
Western Bering and Aleutians before a low coming off of Russia
rapidly moves in Monday night bringing a wide swath of rain and
gale force winds to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Fall storm activity will be on the rise, despite a predominantly
zonal upper level pattern. The biggest area of concern revolves
around a rapidly developing and deepening low pressure system that
will track from near Attu, northeast towards Toksook Bay. Models
have been trending deep over the last day or so and have really
locked in on a 960mb, or deeper, low. An area of storm force
winds, and rather widespread area of gales. Given the long west to
southwesterly fetch of this system, coastal flooding problems
could loom for parts of the SW coast Wednesday night and Thursday.
Secondly, guidance is now agreeing on a low rapidly developing
south of the Gulf of Alaska and shooting north near Prince William
Sound. The rapid pressure rises along the Gulf Coast and through
the Turnagain Arm, could lead to other potential wind problems
closer to the Anchorage metro.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 352.

 Gale Warning 120 125 132 136 137 139 351 150
155 160 165 176 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...SS